1/2, 9 handed, $350 effective. Hero probably has a looser end of TAG image. Hero has been folding to a lot of strength - i.e. folded both times on the flop when lead into on unfavorable flops and folded the only time he was x-r on flop on a more neutral board. I would classify villain as the loose end of TAG as well, and solid for a 1/2 player.
OTTH
Hero opens K♥️ Q♥️ $15 UTG, villain calls LJ, and fish calls BB.
Turn ($106): 5♣️. Hero bets $80, villain raises to $200 with $105 behind. Hero? Turn raises at 1/2 tend to be laughably nutted, but what can villain have? AA, KK, and AK 3 bet pre every time, I'm not sure about TT, and so there's potentially 3 combos of TT, for sure three combos of 66, and two combos of KTs for value. Bluffs I would assume he has three combos of QJs, and maybe A♦️ Q♦️, A♦️J♦️, 9♦️8♦️, 8♦️7♦️, 7♦️6♦️, I really don't know how wide he's calling pre, deep stacked. Also, wouldn't we expect a hand like KT or a set to raise flop?
Big draws always make their move on the flop so I would discount all of those. Weird spot. I guess we just have to put him on TT/66/AK, assume he just wanted a card to peel off and fold.
You know him better then I do but I sometimes call tight UTG players with AK pre.
Big draws always make their move on the flop so I would discount all of those.
+1 it just seems like a wierd turn to start bluffing a draw. Especially with so little behind. Like hes obviously not folding if you jam. If he wanted a fold i think he would have went all in. I think hes just going for thin value with a hand like AK. Possibly springing the trap with a flopped set? I think its a sigh fold. Youve got better hands to call off with.
Wow, with your image, this is tough. However, he bet enough to let you know that he's committed. I guess he could have Ad5d or some silly hand like that, but you are probably beat.
I would go for x/c ott vs bet. Our hand is strong but we also have AA,AK,KK,TT ,KTs,KJs,QJs. I would check this turn with KQ and KJ for pot control. Especially against a reggish type player. Hes going to bet his draws as a semibluff and could even bet a hand like QQ ( highly unlikely but a higher prob than him calling a second barrel) and we get extra value from his weaker range.
As played I fold faster than he can get his money out there. Were at the bottom of our value range (KJ is actual bottom) no reason to overplay it here
Well, if he showed you QdJd I reckon you have odds to call here. This is the tippy-top of his drawing range. So the real issue is: Could he play a set this way, or poker Gods forbid, AK?
I’m sort of concerned about the preflop dynamic here in this regard. H raises pre and V has some AKo/TT he’d flat in position. Like you, he’s probably not worried about the fish in the blinds.
Therefore, the problem is that we’ve got odds to call against all the draws - maybe 8-10 realistic combos. We’re in bad shape against 6d5d. He also has 6 sets we’re in bad shape against as well as 8 AKo that perhaps we can discount but not dismiss.
I suppose it’s a very close call because we’re behind 15 plausible combos and ahead of maybe 10 draws. We get 3-1 but we’re not loving it because the V’s draws have outs when we’re ahead but when we’re behind we’re drawing very thin. I think it’s almost a coin flip.
