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1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. 1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion.

01-13-2017 , 03:45 PM
Hero just sat down bought in for $200 everyone covers. I am known at the table as to be pretty tight but knowing the majority of the table these guys like to try to put beats on people and throw chips all over.

I'm in the BB, there's some very loose players at the table. Button is an unknown but probably a good player since he has $600 but I have no clue as I haven't seen him play a hand. I know that 2 players are tight the rest will call raises with virtually any 2 cards.

I look down at JJ
UTG makes it $16 UTG+1,2,3 all call. +4 is tight and he calls as well as the button.

My question is do we float this and see what the flop is like or should we reraise and try to eliminate some of them? Personally knowing these guys I think if I make it $50 to go they will all still call.

I decide to call and see a flop of 10,8,2 rainbow. I check as does everyone else. Turn is a 4 I bet $45 and UTG calls everyone else folds. River is another 2. I check hoping he bets because I was going to flat him but he checked also. He shows a 10 and I take it down.

Should I of played differently or did I take an acceptable line? We're not going to always flop an over pair with JJ so that is why I didn't raise preflop and decided to play it cautiously.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 03:50 PM
There's $96 in the pot when it gets to you? I'm probably just ripping it in pre. As played I'm putting it all in otr. What are you hoping he bets that he won't call otr?
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 03:53 PM
Bet the river. Also, bet larger on the turn, about $60-$70ish.

Pre can go either way. I lean towards just flatting vs a raise from UTG.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 03:54 PM
Your line is pretty ugly, considering stacks, IMO. I'm making it something like $60 more pre-flop.

As played, you should definitely be betting more on the turn. I'm probably betting $70 and shipping my last $115 on the river.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 04:07 PM
Unless UTG is pretty tight I'd just shove preflop. We don't have this information during the hand, of course, but the fact that he had a T shows his UTG range is wide enough to make a shove very profitable. The cold callers usually aren't trapping with bigger pairs in a multi-way pot.

Our hand is too strong to almost turn into a set-mine by calling here, I think. Maybe a smaller raise is better, but it's that or shove.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 04:08 PM
This is an excellent (basically the nut) squeeze spot pre, and the fact that you actually have a good hand makes it even better. There's almost $100 in the pot and you have $200 back. The only person that could have a hand that's ahead of JJ is UTG, everyone else is at best flipping with a hand like KQ. You're also out of position on all future streets so playing post-flop is that much less attractive.

So, I shove pre. $50 would have been way, way too small. You're right that everyone is calling a $50 bet, so if you viewed your options as raise to $50 or flat, flatting may be better. If you shove, a lot of times you win $100 risk free. If UTG calls, you've put in $200 to win a bit less than $500, so you need to be a bit more than 40% to have made a breakeven play against his calling range. If UTG is calling with JJ+/AK, you still have 36.5% equity, so you haven't made a huge mistake, and it's more than made up for by the times that you win all the pot. If UTG ever calls with TT or AQ or worse hands, you're actually breaking even when you're called so not making a mistake even ignoring all the times you take down $100 without seeing a flop. If anyone other than UTG calls you're at worst flipping against two overcards with a ton of dead money, and sometimes getting it in as an 80/20 favorites.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 04:19 PM
You have JJ in EP, with 100BB stack.

With multiple callers, you could set mine up to 10% of your stack, or $20, so at a call of $16, you could call to set mine. But, you also have a made hand.

The only player you have to worry about is the original raiser. I would probably tend to call the pre and shove the flop on anything less than ten high.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 04:35 PM
I think the real question here is what's the worst hand that we can shove with. If we think we get folds here 50% of the time, I think we can shove with ATC here. Assume only UTG can call a shove, and when he calls you have 20% equity (32o has 21.7% equity v. a calling range of JJ+/AK). So, half the time you win $100. The other half the time you spend $200 and have 20% equity in a $500 pot, so the other half the time you lose $100. Breakeven play even with air.

My instinct is that unless UTG is very tight, the first time we make this play we take it down significantly more than half the time, and we could profitably shove with anything here. Of course, if we do this once or twice, people would adjust and call us down lighter, but I think you get one freebie if you will. Either way, with JJ the shove is incredibly +EV. In real life if I haven't made any moves yet I probably shove here with something like 77+/Ax/broadway cards. Then, I tighten up my range for the next time as I expect to take it down less often.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 04:56 PM
MIB what if you expect to get called by 3 or 4 of them preflop? That's probably what would of happened however I do like your suggestion and was on the fence of shoving and figured if over cards came out I would just rebuy.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drawing dead 81
MIB what if you expect to get called by 3 or 4 of them preflop? That's probably what would of happened however I do like your suggestion and was on the fence of shoving and figured if over cards came out I would just rebuy.
Hard to do the math if you expect to get 3 or 4 calls. Would be very, very surprised if that was the case if you're shoving $200. However, if you're getting 3 or 4 calls, with JJ you should still be shoving because if people are calling that light you're way ahead of their calling ranges.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 09:35 PM
Thinking about it more, with the money already in the pot, I like getting it in pre.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-13-2017 , 10:38 PM
Shoving QQ/JJ all day here pre. Raising to ~ 100 with AA/KK
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-14-2017 , 02:18 AM
*have
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-14-2017 , 03:01 AM
Jam pre
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-14-2017 , 09:01 AM
Since you know the players I would assume you know that UTG o/r light in EP. It's obvious that that the other players don't give his o/r any respect. I would also assume, that since they're calling $16 with drawing hands, that they expect some of their Vs to continue post-flop when they hit the Flop. Even though the Button is tight, he is getting 4-1 on his money, so if it's true that ripe IO are possible vs. these Vs, he should be calling with 54s.

IMO, none of the callers have JJ+ or they would have raised, so I don't see how they can call a substantial raise preflop. The only one you have to be concerned with is UTG. If you play vs. his range you are a substantial favorite. Even if UTG's range is as tight as 88+ ATs+ AJo QJs+ you have 55% equity & it is likely he is wider than that.

If you go all-in pre & UTG only calls with QQ+, AK, that's 34 combos he calls with & 53 that he folds. So he calls 39% of the time. When he calls, you still win 38% of the time.

Now there's $81 in the pot - $7 rake & $1 tip = $73 net

.61 [% he folds] * $73 = $44.53 +Ev
[.39 (% he calls) * .62 (% you lose)] * $200 = $48.36 -Ev
[.39 * .38 (you win)] * $257 = $38.08 +Ev

Net realized profit: $34.25

You called pre, so you're basically set-mining or hoping for a favorable flop. You got it, but then you failed to bet. You only flop an overpair to the flop with JJ about 43% of the time, so IMO, you have to lead out with a bet. UTG called your $45 OTT, so I would think we could assume he would call a ¾ pot sized bet OTF.
AP, I think you have to bet the River. If he had QQ+, I believe that he would raise you OTT & why in the world would he check the Flop?! If he's sticky, you can make it $90. Otherwise, I would bet $60. It is less likely that he'll try & steal the pot with a raise OTR if you make it $90, but less likely that he'll call.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-14-2017 , 09:22 AM
What is your range for the UTG? Pretty simple math problem once you give the UTG a range.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote
01-14-2017 , 07:34 PM
4 or 5 people are calling $16 on a 1/2 table you need to shut that **** right down and charge them to play any 2 cards when trying to throw a beat on you. Im raising to $80 to $100 Pre flop. $50 is inviting someone to toss in the $34 with A+rag and at least 2 more will say "well I got pot odds" and call with the same trash they were calling in with $16 with. a total of 3 pairs beat you pre flop and you still only have a 1 pair hand against some loose sneaky players.

Big bet pre, Jam the flop. you only have $200.
1/2 JJ looking for suggestions on how I played vs how I should of in your opinion. Quote

      
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