Pre-flop:
This is probably a fold to a raise (complete if limped), but calling is likely only marginally -EV if the pot is multiway enough. The problem with playing very multiway pots with JTs is we can get coolered by better flushes when we get there. It's almost like we are just playing this for nut-straight value and the fact that they are suited doesn't matter. I mean, it does, but JTo runs a lot closer to JTs than A3o does to A3s. And I'm guessing the OP is folding JTo, but maybe not.
Flop:
Never ever leading here. Of all the possible flops – the millions or billions of flops that can appear–, this might be the #1 flop least likely to be checked through multiway. If it gets checked through, then that means pretty much everyone has underpairs -- and in that case we want them to hit a set on the turn. But really, someone has a decent piece of it almost every time.
Furthermore, our perfect relative position (with all those players acting after the raiser but before us) makes leading terrible.
Let's say the villain has KK, and we check. He bets the flop, and a player behind him calls with KJ or whatever, then we check raise. Now we are playing for the villain's stack and got the free money from the caller. Now let's say instead that we lead for $30. Due to having 3 players left behind, our villain is forced to give his hand away. If he has KK he probably raises us and the villain behind him folds. If he has 99 he folds. Another reason to check is that the villain may cbet-spew with 99 and have callers with pairs + gutshots behind. No way he can just call us with a set or two pair here, unless he puts us on our hand and goes fullhouse mining, which is also terrible for us. What if we lead, get 2 callers, and a heart or A/K/Q falls on the turn? Check/fold right?
So yeah, leading gets us way less money than check/raising here, mainly because this flop isn't getting checked through. We really want to build the pot with the nuts now and protect our hand from flushes/full houses, so....check.
While I like the check-raise, I do not like the amount. First of all, we are $500 deep here, so it's okay to make our check raise bigger to make it easier to get stacks in. Second, our hand is actually really vulnerable here – any heart, ace, king, queen, jack, or ten may kill it or our action. That's, like, a lot of cards. But most importantly, our 2.5x check-raise is terrifyingly small. I think we pretty much turned our hand face up there. Let's make it $100. $100 looks bluffy to some players and more like the flush draw. This villain sounds like a hand reader, and he saw you bluff earlier.
Turn, good cards:
If he calls the check raise, I'm tank-betting $80 on the turn (assuming no
/A/K/Q/J/T). This 100% turns our hand face-up to thinking villains as a flush draw setting the price, and if he has a set or two pair, he will almost definitely raise us. I've had the chance to try this move against good, aggressive players three times, and I've gotten the raise I wanted with a 100% success rate – but only counting the first time.
We can just lead the turn for $150 if we want to play it more straightforward. But the fake blocker-bet really works, at least in my small sample.
Anyways, if we get the big raise we want on the turn, we may as well shove after a few seconds. Make the timing like a "**** it, I'm mentally committed and winning this pot" without actually doing anything stupid like sighing or shrugging or **** like that. He will either call because he's emotionally invested, or he will correctly fold, and we get to blow him off his full house equity in a gargantuan pot.
Turn, bad cards:
If a heart or J/T comes in on the turn, we bet whatever amount we think he will call. It'll be really hard to get value here, we are far more likely to have the flush than he is and we both know this. A $150 turn/$75 river line will protect our equity and be small enough relative to the pot to induce some crying calls.
If an A/K/Q comes, we can check/fold and feel fine about it. If he turns counterfeit AQ into a bluff on a K turn (pretty ballsy), good for him. There is absolutely no way we can call him down this deep, out of position, on a board where his range demolishes ours and demolishes our actual holding.
Last edited by dunderstron!; 03-10-2015 at 02:14 AM.