Tighter 1/2 casino game. Not a whole lot of action going on, Hero is debating a table change at this point

Villian: (335) Mid 30's or so WG. Ok TAG, seemed to limp more pre than opening when compared to a solid TAG, but seemed to play ok postflop. One hand of note: Villain had won a $250-$300 pot maybe 20-30 minutes ago when he iso jammed the turn on 28Xhh9x with K6hh from the sb over a a fishes jam of about 60 or so to make the third player fold, so this villian is capable of making a move.

Hero: (Covers) Mid 20's WG, at this table for about an hour, seemed to have a fairly standard TAG image. Opened a few pots and had not been to showdown yet.


KK UTG hero opens to 10, UTG +1 calls, Villian 3! to 27 from the SB, Hero 4 bets to 75, UTG +1 folds Villian calls

Interesting spot, could be a trapping AA but we should be way ahead almost always. Thinking JJ+ and AK while heavily discounting AK and KK because blockers.

Flop: (160) A:club :Ax 8

Villain Checks, Hero Checks

I would be checking my entire range here, dont really see the point in betting any hand I could have, which includes AK. Kc blocker is nice to have.

Turn (160) 5x

Villain leads 100, Hero Calls

Feel like this is pretty standard call here. Villain could be leading his JJ and QQ here thinking he might be good. KK is a great hand to have because it makes it less likely villain has AK, and I highly doubt this villain is 3 betting AQ pre. Of course we could be crushed here sometimes but we should be getting a good enough price to call.

River: (360) 5x

Villain jams for 160, Hero??

Interesting. Getting better than 3-1 here, whats the play?

I know this is going to sound weird and MUBSy but I kind of want to fold the turn. Depends what you mean by "OK TAG". Against a player who is thinking about what we have, he shouldn't ever be betting JJ here, because the preflop 4bet and flop checkback just looks like we have KK+/AK. Against level 0 players you're going to have to call because they're just like "have big pair, he checked, BET", but from a level 1 player this would be a really weird spot to either bluff or value bet light.

How can V bet QQ/JJ like this if he's a remotely competent thinking player?

If he has QQ his likely widest possible range for hero looks like:

AA 1 combo, AK 8 combos, KK 6 combos, QQ 1 combo, JJ 6 combos, TT 6 combos. He's completely crushed by 15 combos and is crushing 12. He also knows if you have KK it's hard for you to fold due to how few AX he has and that if you have QQ- it's hard for you to call anything because you he appears to have all the AX combos and KK.

Being OOP makes it worse for him because he knows you can easily trap over two streets. I think he could take a single stab at the pot with JJ but he's basically turning his hand into a bluff. There's no point him betting QQ because your weaker hands can never call and your stronger hands can never fold. Once you flat the turn bet I believe he shuts down with everything less than KK because he knows you can only really call down with KK+ and you have 15 combos of that.

Therefore I'd fold the turn even though you're getting a good price.

I think his turn betting range is [AA AK KK JJ] and his river betting range is [AA AK KK]. Note also that it's easier for V to inadvertently have AXs going to this flop AND end up taking this line with it than it is for him to have pairs TT- and end up taking this line with them. So if we were to expand his betting ranges we'd be more correct to add AX than to add pairs we beat.

So calling turn is correct IMO but I concur with ChrisV that river is a nit-fold vs a thinking player.

What other Ax hands does he have? TAG’s generally aren’t 3 betting AQ or worse and they for sure aren’t flatting a 4 bet OOP with just Ax. Remember, he was generally passive pre with a few opens mixed in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could go either way on turn/river. One of them is a fold and I think it is table read dependent.

If I call the turn, I call the river.

I can go either way, but I probably just fold the turn. He could easily have AK/AQ or even AA.

People do funny things from time to time. I agree a TAG won't generally 3bet light from the blinds vs an EP open but if they had a moment of spaz the hands they're most likely to do it with are AXs. Once someone's done something they realise is silly they either fix it by getting out of the hand ASAP or they talk themselves into continuing via all sorts of rationalisations. Indeed, a lot of the newbies' posts I see on here involve exactly this occuring.

So if there's an element of spaz going on in this hand then I think it tends to favour the villain having more Trip-aces than he should rather than him having more pairs turned into multi-street bluffs.

Remember, you are checking your entire range on the flop -- V is probably doing the same. Why would he bet AK/AQ there? And, yes, I see players flat 4bets with these hands, especially AKs.

AK is enough. There's 8 combos of that compared to 12 of QQ/JJ, but when he bets the turn I'm heavily weighting his range to AK. KK possible as well but only one combo of that obviously.

If we assume this range, its surprising how heavily we have to weight his range to AK in order for us to not be getting the right price. We only have to be good 23% of the time for this call to breakeven.

There are only 4 combos of AK available when we hold KK and flop has two Aces.

Something happening here in the minds of those wanting to call river (and turn TBH) is the assumption that V cannot have much AX because only AK continues pre Vs the 4bet. That assumption is based on the idea V won't make many mistakes preflop.

However, the mistake involved in calling the 4bet wider preflop is only a $48 error and the mistake made 3bettibg wide in the first place is only a $27 mistake. While these mistakes seem unlikely surely they are more likely than the $260 mistake postflop of betting something KK beats?

The assumption V can't have much AX here requires V to simultaneously make very few mistakes preflop and a lot of much bigger mistakes postflop. Is that particularly rational thinking? I think it is more wishful thinking...

The issue with this thinking is again that this villain was more passive preflop, so he was highly unlikely to turn his Ax hands into bluffs. Also his 3! sizing would indicate a hand that has some showdown value being on the smaller side. If this was a squeeze with Ax wouldn’t he size it bigger to try and get us to fold? We are getting a pretty good price to flat and play poker with that sizing.

I feel like players at 1/2 are more likely to make the mistake of “I haz JJ/QQ and he checked flop, I must be good!” Or “he checked flop so he must have KK, maybe he’ll fold if I bet.”

I just have a hard time given the description of our villain that he just always has Ax here, as we’ve seen him get out of line in a spot where he was guaranteed to get to showdown. So we have to assume he’s capable of turning JJ/QQ into a bluff here. I mean what happens more often, a 1/2 player gets out of line with Ax, gets 4 bet, and decides “f it I’ve gone this far” and calls pre, or a 1/2 player 3 bets JJ/QQ, gets 4 bet, and thinks “man I have JJ/QQ and that’s a really good hand, but I don’t wanna go all in here” and just flats? I’m taking the latter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is weird, but any chance he's turning suited connex into a bluff? I've definitely seen guys get aggro with 89hh-type hands then take approach either the aggressor has an ace or doesn't and bet based on that.

I.e. He made a three bet move, got caught speeding then felt priced in?

Buggits30 - yeah the read "passive preflop" does count against a light 3bet but how solid is this read? Maybe he's just been dealt hands that deserved to be played passively preflop for the last 4hours ( or more likely should all just have been folds)? If that were the case and he's actually a frustrated aggro player (his postflop action in the other hand suggests this TBH) then surely he can finally be dealt an A9+ or AXs hand in the blinds and spaz 3bet it?

Yes I can see V having QQ/JJ, hence why I agreed with calling the turn. At the same time just because he has it post flop does he elect to bluff the river? I mean if he doesn't have AX it's incredibly easy for you to have it, particularly if he has QQ/JJ and is blocking some of your non AX 4betting hands.

In my game most players are terrified they face QQ+ AK when you 4bet them. They also expect to be trapped by AX on an AA? flop.

If he has QQ does he really think you can call with JJ or that you'll actually fold KK? It's a very risky move when, from his perspective you also have a ton of AX.

If he is bluffing I think he has JJ or smaller because I think he thinks he has showdown value with QQ. If he has JJ or lower you can have all available combos of AK and AQ (people do 4bet AQ as a bluff). Then he's only expecting to get folds from QQ and maybe KK and facing tons of AX. It's just such a crazy spot to bluff precisely because even the dumbest players can workout ranges here because they're so damned narrow.

Can he be value betting QQ/JJ? Yes, if he's particularly stupid I guess he can be. However, if he's that dumb then I'm not convinced he won't 3bet wider than JJ+ sometimes so I think he can also have more AX than you think.

As you say you don't need much equity to call river so if your in game read was strong that this guy has significant bluffs here then I certainly won't criticize a call - you were there I wasn't. I'm just giving my thought processes on the hand for what they're worth (maybe not much!)

This.

I call turn because of the flop X/X but it's close. Villain IMO is checking all aces on the flop, but can also have a worse pair thinks they are good by the turn.

I think I sigh fold the river. It's just a kind of dumb spot for villain to bluff the river and after turn action I think they check a lot of pairs <KK. You also can have a bunch of aces here.

Price makes it tempting, but I think you are losing too often here to call.

Bet range otf (obviously for a small sizing). Checking is not good.

Checking is only not good if we have bluffs like 98s in our 4bet range. If our 4! range (and more importantly, V's perception of Hero's 4! range) is QQ+/AK, checking that whole range seems good on this flop as it's the precise definition of a WA/WB spot.

I check my whole range on this flop for sure

Fwiw I took the 3 bet as villain saying he had a pretty strong hand, a spazz bluff would probably be bigger imo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Definitely appreciate the discussion this hand brought up. My only problem with your thinking is that it seems like you are leveling yourself into thinking that villain can have a ton of Ax hands here, when I just dont see it. I mean sure, maybe theres a chance he spazz 3 bets Ax here but I just dont see how often compared to JJ/QQ, which is going to be 3 bet a ton. Also flatting a 4 bet with Ax is suicide, while flatting a 4 bet with JJ/QQ is a pretty standard play imo. (For most 1/2 players that is)

Honestly I posted this spot more for the discussion than the actual advice, as I have talked it over with a friend who crushes 1/2 and 2/5 and we both came to the same conclusion that I made the right decision at the table.

What was that decision? Hero tank calls, villain says "youre probably good, I have JJ". Hero shows and scoops.

The biggest thing here is that we have evidence to show that villain is capable of trying to make an opponent fold a better hand. Because of this, we have to assume he will try and turn JJ or QQ into a bluff a decent amount of the time when we check the flop back. Also considering how hard its going to be for villain to have an A here we are getting way too good of a price to fold, we would really have to think the spazz factor is pretty high in order to find enough Ax hands for villain in order to fold. Quite frankly if villain is bad enough to have any Ax other than AK here, he can have my stack as I'll be felting him in many other situations to make up for it, not to mention hes burning money calling my 4 bet that wide setting up an SPR of <2.

Agree that it's a poor spot for him to turn his hand into a bluff.

Most of the time, I'd probably fold the turn, but it's player and read dependant.

I think there are more people who will make a terribad preflop call with Axs OOP then would try to bluff their way out of a 4 bet pot w JJ, but your read was correct.
If you are $500 deep and he still bombs the river it's a lot harder to call.

this. you have to call for that price.

Ok good read.

I think I've leveled myself here slightly and I think it's due to confusion over the other hand you ascribe to V. I guess I thought V shoved the turn with King-high flush to get it HU Vs a perceived smaller FD or straight draw in the hands of the short stack. However if that's not the case and short stack looked most likely to have a pair+ then V's "move" isn't really a move it's just a ******ed shove into a dry side pot with King-high.

If it was the latter scenario then that fits perfectly with spaz betting QQ- in the hand vs hero and I get your read and concur with your call down. I'd be committed to calling down both turn and river as Javanewt suggested.

My problem was I was trying to reconcile this guy supposedly playing well postflop with him taking this line as a bluff and I just couldn't make sense of that at all.ade more sense he ****ed up pre, got lucky and is betting for value when he fired turn and river.

If he's actually just an incompetent donkey then sure, makes total sense. I estimate his thought process was:

"I have a pair and, you checked so I must bet. You called, but you checked before = confusion... but I bet before so can't fold now and I don't want to call if you bet but I don't want to fold if you bet because I put so much in already and of course you might have a worse pair. If you had an Ace that'd be bad because I'll definitely lose this hand but you can't have an Ace because there's two and you checked - phew! So maybe you think I have Ace so if I move in you'll fold KK/QQ because you're a nit but you'll call TT/99 because you're a station."

I guess he says "you're probably good" after you call river just to help save face if he doesn't win show down.

Still a strange line for anyone to take though. Thanks for an interesting one!