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Old 05-15-2017, 05:59 PM   #1
hamhamt
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1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

Hi everyone, was playing 1/2 live yesterday and ran into a tough spot. stacks are 120 effective

I want to note that this table would full of a lot of fish limping in but there was one player who seemed to be running hot.

In this hand she is in mp and open raises 15 (7x bb). Typically players are opening for about 8 so this raise struck me as odd but I have noticed players at these stakes tend to play middle pockets in this way.

I am in the cutoff with KK. Since I am somewhat short stacked but I feel like I am ahead of her range I 2x raise her to 30.

It folds around and she calls

So pot now at this point is 60.

Flop comes 85Qr and she instant checks and looks away from the board. I then look at the board and consider a bet.

My thought process was if I bet and she calls I am basically pot committed because of the spr.

Because of this I decided to jam and maybe fold out some Ax hands and get value from AQ. Of course I lose to AA and QQ.

She ends up insta calling me and shows pocket qq, and I bust and left the table pretty sad.

What do you guys think of this hand? Is raising bad because of my SPR if called? Or given my line is jamming bad because of the chance that she had either pocket q or pocket a? I feel like the chances of her having those two cards are slim but I guess given that board texture it is more likely? I wanted to run this on FlopZilla but I haven't had the chance yet.

Cheers,
R
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:14 PM   #2
MIB211
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

I think you're thinking about this hand wrong. You're completely committed in this spot, so your goal should not bet to fold out Ax, it should be to get the max value from her range. I'd bet 30. Hopefully she call with Qx and pocket pairs between Q and 8. Shove all turns.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:24 PM   #3
Axel Foley
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

To answer your questions:

1. Raising the open (or 3betting) with KK is the correct play. If anything, I might size the 3b a tad bigger. I usually go 3x for 3bets in position and 3.5x to 4x for 3bets from the blinds. Since she's already going pretty big herself I probably wouldn't feel the need to go all the way to 45, but 35 to 40 feels a little better. We have a hand that should want a smaller SPR.

2. As played, you get to the pot with 60 in and 90 behind effective. You say you decide to jam to "fold out some Ax hands and get value from AQ." Previously, you had said that her raise size made you think that for your given player pool she could have "middle pockets." If villain raises and calls with a hands like 99 or TT, how do you think she will respond to a jam from you on a Q85r flop? If she gets to the flop and folds these hands, then a jam isn't a great play. It's getting called by hands that beat you, folding out hands you beat, and the Ax you fold out for "protection" like AJ only had about a 7% chance of improving to a pair of aces by the turn. Because of these things, I prefer to make a small c-bet ($35, even $30 is ok) on this flop and jam the turn.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:32 PM   #4
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

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Originally Posted by Axel Foley View Post
To answer your questions:

1. Raising the open (or 3betting) with KK is the correct play. If anything, I might size the 3b a tad bigger. I usually go 3x for 3bets in position and 3.5x to 4x for 3bets from the blinds. Since she's already going pretty big herself I probably wouldn't feel the need to go all the way to 45, but 35 to 40 feels a little better. We have a hand that should want a smaller SPR.

2. As played, you get to the pot with 60 in and 90 behind effective. You say you decide to jam to "fold out some Ax hands and get value from AQ." Previously, you had said that her raise size made you think that for your given player pool she could have "middle pockets." If villain raises and calls with a hands like 99 or TT, how do you think she will respond to a jam from you on a Q85r flop? If she gets to the flop and folds these hands, then a jam isn't a great play. It's getting called by hands that beat you, folding out hands you beat, and the Ax you fold out for "protection" like AJ only had about a 7% chance of improving to a pair of aces by the turn. Because of these things, I prefer to make a small c-bet ($35, even $30 is ok) on this flop and jam the turn.
Hey I really appreciate your analysis. On the second point, if I am betting a smaller amount on the flop is that just to keep ranges wide and get value from the under pairs? Because if I jam all turns I'm still going to be committed on the turn and I guess that was why I decided to jam on the flop.

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Old 05-15-2017, 06:33 PM   #5
Axel Foley
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

As far as knowing whether your bet is correct or value cutting yourself, in general you want to ask the following questions:

a) How many hands will this opponent call with that are worse than my hand? How many combos of those exist?

b) How many hands will this opponent call with that are better than my hand? How many combos of those exist?

If you have more combos in Category A than Category B, then your play will work out for you in the long run. Again, I think better sizing would help you to expand Category A so that it is massively larger than Category B, but even with a flop jam I think A will be bigger than B since there are 18 possible AQ/JJ combos and 12 combos of AA/QQ/88.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:39 PM   #6
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

I guess another question I have too is there any chance I am folding on these flops given the action? Because I couple of months ago I played a similar hand the same way and lost to a set of pocket Jacks.

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Old 05-15-2017, 06:44 PM   #7
Axel Foley
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

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Originally Posted by hamhamt View Post
Hey I really appreciate your analysis. On the second point, if I am betting a smaller amount on the flop is that just to keep ranges wide and get value from the under pairs? Because if I jam all turns I'm still going to be committed on the turn and I guess that was why I decided to jam on the flop.

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There are some other things to consider as well. One is that you want a bet sizing that will perform well for a variety of instances when you get to the flop as the 3bet aggressor in position, not just the instance when you have the overpair. If we had made a light 3bet and wanted to take one stab to represent an overpair, a small bet size allows us to use the leverage of the stack behind to move villain off ace high and possibly a hand like 77 for $35 rather than $90. If people in your player pool see you overshove with an overpair and then bet much smaller in other instances, they might deduce that those latter hands are semi-bluffs or complete misses.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:49 PM   #8
Axel Foley
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

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Originally Posted by hamhamt View Post
I guess another question I have too is there any chance I am folding on these flops given the action? Because I couple of months ago I played a similar hand the same way and lost to a set of pocket Jacks.

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To clarify, do you mean folding your actual hand of KK?

I wouldn't advise that. If villain had decided to donk lead there is no way we have enough information to know that she has QQ/AA rather than a hand like AQ/JJ. I have seen plenty of 3bet pots where the initial raiser has AK doesn't realize that a check raise on KJ3 is a bluff against the player with AA rather than a "protection play" against AQ/AT.

If you had played with her a while and observed that her donking range for value is strictly two pair plus and that she doesn't attempt to bluff, then yeah, in that case you could fold an overpair and feel fine about it. But without that information you'll be folding the best hand too often.
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Old 05-15-2017, 07:12 PM   #9
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Re: 1/2 live: 3bet pot kk vs qq. cooler or could have played differently?

OK very helpful thanks a lot.

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