Hero ($200): UTG+2, mid-20s been playing at the table for about an hour. Very tight but have come in for a raise almost every hand. Me and main villain had history where I 3b squeezed his UTG+1 open with AKo. He looked at me, asked how much the bet was, and folded.

Villain (Covers): MP, looks about my age, mixed skin. He's been at the table for about half an hour, but so far has seemed to raise more than his fair share of hands preflop. Has cbet a couple of times and seemed at this point to be competent.

Hero raises to $10 w KK, 3 callers

Flop ($43): Q32

Checked to me, Hero bets $25, Villain raises to $65, folds to me who calls

Turn ($173): 7

Hero checks, Villain bets $85, Hero....($129 left)?????



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My thought process here is why is he raising the flop? AA and QQ from this guy surely is a 3bet preflop. But then, why would he raise 22 and 33? There's only 6 combos of that as well. But what other hands could he possibly have? His whole line just doesn't make sense.

Shove. There is no way you aren't calling a 1/2 pot bet with an overpair here and at that point you might as well get it all in the middle.



Edit- I think he raises the flop with AQ, 22, 33, and some small number of bluffs. I also think i'd have bet more like $35 on that flop since you'd still get a call from any Q and aren't giving 45 good odds to call.

what range do you think he puts you on when you call the flop raise?

You're at the top of your range OTF so if you fold (or call flop raise and c/f turn) then you're only calling the flop raise with top set, which is way too narrow and exploitable.

You beat all Qx OTF and V could be continuing turn with hands like KQ or maybe 45 if that's in his call PFR range.

Before you call the flop raise you should have a plan for the turn. Once you get to the turn with this stack size, you should be getting it in.

He's moderately competent and is familiar with c-betting. Think about what he has seen..
You made what looks like a standard open at 1-2 and followed up on one of the driest boards possible. It's a heads up pot and your bet of 25 into 43 doesn't look overly value oriented (in 1-2, value usually looks like 80%+). He's gotta figure you're doing this with all of your range, regardless of whether you hit or not, and even if he's holding air and makes a bluff raise, he only has to take down the pot 50% of the time to be profitable. When you call, he probably puts you on a medium pocket pair and figures he can blow you off on the turn. It smells bluffy, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn over something like ace-ten of hearts. The only real hands that are beating you are 22 and 33 and even if he had them, why would he raise on the flop, in position? There aren't any real draws to be scared of and he doesn't want to fold a middling pair.

If you're thinking of continuing, you have to ship it here.

You'd make the same $25 c-bet with AK into a pot of $42, so V probably doesn't give you much. Your bet-call, followed by a turn check seems weak with a pot of $173. V looks like he has KQ and figures it's good OTT. The pot is big and your SPR is low. If you had AQ or better, you'd have to ship the turn. So from V's perspective, you must have KQ or worse.

Raise all-in.

I will say that it was the flop decision that took the longest, mainly because I was planning out the rest of the hand. We shouldn't have a flop 3bet range on this board texture against most opponents with this stack depth, correct? It's so dry that his bluffs don't really have much equity so they aren't going to call, but a Qx might fold. I had decided, given stack sizes to flat the flop and xjam most turns. Our range does look weaker but we use this betsize to entice callers with weaker hands. So I can have a Qx that seems afraid and willing to fold for stacks.

But what is he doing this with? Am I right in thinking that his line makes absolutely zero sense?

Not sure why everyone is gung ho about shipping turn. He's not folding any made hand but there is a solid percentage that he's just trying to push you off a hand. Call all rivers and shove any check. Same result except you get him to bluff off his stack on the river some of the time.

Just shove. He could have you beat, but he could easily have AQ or KQ, and I'm never folding an over-pair here for 100bb.

Hero will have $44 left on the river. Is V really folding AQ (or any piece of this) for $44 on the turn? If so, fine. I'm never just calling and giving V the chance to fold for my final $44 on the river.

Misread stack size. Thought there was $115 left after turn call. Yes then just get it in. Also this weird size tells me he has no idea what effective stacks are. All the more reason to get all in.

If he's competent, there's a non-zero chance he's bluff-raising your c-bet, thinking you're FOS. It could be sets here too (I don't think he's raising Qx) trying to build a pot and hoping you can't leggo top pear, but flopping sets is hard. There are a smattering of hands like A4/A5/46/45 of hearts that semibluffed flop and turned the world that could be overplaying now.

Folding here vs. an unknown is a disaster, your line looks good, now shove.

Thanks for all the replies! I was fairly certain he was a bit FOS. I jammed, he thought for about 20 seconds before calling. He didn't show his hand when I showed my KK and a K came on the river.

bet bigger on flop

jam turn and feel good of about 6 on a scale of 1-10

Why are we betting bigger on such a dry flop?

For those who aren't strong post, the hand plays easier with a bigger flop bet.

You had a plan and can play post so you can get away with sizing smaller to induce floats and bluff raises.