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[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action [1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action

10-16-2018 , 02:29 PM
Table pretty nice, H making it very talkative and happy.

Korean guy [50] - EP (late 40s, speaks only Korean, went allin (overbet) with nutted hands twice postflop, saw him called an overbet on the turn with open ended (56 with 43 on board), pretty random imo...)
Hero [Covers] - HJ (LAG image, but I had had good hands in last orbits so opened a lot)
Woman [210] - BTN (50yo woman, not aggressive, calls a lot preflop and on flop)
Reg [130] - SB (20s guy, selective preflop, can fold post vs big bets, normal ABC player I guess)

Preflop:
Korean limps, Hero opens to 10 with KT, Woman calls, SB calls, Korean calls

Flop (40) J3J
SB checks, Korean donk shoves 36, Hero calls, Button calls, SB allin over for 120 total. Back to Hero, 80 more to call and Button (the woman) still looks interested in the hand (she has 160 left), H ?

Not too worried about the Korean guy, he can have any pair, a J a 3, a flush draw or wtv...
Woman can have QQ+ (never seen her 3b, saw some limped or raised pot where she had big pairs (AA)), some Jacks or flush draw
ABC reg has most likely a J (QJs, KJs, AJs) or 33, but maybe he doesnt shove 33 here... I dont think he has a FD neither

Anyway, do you play hand differently?
AP, do you shove, call or fold with the woman still to act after?
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-16-2018 , 03:15 PM
Pot is $184, and you need to call $84. As played I guess you can shove (because we're never folding if the woman ships it after we call the $120), but this hand is a trainwreck.

I'm never calling the $36 on a paired board, should have been an easy fold.

Going forward be more aware of stack sizes left to act before making loose calls OTF. We've all been there, but this is how winning sessions turn into losing ones.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-17-2018 , 08:29 AM
I'd let it go as played. Not drawing to NF and hitting TP may be blocked given the opponent ranges.

Given the number of short stacks and the passive 105 bbs stack, I think limping this hand is better to keep implied odds high. Raising pre gives less room to maneuver post.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-17-2018 , 03:21 PM
Fold to 36 and fold to shove
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-17-2018 , 10:07 PM
There's a high probability that someone has a jack, and we don't have great equity in that case (probably close to the 25% pot odds we're getting on the flop bet). Coupled with the fact we aren't drawing to the nut flush, I'd say this is a fold.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 12:08 AM
I think calling the flop is ok (marginal but ok) given villain description and easy fold now given the action
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 03:09 AM
You guys are sick for wanting to fold for the 36.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 03:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
You guys are sick for wanting to fold for the 36.
We have K high with two guys behind us (another stack sized perfectly to raise AI) who can squeeze us out. If we get a tell one or both look disinterested we should call but as is...meh.

I don't think a call is that bad I just think it's really marginal either way and likely to inject some unnecessary variance.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
We have K high with two guys behind us (another stack sized perfectly to raise AI) who can squeeze us out. If we get a tell one or both look disinterested we should call but as is...meh.

I don't think a call is that bad I just think it's really marginal either way and likely to inject some unnecessary variance.
Calling the $36 on this board, with our opponents stack sizes is a pretty big leak. I do not see how this is even debatable.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 09:43 AM
I think calling the 36 is okay. It's not a great situation because we have two players behind. Often times the shortstack is showing up with a smaller flush draw which we absolutely crush, and sometimes he has a jack which we have 30% equity against. We're getting 33% odds on that call. I expect to see players behind us fold the majority of the time.

Once we are raised, it is nearly a certainty that someone has a jack and we're in bad shape. If we knew that we had the best flush draw, it would be correct to call (because we have 30% equity against a jack, and we're getting 25% pot odds on the call). But there's also a decent chance that one of the other 4 players has the NFD, in which case we are actually drawing dead. I think we have to fold at this point.

Last edited by aisrael01; 10-18-2018 at 09:53 AM.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
I think calling the flop is ok (marginal but ok) given villain description and easy fold now given the action
+1
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 11:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunkamunk
Calling the $36 on this board, with our opponents stack sizes is a pretty big leak. I do not see how this is even debatable.
It's pretty easy to see that the first flop call is correct. Just looks at the preflop ranges for standard 1/2 players and count the proportion of combos of Ax. If the standard player plays 20% of hands, so ~250 combos they can have at most 9 combos of Ax, so 9/250=4% of their range dominates our hand. Given there are two players behind us, there's double the chance, so 8% of the time we're dominated by someone behind. 90+% of the time we're in awesome shape and this is a slam dunk call.

Once 4 players show interest in the hand, their collective ranges shrink a lot. It becomes way more likely that someone holds one of those 9 combos of Ax. Which is why we have to fold to the 3bet.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 01:08 PM
Wanting to fold to some rando's 36 donkbet all-in would be extremely results oriented if you ask me.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
It's pretty easy to see that the first flop call is correct. Just looks at the preflop ranges for standard 1/2 players and count the proportion of combos of Ax. If the standard player plays 20% of hands, so ~250 combos they can have at most 9 combos of Ax, so 9/250=4% of their range dominates our hand. Given there are two players behind us, there's double the chance, so 8% of the time we're dominated by someone behind. 90+% of the time we're in awesome shape and this is a slam dunk call.

Once 4 players show interest in the hand, their collective ranges shrink a lot. It becomes way more likely that someone holds one of those 9 combos of Ax. Which is why we have to fold to the 3bet.
How are we in awesome shape against Jx which is his most likely holding? I think we should fold to the 36, HU we can call, but having 2 players behind us swings it for me. As played easy fold when it comes back to us.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown
Wanting to fold to some rando's 36 donkbet all-in would be extremely results oriented if you ask me.
I re-read the hand and still think it's a fold, but its not as black and white as I was previously saying.

The paired board, how little we have invested, and the fact that we don't even have the NFD are the deciding factors in me leaning towards the fold.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjm
How are we in awesome shape against Jx which is his most likely holding? I think we should fold to the 36, HU we can call, but having 2 players behind us swings it for me. As played easy fold when it comes back to us.
If we knew his exact holding was Jx, we would almost have the right price to call. Our equity vs Jx is around 30% and we are being laid pot odds of 33% -- so, it's a fold, but very close.

However the shortstack has a ton of other hands which we absolutely crush -- suited connectors, suited 1-gappers, and suited broadways are in his range.

Then there are the hands which crush us, namely the Ax combos. But there are fewer of those than all the other spade combos.

The above is a quick mental check that we should be good here. To verify exactly, you have to use an equity calculator. If you input the above range for the shortstack, you find our equity is 40%.

So yes, if this were HU then it is a slam dunk call.

For the two players behind, there is less than 6% chance that either of them holds the NFD (I made an error in my calculations from the previous post, there are 8 combos of Ax out of 250 preflop combos, so ~3% per player, 6% overall).

So 94% of the time we are getting it in with a 40%/33% equity/pot-odds edge, and 6% of the time we are in very bad shape and we lose our $36 investment. So the raw EV of the first flop call is
EV = -0.06 * 36 + 0.94*(0.4*(40+36+36) - 36) = -0.06*36 + 0.94*8.8 = - 2.1 + 8.2 = +6.1 dollars.

An EV of $6.1 is pretty good for an investment of only $36 -- the ROI on that is like 17% !

FWIW the above calculation makes the simplifying assumption that the Villains behind us will never bluff us off our hand. I'm assuming straightforward play on the part of all players.

You can tinker with the numbers a little and it is still +EV to call. Even if you assume we are forced to fold 16% of the time due to aggressive action from players behind -- so we only realize our equity against the shortstack 84% of the time, the EV is still positive. Just replace 0.06 and 0.94 in the formula by 0.16 and 0.84 and you'll find the EV is $1.6.

Last edited by aisrael01; 10-18-2018 at 03:24 PM.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
If we knew his exact holding was Jx, we would almost have the right price to call. Our equity vs Jx is around 30% and we are being laid pot odds of 33% -- so, it's a fold, but very close.

However the shortstack has a ton of other hands which we absolutely crush -- suited connectors, suited 1-gappers, and suited broadways are in his range.

Then there are the hands which crush us, namely the Ax combos. But there are fewer of those than all the other spade combos.

The above is a quick mental check that we should be good here. To verify exactly, you have to use an equity calculator. If you input the above range for the shortstack, you find our equity is 40%.

So yes, if this were HU then it is a slam dunk call.

For the two players behind, there is less than 6% chance that either of them holds the NFD (I made an error in my calculations from the previous post, there are 8 combos of Ax out of 250 preflop combos, so ~3% per player, 6% overall).

So 94% of the time we are getting it in with a 40%/33% equity/pot-odds edge, and 6% of the time we are in very bad shape and we lose our $36 investment. So the raw EV of the first flop call is
EV = -0.06 * 36 + 0.94*(0.4*(40+36+36) - 36) = -0.06*36 + 0.94*8.8 = - 2.1 + 8.2 = +6.1 dollars.

An EV of $6.1 is pretty good for an investment of only $36 -- the ROI on that is like 17% !

FWIW the above calculation makes the simplifying assumption that the Villains behind us will never bluff us off our hand. I'm assuming straightforward play on the part of all players.

You can tinker with the numbers a little and it is still +EV to call. Even if you assume we are forced to fold 16% of the time due to aggressive action from players behind -- so we only realize our equity against the shortstack 84% of the time, the EV is still positive. Just replace 0.06 and 0.94 in the formula by 0.16 and 0.84 and you'll find the EV is $1.6.
I think you're been optimistic with your calculations.

Vs all Jx broadways and better, all Axss, all SC and one gapper FD's I have it as 37% equity. We need 32%.

Vs Just the Jx combos of that range we have 27% equity.

From villain description (shoved for value twice, called off with draw once) we prob want to discount him taking this line more with the FD than we do with Jx.

Of the flush draws I would want to discount him taking this line (limp-call utg pre, shove flop) with some of the One-gappers 42s etc, that we crush, more then the Axs which crush us.

I'm not sure where your forced to fold 16% number comes from, is it taking into account Jx behind us? But obv we need to consider Jx in the ranges behind us as well as NFD, since Jx is pretty much always shoving.

I don't mind a call HU but I think it's marginal, with players behind I think it becomes a fold.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote
10-18-2018 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjm
I'm not sure where your forced to fold 16% number comes from, is it taking into account Jx behind us? But obv we need to consider Jx in the ranges behind us as well as NFD, since Jx is pretty much always shoving.

I don't mind a call HU but I think it's marginal, with players behind I think it becomes a fold.
Yes, the 16% figure is intended to take into account any Jx among the players behind.

It is really complicated to range multiple villains in this hand. If we put the shortstack on a very tight range (largely consisting of the relevant Jx) then it becomes way less likely that any other Villains will have a Jack (there's probably only one left in the deck). If we give shortstack a broader range, including hands like 43s, 53s, A3o, then our equity goes way up, but it becomes more likely that a Villain behind will wake up with a Jack.

The OP said to include any Jack, flush draws, and also any 3s that show up in his preflop range. If he shows up with at least 20 combos of 3x here, that would really boost the 38% number.

To;Dr I need to run more numbers, and I don't really know how to estimate the percentage that a player behind will shove flop and force us to fold our equity.
[1-2] KTs - Flush draw on paired flop - multiway action Quote

      
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