I played the following spot in Oregon at the local rake free card rooms in a $1-$2 NLHE game. I appreciate your insight feedback on this hand.
Hero is UTG ($400 - becomes effective stack) with KcQc, Hero raises to $9, UTG+2 ($900) calls, Lojack ($300) calls, BU ($800 - primary villain) calls, BB ($300) calls, 5 handed to flop, Pot: $45
Thoughts: This was a relatively loose game and people are not afraid to 3bet strong hands. Because we get called in 4 spots and there is no 3bet, I think my hand is doing well against opponent's ranges.
Flop: Kd, 8h, 7c - We flop top pair Q kicker and the BDFD.
Hero bets $28 into $45 pot, UTG+2 folds, Lojack folds, BU calls, BB folds. Hu to the turn, Pot: $102.
Thoughts BU is a younger kid who I had seen playing in other sessions. He is aggressive and overall seems like a decent/good player. He has not made too many glaring mistakes and shown the ability to lay down AJo on J97 to a raise against a tight player. There are not many draws on this flop other than T9s or 56s. BU may have also called with some of the gutters such as JT or J9. This is a relatively safe flop because there are few, if any, two pair combos. The game plays loose and people generally call to wide so hands like K8s and K7s are possible. So are two combos of sets, 88 and 77. I think BU would likely raise 87s, so I weight that combo less given that he just called. I have a decent but not nutted hand.
Turn: 9c, Hero checks, BU bets $55, Hero calls. Hu to river, Pot: $212
Thoughts This is where the hand gets interesting and I am most curious to get feedback. The reason I check is because the turn brings in my BDFD and makes some of BU's straights (56s and JT got there). The reason I am inclined to check such a turn card is because now I have more incentive to get to the river and draw to the flush. If I bet the turn and BU raises, I think I have to fold because I do not have enough equity even with the BDFD to call a raise. Because we are 200 bbs to start the hand which is relatively deep, I think I have more incentive to try and find spots where it is nutted hand over nutted hand because we can play for a huge pot. Here, if I make the back door flush and BU has a straight, I think he almost always (1) has to bet the river; and (2) call off to a river x/r. Because of this, it makes folding the turn to a raise more of a disaster because we will miss out on what could be a huge implied odds spot. Do you agree? FWIW, if this turn had been a non-club or a club that doesn't bring in some of BU's straights, I would almost always look to bet around 50% pot, fold to a raise on the turn and check/decide on rivers that do not improve our hand. Any thoughts on that approach as a general line in this spot?
The problem I am having is that if we bet and get raised, fine, or hand is beat and we fold and move on. However, checking the turn under represents the strength of my hand to an extent. Now, if BU has any of the KT/KJ/KQ combos (which are fewer since we are blocking), he may very well think his hand is good. My thought is that if you take lines that under rep your hand, you have to be more willing to go to showdown because you may induce mistaken value from your opponent. I may be leveling myself here, but once we check/call the turn with this hand, I am not looking to fold many rivers. Another thought is that should we be considering the fact that this hand started as a 5 way pot which means BU is not as much going to be induced to thinking KT/KJ is good because I lead flop into 4 opponents so he can safely just give me a King?
River: 9s, Hero checks, BU bets $100. Hero has to call $100 to win a $412 pot giving us 3:1 pot odds meaning we need 25% equity against BU's range. Hero calls.
Thoughts It is not a great river but not necessarily a horrible river. It is bad because if BU had T9 for the OESD on the flop, he has now improved to hand that beats us. However, I do feel like straight draws that called on the flop and paired the turn (T9 and J9) are not as likely because I am not sure if BU would bet these hands on the turn rather than just check it back and realize equity after I lead out into a field of 5 on the flop. The river is good because we now beat the flopped two pair combos (K8s and K7s). However, K8s and K7s now seem unlikely because BU would have to be doing some sort of last minute spazz bluff hail mary thing to be betting $100 on the river.
I ultimately call because of the fear that my turn check has induced BU into believing that his KT/KJ combos are good. Maybe it is too optimistic to believe that NLHE players are that bad these days to the extent they are going to keep firing top pair marginal kicker. I put this hand into the equity calculator and I have the right odds to call if and only if BU has those KT/KJ combos in his range. I am questioning my thought process because maybe when I check/call the turn, this puts BU on high alert and he is not betting again on the river with only KT/KJ. After slowing down on the turn and checking it over to BU, is it possible to then check/fold this river? By calling, am I overestimating the power of under repping my hand in this spot?
Thank you for taking the time and reading this post, your comments are appreciated.
Last edited by Garick; 03-11-2019 at 09:28 AM.
Reason: removed results