1/2 live NL in South FL. Hero is running hot, turning 300 into 1000 in less than an hour thanks to flopping sets and straights. Maybe three other players have >300, the rest are shorties.

I'm on BTN w/ JsJd. Three limpers to me and I make it 17 to go, higher than my usual pre raises of 12-15. My only limp-callers are a short-stack male (started hand w/ less than 100) and an older female nit w/ ~400.

Flop seems safe, 852 w/ two clubs.

Immediately I notice the lady check her cards, which according to Mike Caro means she has at least one club.

Short-stack male bets 20 with 35 behind. Lady calls. I don't take long to make it 80 to go with the idea of pricing in both players - the short stack for 35 more and the lady, who even as a nit can't help but call another 60 based on how much is in the pot. I also wouldn't hate isoing the short stack and getting the lady out of there. He calls (yay), she calls (hmm).

Turn is a red 7. Seems safe. Lady checks.

If I check I give her a free shot at a possible flush. She has to have SOMETHING because she's not floating for 80.

If I bet, it has to be sizable and she could very check-raise me all in. I don't think I'd be very happy calling HER check-raise with just JJ.

What would your move be?

This is a very interesting spot. I would personally just jam ~$200 effective. I don't like having her in the hand put she could have a hand like 99 or TT, in addition to clubs. Would she ever just flat QQ+ pre? Would she ever not raise flop with a set?

Nitty old lady? I'm happy to fold to a check raise on the turn with JJ. She's never bluffing this. Bet 125 and see if she chases.

Bet/fold turn, build the pot and charge her A8s, A5s and Axcc. Nits don’t check/jam turns with unmade hands very often, and certainly won’t do it with a semi dry side pot and an opponent who raised a donk bet on the flop. You look very strong here.

So the day after the hand I spent time thinking about this hand. How many bad river cards are out there?? We know any club is bad news. If she's checking her hole cards on the flop then there's probably a good chance she's checking to see if her A is a club, so any A is bad. Any K or Q could be bad. That's a lot of outs she has. A BIG turn bet is necessary.

So for some dumb reason I checked and the river blank went check-check. She had A3cc, so any club, A or 4 makes her a winner. She said she wasn't going to call another big bet on the turn, but I don't believe that.

Any suggestions on how to think correctly in the moment and not 12-24 hours later on a message board?

IP against nits, your "in the moment" strategy should be to bet again unless you have a very good reason not to. The next time I see a 1/2 nit check-raise bluff me off a better hand on the turn or river will be the very first.

And if they call your turn bet then jam the river, that tells you they hit whatever stupid draw they were chasing and you can almost always fold. Otherwise you can get a third street of value when you improve and check back otherwise (which will be most of the time, but that's perfectly fine - against nits you can't expect to get called 3x unless they have something that beats TP).

It's an exploitable strategy, sure, but the average 1/2 nit is the last person in the world who's going to exploit it. Milk that value.

Bet/fold is fine. If she's really an old lady nit, she shouldn't have much here that beats JJ unless she's going to call you down w/ QQ, KK, AA.

If she calls the turn, you can check behind most rivers. She won't pay you off, but she'll call w/ better.

Assuming your read of her as a nit is right, I can't really see her check/raising here. I'd bet out here, and if she shocks me by raising, then you can get away from it.