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1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat 1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat

08-05-2014 , 11:10 PM
I'm UTG+1 and bet $13 with KJ. I have $245 in front of me and a solid, little bit active image. MP calls as does the SB. SB is a tight fishy rec player, MP is a young guy who hasn't gotten involved much in the hour at the table. Both cover, MP has $400.

Flop 2 4 6 ($36 pot)

SB checks.
I bet $25.
MP makes it $65
SB folds.
Hero?
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-05-2014 , 11:22 PM
If you like variance, raise to 140 and call. If you don't like variance fold. Given your reads its really hard to tell if you have fold equity or not.

It boils down to does villian raise only sets and AhXh and 4hXh here? Does he raise call 77,88-TT?

You actually want a call from 7h8h and 8h9h type hands and from 77-TT. So without information any play is fine coz you gots the equity duh!
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-05-2014 , 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zugzwangg
If you like variance, raise to 140 and call. If you don't like variance fold. Given your reads its really hard to tell if you have fold equity or not.

It boils down to does villian raise only sets and AhXh and 4hXh here? Does he raise call 77,88-TT?

You actually want a call from 7h8h and 8h9h type hands and from 77-TT. So without information any play is fine coz you gots the equity duh!
Raising back here is an losing play. A tight Villain is almost never folding after raising you on the flop, so you have like zero FE. if you jam and are called you're basically just on a FD with ~36% equity since your over cards will almost never be outs.

If you call his flop raise to try to make a flush you need 4-1. And you have to call $40 more to win about $125. So you're getting a little better then 3-1 in pot odds. You have to make up that additional $35 when you hit your draw, bet, are called, and still deny proper odds for him to draw with a FH. And this is all just to get to neutral EV, not +EV.

If you call and hit your flush you'll have almost a pot sized bet left. If you then jam you'll be laying the V about 2-1, which is not good enough (3.5-1 required) for him to correctly draw to a FH. So if you think this player will still stack off on a flushing turn (or if he's aggressive enough to jam all flushing turns when checked to) then calling flop raise is correct. If you think that V
will fold OTT when the flush comes and he doesn't have proper odds to draw just fold OTF.
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-06-2014 , 12:22 AM
Stuff it. Worst case it will help your image. As long as you don't run into A4hh your equity is good enough and you might have some FE against smaller overpairs.
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-06-2014 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zugzwangg
If you like variance, raise to 140 and call. If you don't like variance fold. Given your reads its really hard to tell if you have fold equity or not.

It boils down to does villian raise only sets and AhXh and 4hXh here? Does he raise call 77,88-TT?

You actually want a call from 7h8h and 8h9h type hands and from 77-TT. So without information any play is fine coz you gots the equity duh!
Board: 2h 6h 4c


Hand 0: 24.099% 23.67% 00.43% 4452 81.00 { KhJh }
Hand 1: 75.901% 75.47% 00.43% 14196 81.00 { 6c6d, 6c6s, 6d6s, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 2c2d, 2c2s, 2d2s, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, 5h4h, 4h3h }

Yikes, variance indeed. Thanks for the thoughtful replies everyone. In reality, both villains folded to my bet on the flop. As "played", I would've folded without more information.
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-06-2014 , 06:30 PM
.
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote
08-06-2014 , 06:58 PM
V's going to have to show up w 33 55 AhJx AhQx or stuff like 88 pretty often to make me want to get jiggy in this spot.
1/2 KJs, overs + FD facing heat Quote

      
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