Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-08-2018, 02:53 AM   #1
tlytle123
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 227
1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

1/2 Live

Most of the players are loose and passive players.

V is a younger player who plays TAG. Folds a ton preflop and then hammers you post-flop.

Hero has 1100.
V is in the SB with 600.

OTTH

Hero UTG with AK and raises to $7.
3 loose/passive players call.
Player in CO who is a maniac raises to $30.
BTN folds.
V in SB raises to $100.
BB folds.
Hero calls.
Everyone else folds.

Flop: T97 (Pot: 250)

V immediately goes all-in for $500.

So, I took a long time here. I guess what I was trying to figure out is if he would 4-bet 99 or TT pf. There is some math here to figure out if this is profitable to ever make this call. I am calling $500 to win $750 so I need a whopping 66% or so equity to make this call profitable.

Do we just sigh and fold? Is there some math I am missing here?
tlytle123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 03:05 AM   #2
NewClintEastwood
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 165
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Well youd be playing for a 1250 pot so only 40% equity is needed. There's not a lot of hands I'd call with, but this is one of them. 2 overs that don't bring in a straight plus nut flush is very strong.
NewClintEastwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 06:08 AM   #3
ChrisV
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ChrisV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Posts: 40,378
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Instacall. As Clint said, it's 500 to win 1250 total so need 40%.

Preflop seems like a pretty clear fold to the 100, though.
ChrisV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 11:19 AM   #4
shorn7
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,497
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
Instacall. As Clint said, it's 500 to win 1250 total so need 40%.

Preflop seems like a pretty clear fold to the 100, though.
This, although you could also 5! shove pre given you have blockers to AA/KK.
shorn7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 11:27 AM   #5
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 10,636
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

I'm still shocked at the $7 UTG raise, but if that's the norm at the table, I guess it's OK.

I also fold to the $100. If I'm in a more gambly mood, I 5bet/call. However, V 4bet an UTG raise and a maniac, so he's probably pretty strong. As played, call. You might have over-card outs.

BTW, how does V see you and your UTG raise?
Javanewt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 11:44 AM   #6
SwolyswoND
old hand
 
SwolyswoND's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,976
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Yeah I think you have at least one clean over here to go with your NFD, so you'll have the 40% equity you need. I just don't see V playing AA (or 99/TT, frankly) this way. Looks way more like a somewhat scared JJ-KK that is just thrilled that an overcard didn't hit the flop and doesn't want to see any more cards. If V has any AK in his range as well, then a call is even more clear.

All aboard the variance train.
SwolyswoND is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 11:59 AM   #7
monikrazy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
monikrazy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 26,774
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Snap call, even if villain turns over aa faceup calling is only a tiny mistake, hero is something like 1.5% equity shy of break-even

Obviously we are in better shape if our ace is live, we can runner runner a straight to scoop or even chop once in a while to
monikrazy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 12:23 PM   #8
twitcherroo
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 1,932
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

V should have more over pair than sets. Against an overpair it’s a call. Don’t feel great (prefer to be made already) but no hand at all has you in bad shape. Call, bink, rake, stack, tip. Easy game.
twitcherroo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2018, 11:16 PM   #9
Starpoker
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 588
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

From an EV perspective this is a call 100%. I would put his 4b range at QQ+, maybe AK against this specific player. Against that range, you have the right EV, and freerolling when he has AK on rare occasion.

With that said, because the stacks are so deep, I would have folded pre. You've created a super high variance spot that could have been avoided, as this is highly likely to be scared AA.
Starpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-09-2018, 12:29 AM   #10
fightingillini
journeyman
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 281
Re: 1/2 Live AKs vs Massive Overbet on Nut Flush Draw Flop

Getting 3-2 on your money. Need to be correct 40% of the time to break even. The flush draw alone is about 33%, and about 4% of the time you will hit runner runner for a straight. V would pretty much need to have a set or two pair about 90% of the time for this to be a break even play. Easy call.

But I agree with the field, you should fold pre to the reraise to $100.
fightingillini is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:02 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive