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Old 12-28-2015, 11:41 PM   #1
Joey913
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1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

Hero ($400): 30ish white guy, winning TAG image

Villian ($225): 65ish reg, fairly loose preflop but seems to tighten up when serious money goes in. Hero did catch him bluffing $10 into a $35 pot on a 5679Q (no flush) board with 26 from SB and Hero called w/ 79.

Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raises from UTG+1 w/ KK to $10 and V is only caller.

Flop ($20) 952 Hero bets $15, V calls.

Turn ($50) 8 Hero checks (from my experience on 2+2 I'm guessing most people think this should have been a b/f). V bets $40. Hero calls.

River ($130) 8 Hero checks, V bets $100. Hero?

Back to the turn, is my re-draw with the K a reason not to b/f the turn?
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Old 12-29-2015, 03:53 AM   #2
shrewsbury91
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

I think you played it fine, if you did in fact fold the river. Don't really want to bet the turn and get raised off our equity.
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Old 12-29-2015, 03:57 AM   #3
SuckoutKing
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

You forgot to mention the Villain's position.

Without info about my opponents, I c/c river w/ KK b/c I expect to see some bluffs and beat at least some portion of the value range (at least A9, TT-QQ). He's loose preflop and you've signaled a weak range, so you should expect your opponent's betting range to be weaker too. It also doesn't hurt that the K reduces the number of flushes he can have.

On another note, if you can't c/c KK here, what are you calling with? Aren't you super exploitable if you c/f everything that doesn't have an 8 in it? Nothing else improves for you.
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Old 12-29-2015, 04:00 AM   #4
SuckoutKing
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

b/f turn is so frequently recommended because most opponents call too much and almost never bluff raise turn. It's an exploitative play. As such, it's often not the best play against a thinking opponent (or somebody who doesn't fit the stereotype).
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Old 12-29-2015, 12:04 PM   #5
Nice_Guy_Eddie
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

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Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Turn ($50) 8 Hero checks (from my experience on 2+2 I'm guessing most people think this should have been a b/f). V bets $40. Hero calls.

River ($130) 8 Hero checks, V bets $100. Hero?

Back to the turn, is my re-draw with the K a reason not to b/f the turn?
I'd check the turn and plan to c/r shove if villain bets. You're fine if it checks through to get a free card with the Kh draw and helps you get to a showdown with a medium hand. I'd bet all rivers if it checks through.

Villain has a stack of $160 left. He needs to call $160 to win $290 if you c/r shove. Anything other than a made flush is going to have a hard time calling. I don't think we get any more value from 9x/pp hands if we call the turn. We can fold better hands like two pair and probably sets. We take the hand from all drawing hands like AhXx who may not call or bet the river if they miss.

You have 9 outs if villain calls with an unlikely straight and are well ahead if villain calls with AhXx hands. You still have 6 outs against worse flushes, like QJhh. GG if villain has AhQh, AhJh, AhTh.

I think if you plan to call all river bets, you're better off shoving the turn to gain FE as oppose to relying on showdown equity.

I'd advocate b/f if you didn't have the Kh.
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Old 12-29-2015, 12:51 PM   #6
Koss
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

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Originally Posted by SuckoutKing View Post
b/f turn is so frequently recommended because most opponents call too much and almost never bluff raise turn. It's an exploitative play. As such, it's often not the best play against a thinking opponent (or somebody who doesn't fit the stereotype).
Yep. It sounds like this guy fits the mold of someone you wan to b/f against, which is probably how I approach the turn here You could possibly call with your K redraw if it's a small raise, but even then it's maybe not worth it since he could already have an A-high flush. If your read on him is strong then the river is a fold, although I hate overpairs on small boards because sometimes guys spazz out with smaller overpairs.
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Old 12-29-2015, 01:14 PM   #7
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

Meh, the 8 is a horrible card since it completes the flush and the 76 straight on a board with no Broadway cards, generally giving villain far fewer top pair hands in his range.

I assume TT-QQ are also quite unlikely given pre-flop.

Turn check is good. There just isn't enough value in a bet.

And yes, b/f turn is a little villain dependent, but it's mostly texture dependent.

If the board came two Broadways + a middle lower card where you have an overpair and the board smashes villain's pre-flop range with a mix of worse top pair, OESDs, gut shots, mid-pair + backdoors, etc., then I'd certainly b/f for value far more often.

In this case it's a check, and it's almost entirely because of range and texture.

Turn is probably just a check/fold.

Looking at the #'s, you have 200 effective left. Turn gives you just about 2:1. You're around 4:1 to hit your flush if you're behind. So you need to win 80 more when you hit to make it +EV assuming you're behind. However, you will also sometimes lose your entire stack when you hit re: RIO. Half his flushes might be nut. If you check river, he might check behind the straight. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way, but, well, here villain bet 100 on the river. If you made your flush and called, you'd just barely have made a profitable turn call... assuming you have the best hand! Which you often don't.

So yeah, just check turn, and when he bets 40 into 50, fold.

Sometimes he checks back (great - value bet lots of rivers) and sometimes he bets much smaller (we can peel a smaller bet here), but in this case, just fold.
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Old 12-29-2015, 03:04 PM   #8
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

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Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post

Back to the turn, is my re-draw with the K a reason not to b/f the turn?
Seems to me that you gained equity (and a blocker to his range) and this should give you a reason to value bet/fold turn instead of checking.
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Old 12-29-2015, 03:48 PM   #9
battagd1
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

I don't think checking turn is so bad, but you do lose initiative.

I call turn and river depending on whether I think Villan bet turn because he thought you were weak.
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Old 12-29-2015, 05:39 PM   #10
novice123
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

Raise more pf
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Old 12-30-2015, 12:12 AM   #11
Evoxgsr96
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Meh, the 8 is a horrible card since it completes the flush and the 76 straight on a board with no Broadway cards, generally giving villain far fewer top pair hands in his range.

I assume TT-QQ are also quite unlikely given pre-flop.

Turn check is good. There just isn't enough value in a bet.

And yes, b/f turn is a little villain dependent, but it's mostly texture dependent.

If the board came two Broadways + a middle lower card where you have an overpair and the board smashes villain's pre-flop range with a mix of worse top pair, OESDs, gut shots, mid-pair + backdoors, etc., then I'd certainly b/f for value far more often.

In this case it's a check, and it's almost entirely because of range and texture.

Turn is probably just a check/fold.

Looking at the #'s, you have 200 effective left. Turn gives you just about 2:1. You're around 4:1 to hit your flush if you're behind. So you need to win 80 more when you hit to make it +EV assuming you're behind. However, you will also sometimes lose your entire stack when you hit re: RIO. Half his flushes might be nut. If you check river, he might check behind the straight. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way, but, well, here villain bet 100 on the river. If you made your flush and called, you'd just barely have made a profitable turn call... assuming you have the best hand! Which you often don't.

So yeah, just check turn, and when he bets 40 into 50, fold.

Sometimes he checks back (great - value bet lots of rivers) and sometimes he bets much smaller (we can peel a smaller bet here), but in this case, just fold.
When do you think it is bad/-EV to bet/fold (such that this hand is too good to bet/fold or i don't want to bet/fold in this spot), in that a x-call or x-fold is higher EV. And do you think particular streets are better to bet/fold such as OTR vs. OTF/OTT.

I think with a more passive line you don't define your range/hand as much as well and it sometimes gets hard to play later in the hand esp vs. an agro/aggressive opp.

Also in this spot KK is like the middle of our range assuming we are checking sets and 2 pairs here as well or we have those hands in our x-call range here.
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Old 12-30-2015, 01:19 AM   #12
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

This Vs turn betting range (and even moreso his calling range for proponents of turn bet) is doing SO well here that you basically need Ahx min or some FH equity to continue ott. It may seem counter intuitive that KKh is doing so poorly, but with almost no worse hands in Vs range betting, a non nut BDFD w rio, against a likely nitty late street V, this is a good ck-f given his turn sizing (and a even clearer one AP otr).

We're not concerned with range protection whatsoever here, so a ck-c isn't necessary for any meta reasons obv.

I like your ck on the turn for reasons above, but the pair value on a middle ranked flop facing pressure is washed away at this bet sizing. Again, the Kh component isn't enough to warrant a call considering the only hands that you are beating are of the AhX variety which isn't going to let you win otr if V is capable of even taking such a line with it in the first place.

Last edited by Amanaplan; 12-30-2015 at 01:47 AM.
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Old 12-30-2015, 01:35 AM   #13
StraightFlooosh
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Re: 1/2: KK OOP with bad turn card

Assuming you folded the river, it looks well-played to me. People bluff too rarely on the river at LLSNL for that to be a profitable call, especially with his turn/river sizing. I also think checking or bet folding OTT is entirely villain specific.
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