I'm listening...

This game has no max. I think villain was playing 2-5 then brought her stack to this table when that game broke (because she was speaking with one of the regs). In my view the large stack is no indication of ability. She could be independently wealthy and perhaps she likes having a similar amount on the table as others.

How long have been at the table?
How much did we / can we buy in for?
How do we not have any other information about how this lady plays than she might have poor bet sizing? She has 800bb at a 1/2 game. These things just don't happen randomly.

As played the river lead is fine, esp since we can expect her not to raise with worse given HH in the OP. But the flop and the turn are really questionable without more reads / better history which we need here desperately in order to make the right choice.

You know what I hate, $1/$2 no max buy-in. This game looks less like a $1/$2 and more like a $2/$5 how often is this game straddled?

I really hate our limited information on V, makes hand so awkward and I lean on side of caution vs old ladies until shown otherwise.

What's the structure like at your $2/$5 also no max?

Are you saying calling the flop raise is questionable? I can get behind folding the flop to V if we have the right range.

OOP. RIO.

ehhh, depends too much on table to fold 22 pre-flop imo. If you have a tighter post-flop table, I like the fold.



I do hate 22-44 in SB-BB in big multi-way pots though. I understand the logic. I think it has a lot of merit the more deeper the table is for sure, even more so, the deeper and tighter post-flop.

No it doesnt. She has literally 3 combos of 55, that we lose max too. That she might not 3! Turn with. 88! And JJ we can assume she will raise!!!! If she raise and we fold. We lose same amount as if we called 2 streets.

She literally needs to have overplayed AA, or have 8-5s in her range. Either or, not both. Not have 16 combos of 8-5.

So in reality. She has likely made a mistake more times with overpairs, than she has combos that are going gain value from our raise.

She has 9 combos that beat us!!!

Call turn, call river we lose $300ish when behind.

Raise turn we lose $700 vs 55 only. Lose $300 vs JJ and 88. We are not opening ourselves up to be bluffed

Call $120 on turn, we lose value against majority of her range. On turn and river!!!







Congrats,

You just won minimum, 85% of time. Saved some money vs 55

She is likely checking back river with all 2 pair hands. Betting all her sets.

She played hand perfectly to lose min.





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This is why most players are bad at playing deep. Because they won't stick their kneck out to get value, when it is needed.

Sitting around making nutz, is not how you beat deep stack poker.

It is getting guys to lose value vs your range. When your gaining value vs theirs.

Raise on turn, is not over valuing your hand. It can quite possibly save you from losing max vs 88, JJ

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If I c/c turn I lead river. This woman is not raising river and we dont give her that option to check back.

I also don't think this woman is raising 88 over your turn c/r I think she might only raise with JJ.


Also your idea still bases entirely on 85o and overpairs. If she has no overpairs and no 85o, imagine how bad your c/r is now. You're talking about a pretty thin spot no reads and just acting on stereotypes, a simple read can swing this from a positive play to a very bad play and you're just fist pumping it's a good play.

We've only been at the table about an hour after being moved here. There is no max.

are you guys nuts or what. trying to put her on ranges, and thinking she even considers inducing bets or value. she is just sitting there playing poker and will go broke anytime she has a good hand in her mind.

i am playing this hand strongly trying to figure out how to get her all in. or the most i can from the pot.

Some food for thought:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

38,610 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 5 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
2h 2s	77.09%	29,764	0
88, 55, 99, TT, A8, 85	22.91%	8,846	0

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

26,730 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 5 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
2h 2s	68.97%	18,435	0
88, 55, 85, 99, TT	31.03%	8,295	0

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

14,850 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 5 2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
2h 2s	53.19%	7,899	0
88, 55, 85	46.81%	6,951	0

Thing is, how are you ever up against A8.

You're rarely against 99/TT once the turn action unfolds.

And in your last trial you include all 85 hands. You also included no JJ.

If you included 99/TT how is no JJ ever here?

Very well played imo


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85s, 82s, 52s, A8 (heavely discounted),

Possible 2 overs and flush draw.

But I digress. Having a game plan where old lady, wouldn't make any mistakes in hand but then not raise nuts on river or turn. Is ludicrous.

Leading river only makes up a little for your passive play on turn. As she still has hands your afraid of, and your still putting money in pot.

Your line saves you little $ on occasion, but loses you $ majority of time.

Betting river for value, but stone cold against raising turn for value?
(I know, I know keep ranges wide!!!!) (But not at cost of value)

Won't get me on board with that.

1/2 is simple game. Many strategies beat it.

But if she is only raising better on flop. Isn't flop a fold? She made it 6x?

But losing value with your value hands is sure fire way to keep your WR/loss rate in check.

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I'm actually fine with folding flop if we can narrow her range down. But in general, you should be calling because those overpairs like 99/TT do raise here. But once they get called and any over card comes, they tend to tighten up. Which is why I think you should definitely be calling flop raise. And the turn will start to tell the tale more truthfully.

I guess given no significant reads, it's a guessing game and folding flop and playing hand with c/r is fine. But, you really, really, want her to have QQ/KK/AA here.

If her range is 85, JJ, 88, 55, is it not a fold on turn. But a call on flop? If she continues her TT/99 on turn, it's obviously fine to c/r.

If we add in any overpairs, it's super easy fist pump raise.

No, folding is not correct. Have enough reads she is awful in OP.





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Yeah, I'm not folding flop.

Turn I think is more marginal with no definitive reads. If you range her correctly, you can then figure out what to do.


Another question:

Does our image play any role vs someone who you consider awful? Someone who folded KKKQQ board for small pot. I would generally think image is almost entirely irrelevant here besides maybe a maniacal image.

I'm rarely folding to the flop raise here save vs a super nit.

I actually think that sometimes we can 3bet the flop if we have better reads on a player.

But again, either of these two options can be completely correct or dead wrong depending on better reads.
Which we don't have, so debating them is sort of pointless imo.

Great post. Agree w top issue of advice in forums is how nitty-ABC it often is.


--onto the hand:

I really liked OPs general line. Check-raise turn + bomb river is a good way to get chips in. FWIW, I'd say like 500 otr--but any healthy river bet here is good.

I think her range on the turn is all 2 pairs, not sure if she has offsuit as well as suited in there (58s/J8s is likely in her range--fish like flops). And qq-aa. I think 99/TT had a higher checkback percentage as the new Over card should scare her. Probable a rando J w flush draw is in the mix. Obvi 3 sets are in there as well (if she has 33, lol and shake her hand!)


Also: this game sounds absolutely amazing.

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Too nitty. No way am I going to pass on the opportunity to hit a set with the chance of getting as much as a 1000 percent return on investment.

Hero should have been able to find a fold here against this V on the flop. She's probably the only player at the table I don't want to be getting heavy action from with my hand and she is putting in big bets, so time to fold. This is never 2 pair, its always a set, and probably 75% of the time its top set.

In game this deep, if your folding 22 here for $3, you should pack up and find a 100BB game somewhere

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Based on the (admittedly small) amount of information that we have in the OP, v never has TT/99 here or J8 or anything that isn't (maybe) AA/KK, and 85, 88, 55, maybe 52s, 82s.

No way we get raised on the flop with J8 here.

You're overthinking the V.
ZOMG top pair! Do you know how hard that is to make!


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