Local casino, friday night, drinks are flowing.

Background

I've been sitting at this table for a couple hours now. V in this hand is middle aged lady who I've played with before. I would say that she is a slightly above average player. I had an interesting hand vs V where I bluffed her off TPTK on the river on a 3 flush board and I showed the bluff. Since then, V is quipping that I'm her nemesis. I've been needling her back. It's all in good fun, I've paid for her beer a couple times and I took a smallish pot against her when she tried to bluff me a couple orbits later.

OTTH

V is effective stack with 470

EP makes it 8, Hero looks down at KK in the CO and makes it 30. V in the SB cold calls and EP folds.

Flop (70)

Ts6h4c

V leads for 50, Hero calls.

I've seen her lead one time before and she showed down a middling pocket pair. She's definitely not that great. At this point I'm trying to figure out what hand she would lead here (AA that she somehow flatted pre, QQ, JJ, TT, AT, maybe 66 but I would doubt she flatted 66 oop pre).

Turn (170)

9h

V bets 50 again, hero calls?

I don't think I should raise here, I want to keep her bluff and TPGK/OP in. If she flopped it then I can just call river and lose minimum (correct thought process?? The lead/lead definitely threw me off a little bit.)

River (270)

2c

V snap jam all in for 330. Hero?

Well played, now call the river. You are at the top of your range. If you fold KK here what will you call with? TT,99 only?

Given the dynamic and the way she's played the hand makes no sense and the above this is a clear call for me.

Also since Mike Postle I really hate this phrase now :"Drinks were flowing"

that is a weird line.

because if she flopped a set, when she bets 50 again on the turn, it looks like she is betting small to keep you in the hand and trying to get you to come over the top.

but if that is her thought process, why would she overshove the river and then lose all that value if her bet is too big for you to call.

at lower stakes I have seen this move quite a few times from more inexperienced players and a large percentage of the time they spazzing out with a missed AK.

pretty easy call.

Did she give up on the turn? She'll look and feel pretty bad if she blasts off her stack here against what looks pretty clearly like an overpair. I read the hand history first and my reaction was, if she's tricked me she's tricked me; I call.

What was her sizing like on her bluff hand? If she has value wouldn't she be inclined to bet similarly to her recent bluff hand?

If you're her nemesis can't she call pre w 9Ts?

Maybe if she were sober I could fold but not when the drinks are flowing.

I'd call, but I don't love it. I see low stakes players constantly bomb their "overpairs" into ranges that consists of bigger overpairs. Like they don't understand that against a TAG UTG raise, there is no difference between having 88 on a 962 flop vs. 762. A TAG never has a 9, but when they flop an overpair they go nuts for some reason. Not everyone, but often enough that I don't like folding big pairs on low flops.

Like you said, V probably flats JJ/QQ pre here, and I can see her taking this line. Sucks if it's TT/99, but I've seen enough 1/2 players punt this here that I think I can get behind a call.

If she has a better hand than QQ or JJ, then you're supposed to lose a lot of money.

Call.

She bet flop and turn and checked back river when she had the middling PP.

What gave me pause really was her sizing. It felt like these probe bet where the V bets smallish twice and feels like you really have a hand so you will obv call River. Instead of just sizing accurately to setup a 2/3 or 3/4 PSB on the river.

Do you think Vs will just blast the river with their OP regardless of the strength of the OP. They're just like welp, I held until the river and I still have an OP so I MUST be good. Without realizing that my range is going to be pretty strongly weighted on OP.

She definitely made me think about it but I decided to call because of the history between us. I feel like vs unknown I would be more likely to fold. She had AQo for the total air ball, which is the exact hand that I bluffed her with on the aforementionned hand. I had the Ax blocker to the nut flush though so my bluff made more sense lol.

Just like everyone said, i too feel this is a call. given your history with her, i can imagine her bluffing here with AQs/AJs etc. she also can have QQ, JJ here.

If she has a hand like TT, 99 then so be it. but i doubt TT,99 would take this line. her river shove looks as though she trying to scare you away, dont think she would play TT,99 this way.

As played and with this dynamic, you have to call river.

Donk bet flop and donk bet turn with the same bet sizing is, most of the time, a bluff. This is especially true in LLNL. I would never let them see the river and I'm raising the flop. You don't have to get crazy with the raise, just click it back and see how it develops from there.

As played, I don't like that you let them see the river and the 2 is problematic - you're going to see V turn over ducks on you quite a bit of the time. I think I can find a way to fold here.

If it's a bluff why would you raise? Wouldn't you want them to keep bluffing?

Because deuce on the river.

V has to call pre with 22, go ham with it on flop and turn. I feel like 22 are not even in her range here imo. If she's bluffing, raising flop is counter productive too. Maybe click back could induce a spaz but even then I feel like it's not optimal.

Snap city. I'd be screaming in my head before the river please shove please shove