Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
You are still misunderstanding. If bolded is the case you should be flatting even more so, do you see why?
Also those ranges I gave were worst case continuing ranges. Basically when you raise you fold out everything you are destroying (like his exact hand in this example) and get it in against a 50/50 equity range AT BEST.
If you're saying that flatting allows V2 to hang himself on most turns, then yeah, I understand what you mean. If it was me and V2 HU I would like this option. I wasn't entirely sure that V2 would fold out all the low equity garbage in his range; he seemed rather spewy at this point, so I thought I might be able to see him continue with garbage sometimes. In this hand I would have obviously preferred for him to call with a hand like JcTs. But if he was going to win the pot 22% of the time when he did continue, I'm not actually losing all that much in terms of EV. $19.70 according to my math below.
Scenario 1: I raise. Both V's fold. I win $95 throughout hand.
Scenario 2: I flat. V1 folds. Overall I win $114.70 throughout hand.
- V2 hits offsuit Q/7 or runner runner 2pr/trips on turn/river while I fail to redraw 22% of time. Gets in $100 extra on turn. I lose $170 throughout hand. $170 * .22 = -$37.40
-V2 misses but gets in $100 on turn 78% of time. I win $195 throughout hand. $195 * .78 = +$152.10
The bigger question, though, is about V1 continuing with a wide range if my plan is to raise any non-club turns. With both me and V1 300bb deep I did not consider this trivial at all. If I was V1 and knew there would be potential for those kind of fireworks on the turn, I could profitably call the flop getting 4:1 with straight draws hoping to hit something offsuit on the turn. If hero flats with a plan to raise non-club turns, am I planning to raise/fold when V1 bet/3bets big on turns that seem somewhat random? Or do we just call the 3bet and call it a cooler when the redraw doesn't hit? Even if I do raise/fold in those spots, I feel like I'm losing a lot of money on a situation that I could have prevented by manipulating V1's implied odds slightly OTF.