Hero tight, villain tight. $225 Effective stacks. Have history together, we both respect each others game.
Hero otb KhQh villain Utg +2.
Villain raises 10 pre hero calls. Heads up.
Flop K 4 3 one heart
Villain leads $20 hero calls
Turn 10h
Villain leads all in $175... Hero tank calls
River Qc

Honestly if the turn wasn't a heart, I don't call. Possible I have best hand, but I respect this villain. The shove surprised me quite frankly

Never folding at cheese burger stakes with flush draw. Perhaps a fold if we didn't have the draw, but would like to hear other thoughts on this.

Can you tell us some about your history with villain?

Have played probably 15+ hours with him. Plays pretty solid. Mid 40s usually showsdown with good hands. He's seen me play alotta LAG style, although I've been tighter this session so far. He's seen me show bluffs and I've seen him have one or two bluffs.

Depends how often you have the best hand.

I generally think you have it rarely and you probably need to fold.

You need like 43% equity, and I doubt you have it.

Turning the flush draw it nice, but it's only worth around 18% equity with 1 card to come.

Your K and Q outs aren't always good - call them 3 total outs, or another ~6% equity.

That's 24% equity. Then you have to think how often you're good, and I just don't think you're good very often at all unless you have reason to believe he's spazing.

A better read would help. You just said he's "tight," and I'm taking that at face value.

Yeah I was just running the numbers on poker crunchers. I'll say he's more TAG then OMC/Nitty

OP, you say he's 40 years old and plays pretty solid?

Sounds like a fold to me. We haven't invested much into the pot...

What range of hands do you think he's making this bet with? $10/$20/$175 is a pretty weird line.

There's $60 in the pot, if he wanted to gii with his set/AA/AK, he could bet $50 here to set up a $125 river shove.

Have you seen him take this sort of line before?

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a hand like AJhh. He cbets the flop, gets called, then picks up a combo nut draw and decides to semibluff shove.

I'd be pretty surprised to see a set here. Aces and AK are both possible, but if he has those hands then he's playing them terribly, and in a manner that should've shown up in his betting pattern (it's an ohgodtheyregonnasuckoutonme protection bet). K10 is possibly in his range, but is he really raising with that from early position?

I find a call here. We have outs and the bet feels like a weird spazz.

Smells like a set/AK/AA that is massively afraid of draws?

I think the fact that we're uncomfortable postflop with this runout means that it's a fold pre against this guy.

That's what I'm thinking.

And if he's bluffing, good for him, he wins imo. We'll catch on and adjust better than anyone else and win all his chips later.

Nah - you never could have expected he would way overbet this turn.

Betting 175 into 60$ pot sounds more fishy than solid.

Sent from my XT1254 using 2+2 Forums

Agreed, I don't think a solid player is betting $175 into $60.
Seems like he has 34.

KK, not likely, 33 likely, 44 likely, TT (would he float flop bet with TT?)

So the real question is would he shove $175 into $60 with 33 or 44? I guess it depends how good you think it is. Assuming hes solid, I think he has 34.

I'd just fold pf. KQs against a solid raiser from EP is behind his range. If we're c/f flops to this guy a lot then I think we're losing money. If we know his betting patterns well enough to steal from him a lot after the flop, then I like calling with position a lot more.

He showed KK.