Saturday night at the Twin River Casino in Rhode Island. Hero sat seven hands ago.

V1 is a white middle aged dude. The loosest player at the table. Has been involved in every hand so far.

V2 is a black dude in his 40s. Also loose but a bit more aggressive. He's lost a couple big pots since I sat down. Have seen one hand in which he limped 5w, called a raise from a good player in BB, checked behind on a K high flop and then called down turn and river to lose to BB's QQ. Then in another hand that was a 4w limped pot he bet $10 into $8 on an AT2r flop with A5o, bet the 7x turn and checked behind on a river pairing the board. He had gone to rebuy a few hands ago.

Hero has played one hand in the 7 hands I've been here. I raised from the blinds to $15 over five limps and everyone folded.

Effective stacks = $300

On to the hand

Hero raises UTG with K K. Folds to V1 who calls. V2 3bets to $30. Folds back to me. I ask each player to move their hands to look at stacks then make it $70. V1 folds. V2 thinks for a bit and calls.

$152 in pot after drop. Flop: Q 2 7.

Hero bets $75. V2 thinks for a few seconds and calls.

$302 in pot. Turn Q 2 7 Q.

Hero checks. V2 checks back somewhat quickly.

$302 in pot. River Q 2 7 Q A.

Hero checks. V2 thinks for ten seconds, cuts out chips, and pushes forward a $110 bet. Hero ???

I'm getting nearly 4:1 here, but it's rather difficult for villain to be bluffing. The suited aces got there, QQ/AQ/KQ/QJ are now either boats or trips, if he decided to flat the 4b with AA that's also a boat now. The only hands with no SDV he can have are things like JT which I can't count on being in his range to 3b against an UTG raiser. I kind of need him to be bluffing with a hand that would appear to have some SDV like TT/JJ. Is he doing that often enough to justify a call here? I feel like my hand is pretty face up by now, so it doesn't seem that unlikely for him to do that with those holdings.

I would 4-bet to $100 - $120 pre-flop, and make a pot committing (or all-in) cbet on the flop. Hope he has a Q or doesn't know how to fold a flush draw.

I think you were trying to suck in this player's whole stack with smaller bets? That's not terrible logic against a loose player who might call small raises with a ton of marginal hands, but tighten up against a large raise. But then why check the turn? If he's got the Q, he's got the Q; are you folding KK to a bad loose aggressive player who is overbetting with TPNK if he bets his final $150 into a $300 pot OTT? No, so just bet it yourself.

As played, I think you might've let him get there with an A, or maybe you were already dead to his Q. Either way I don't see his river bet as a bluff.

Higher 3 bet and more on the flop, we can easily get it all in on the turn.

But wait!

With a $152 pot on the flop already, we only have $155 effective left anyhow.

Once all in, the poker deities will sort it out.

By not betting enough now we mortals have to try.

Just because I'm not folding the turn doesn't mean that I necessarily want to bet the turn.

The idea of value betting is to get villain to call with something worse. I think villain can fold TT and JJ to a $150 bet on the turn, and I don't want that to happen. I think it's a lot more likely for him to either ship with a pocket pair to "protect" against AK or make a crying call when I bet on the river with those hands because my line looks a lot more FOS when I go bet/check/bet than when I go bet/bet.

Yes, that general logic does makes sense, but I would save it for a more thinking opponent. This guy does not look like he's trying to put you on a hand or thinking about bet/bet vs. bet/check/bet. And his call down against QQ when there was a K on the board does not suggest he would fold JJ or TT. I think delaying getting value from the turn here is unnecessary, especially since your all-in turn bet is only half the pot.

As played, you lose value to the river A even if this opponent didn't have an A (he would likely not bet the river in that case, but you also can't shove that river either). You also won't like a 3rd heart on the river. I wouldn't try to be sneaky with KK on the turn here.

Those bets were much smaller in absolute terms, came after a check on the flop, and were also from a player who seemed active. My case is a bit different. If I shove this turn, I expect that it will sound bells in the head of the average player. A guy who folded 85% of the hands he was dealt just 4bet UTG, c-bet a Q high flop and is now shoving on another Q. Most players are going to see that as pretty strong, and I don't think it's reliable to say a lot of players will call the shove with a lower pocket pair.

To put it in different terms, I find the risk of him folding the turn with a pocket pair higher than I see the risk of failing to bet to protect my equity. I see the improved chances of getting called by worse on the river to be worth it. I don't really expect him to do much "thinking" in treating b/c/b differently than b/b, but I know that it "feels" FOS when people do that. The plan is for him to scratch his head, ask why I didn't bet the turn, scratch his head again, and then a little while later say **** it and call.

Call. How often does he have a Naked A thats calling the flop? The A river is good for you because it makes him more likely to bluff the river after you check twice.

What would you have done on a brick river? I mean two checks by you in that scenario could convince V that he could vbet JJ in that spot. You appear weak now and scared of the board. Perfect bluff spot so it only depends on bluff tendencies of V imo.

Well I wouldn't say it's the naked aces I'm worried about as much as aces that flopped the NFD. My kings are black, so AKhh is possible. Whether he's squeezing and calling 4bets with suited aces as small as A2s is another question...seems doubtful, but I'd want to put a couple more suited aces in his range other than AKhh.

Also whether he just floats the flop with one of the other AK combos is a possibility. He might look at it and say I have two overs, a bdsd and a chance to ship the turn to rep the Q to blow this guy off JJ. I'm blocking half the AK combos so we're talking about 6 combos instead of 12 when the ace hits.

I do agree with you that the second check will cause some players to bluff with a wider range. The way I see it math-wise, I need to be good 20% of the time and am up against a value range that has 24ish combos (AA, QQ, AQ, AK, AJhh, AThh, KQ, QJs). I see his potential bluffing hands as rather limited (TT, JJ, JThh for 13 combos) but I only need him to have 6 of these combos to break even on a call. So it's a Bayesian thing: does he both get to this point with those combos and then decide to bluff with them roughly half the time or more?



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He has more bluff hands than that.
Although we have to add to your bayesian list the question if he would 3bet all those hands to start with.

Bet more on the flop and bet the turn. EZ game.

1) What did you open to? $12-15?
2) You 'only' 3-bet $40 into a pot pushing $80, with a player behind who may flat 'knowing' that V2 is loose and is likely to flat as well.

3) You put your hand face up strong by asking to see all the stacks
4) You have a loose Player V, typically they will call any size bet if they're going to call a bet at all. Flop sizing needs to be bigger to make a shove on the Turn a non-issue.

5) You only have 1/2 pot behind on the Turn .. get it in there. I know a paired card stinks and putting your money in bad stinks even more, but on the flip side the likelihood that he has a Q is less now that two are on the Board.
6) The River is classic tease, a loose Player can do this with TT-JJ/Qx/Ax. The fact that he had to think makes me believe that he has more bluffs than you think he does.

7) The quick check on the Turn is 'status quo' to him, so I think hes on a flush draw or smaller pair ... quick usually means 'nothing changed' . no need to think here.
8) The Ace stinks, but you are getting 4 to 1. The real question is what does he think you have? With such a small PF 3-bet I might put you in the 99-JJ range and you've checked the Ace so he has to do 'something' to win the pot.

Make the call and let him turn over 9Th for a scoop!! GL

4bet a smidge more multiway

Deeper a turn check is fine, but with a half pot bet left its just a shrug jam

Who had the effective stack of $300? (Did he bet $110 leaving himself like $50 bucks??)

1) I opened to $12.

2) The other player has less behind, something like $150. If he wants to call to create a $210 pot going to the flop with $80 behind in his own stack with something like 87o, A4o or 33 then I'm cool with that. He'll get his set in a 4b pot now and then but overall I feel good about the times he'll be putting money in bad against an overpair.

3) I don't think asking for that information is putting the hand face up more than the act of 4betting UTG. There are plenty of times I'll ask for that information while not holding a big hand. And regardless, I want to have it in mind so I can plan out the hand. It's worth it to me.

4) Why do you think betting half pot on the turn to get stacks in is an issue? Also, why would I want to choose such a large sizing for my entire range for this flop bet? Betting pot when I want to bluff is going to be more expensive than it has to be.

5) If I give him AQ and KQ (i.e. hands I was targeting by value betting flop) in his range, then I've gone from being able to be called by worse the vast majority of the time to being called by better slightly more often than being called by worse (8 AQ, 4 KQ, 2 QJs...also the occasional 1 combo of quads and 6 combos AA if he had decided to flat the 4b with those hands in position vs 6 TT, 6 JJ, and not even certain that the latter holdings pay me off when I shove so really 14+ vs 10ish) which means I'm value cutting myself while protecting my equity. Again, I thought there was a better chance to get value by x/c so that he would ship with TT/JJ with a plan to bet blank rivers and get looser calls.

I agree with most of the other points.







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He had a bit more than me to start. I think he left like $100 back.


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2) Didn't know V1 was short. I still don't want to offer 3 to 1, then 4 to 1 when I'm holding a premium hand. I do want to make sure if V1 shoves into my raise that betting is reopened so I can force V2 into a bigger decision PF or just take on V1 HU.

3) Anyone who asks for information during a hand, especially PF, sends warning lights off in my head. They are doing math. Typically PF it's done to set mine or with premium holdings ... not so often with suited connectors. Now to ask about the stacks and go 'cheap' like you did might throw me more towards set mining or at least a weaker pair (willing to fold to a jam perhaps). If you do it 'often' then it would have a lessor affect, but still worth some caution.

4) IMO if you think you are value betting then the more chips the better. A willing opponent will call 'any' size bet, so why not maximize it 'now'. I also don't want to think myself if I don't have to, nor do I want my opponents to have to think either. So if we size the Flop bet so that all decisions on the Turn are moot, then we've basically jammed the Flop ... without jamming the Flop.

5) You didn't mention the x/c approach in your OP. Although I don't mind giving my opponents a chance to bet/bluff, I typically like to do it from position by checking a Turn and letting them lead the River. When in position I will always have an opportunity to bet if they check twice. When OOP, it looks more trappy when you check a Turn and then lead a River. You have to mix up your play anyway, so this really isn't a big thing either way. GL