Parx $1/$2NL 300max 9-handed

In general a great table with multiple very weak players, loose but more aggressive than your average $1/$2.

Villain ($450) : V & his friend are both at the table and both pretty big spots in the game. V is a very weak player and is playing somewhat erratic and gets overly excited (i.e. jumps up and claps or whatever) whenever he wins a decent size pot. Clearly not thinking in depth. Has shown a few bluffs - about 50% of which he over bet in small pots (i.e. $35 into $15) when checked to. He is in the for two $120 bullets.

Hero ($307) opening quite a bit and cbetting a lot (probably too much) earlier on and now have tightened up a little due to a good reg being sat to my left.

Preflop Fold to Hero in CO who opens to $12 with 3 4
3 Callers, including the V in CO

Flop ($45): A Q 2
V leads $10, Hero Raises to $50, Fold to V who Call $40 more...

Turn ($144) A
V checks, Hero Bets $65, V calls

River ($274) 9
V leads $20, Hero...

Bet turn bigger as he's never folding Ax. As playing I'm shoving because he doesn't have any boats in his range and I don't think he's capable of folding any Ax. He would also bet river bigger for value with a flush hoping we have Ax.

Yeah my in game thought on turn vs this player was that he can have a ton of flushes on the turn and wanted to leave myself an opportunity fold vs c/r jam... and I figured I should be able to get it in vs Ax & this player on most rivers.

I agree with him not having a flush here... I think he leads turn or raises turn almost always.

On river, his bet looks like a blocker bet with Ax

First off, you say you're in CO and villain is as well. But I take it from how the hand plays out that villian was either in the SB or BB instead. No biggie.

Lack of reraises and oddly small bet on river removes any doubt I'd have about V holding a set of 2s or larger flush. I agree with Jmrode67 - this is almost assuredly an ace and what you do on river depends on whether you think he's apt to call. Since he was willing to call $60 on the turn and the board isn't any sort of a scare card I'd go with a raise to no less than $75, and perhaps as high as $100 or perhaps even $125.

I would bet about 1/3 of what he has left on the turn so he doesn't make a pot commitment shove with Ax and we level ourselves into folding the best hand thinking he's not shoving with worse. So like $85 on the turn.

Yeah, agree with this the more I think about it ... If he shoves it's gross bc a bad player such a V can have AJ and think it's the nuts.

River Results:

From my experience, this flop bet/call looks a lot like a flush draw trying to give themselves a cheap price to a turn, or a weak ace trying to see where they are at.

Just because he doesn't bet or raise the turn doesn't change anything. Since the board paired he might think putting in a bet or raise would be overplaying his flush if he put you on an Ace, twopair, or a set.

The river looks like a blocking bet for the same reason, with a small Ace or a flush.

And of course there's the rare wierdly played monster or weaker hand.

But below are some ranges to give you an idea of how often he'd have each hand on each street.

Given this, trips appear most likely, but I don't think many people would call a large raise on this river with trips. Especially since so many of his trips have weak kickers. And since he's unlikely to 3bet with a flush since he's scared of a full house, I'd make a smallish raise to like 50 or 60 and fold to a shove. I think that's the best play. You get looked up by most of his trips. Since almost 30% of his range beats you, you need to get called by about half of his range that you beat for a raise to be correct.

To me V sounds like the type that won't fold Ax here to a shove even though he only beats a bluff but it's hard to translate that kind of a read on an online forum. I think he's calling $80 more with trips for sure though so $100 would be a safe bet to make sure he calls.

no one likes nittin it up and calling since we lose to all flushes and full houses, and we have shown so much strength in the hand that Ax is not calling a big raise?

I agree his line on flop looks very heavily like a flush draw or Ax

Regarding the turn, I would agree vs a thinking player but not this player type... It think he is going to lead flushes a ton and check raise flushes nearly the rest of the time. And his river lead of $20 just solidifies the unlikeliness he has a flush. It could be just my understanding of game flow and this player, but I just did not feel he ever has a flush by river.

I agree his range should be heavily weighted on river to Ax ... But this kids a fish and is not think of relative hand strength he is looking at absolute and he has trip A's ... I don't think he finds a fold often enough to not warrant a larger bet size.

So apparently the consensus seems to be that against this particular player, he is calling a relatively large river raise with a bare Ace. Against better/tighter/thinking players a smaller raise is better?

Against a thinking player I'm just trying to get to showdown as I don't think he'll pay off with much worse except maybe AK. But a thinking player wouldn't play the hand like this or bet 1/13 pot on the river either.