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1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button 1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button

05-04-2010 , 06:44 AM
Conditions:

1/2 NL, $300 buy in, 9 players, Foxwoods
Time: Sunday morning, 7:30am
General observations: Most people still there from last night >$300, 2 short stacks. Random play. Only one seriously weak player at the table.

Reads/Opponents:

Button $300: G [24?] is on his first orbit & button. No activity at the table yet, but I recognize him. Read from last time is vague: decent player, knows his fundamentals, not too fancy. He doesn't seem comfortable in the casino - Internet player?

SB $400: A couple of times P [33?] said he is gambling as a taunt to get a call. He's mostly full of BS. I've played him before, he's dangerous. He does seem to be taking a lot of risks this morning. Lost $200-250 getting involved in pots but not winning.

BB $230: S [45?] arrived a few orbits ago. Won a few medium pots with aggression pf/flop. Lost $130 5 hands ago with AK calling a short stack all in (Axx flop).

Action:

Folds around to G on the button. He raises to $15.

P calls $15 from the small blind.

S takes a peek at JJ and ???

Last edited by KurtSF; 05-04-2010 at 09:06 AM. Reason: no names
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
Folds around to G on the button. He raises to $15.
I would expect him to do this with a wide range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
P calls $15 from the small blind.
This guy was a little reckless, he could have a lot of hands. But he was on a losing streak and should be tightening up

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
S takes a peek at JJ and ???
I'm going with "S raises $50".

A fold would be silly and a call puts us in set mining mode. We don't have Harrington's 25:1, but could get 15:1 if we stack off. Neither opponent is going to stack off light.

There's $32 in the pot. A min-raise to $30 will get called by both opponents (don't they always?). I would prefer two folds and off to the next hand.

A bigger raise probably takes the pot down (85% chance?). In this game a re-pop out of the BB is almost always KK/AA. It's unusual to have a hand go $50 preflop. Probably enough to get the folds.

If someone plays back at it they are extremely likely to have KK/AA themselves. We can fold to a push without crying too much.

I think $65+ is too much.

If one person calls $50 that makes the pot $130 and eff stack $180.

Should that lean me towards $65 (pot $160, stack $165)?

Last edited by KurtSF; 05-04-2010 at 09:06 AM. Reason: no names
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 08:09 AM
Kurt ain't gonna appreciate u putting 'live' player's names in.

I call PF as when I 3bet out of the BB it's usually the very top or the very bottom of my range (or hands that I won't call with but do have blockers like KJo.)
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 08:16 AM
I always call here thats only because no on folds preflop and its the hand becomes easier post flop.

If he has a wide range preflop I 3bet here to $50
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 09:21 AM
I had to take the names out per the LLNL Posting Guidelines. Tried and true ways of referring to the players without using names include:

* villain1, villain2, etc.
* using their position, BU, SB, BB, etc.
* giving them colorful acronyms (the Tight Old Nit in seat 5 = TON, etc.)

The rest of the post was terrific BTW! Descriptive title, descriptions with reads and stacks on all players and the table, clear action. Well done.

Re: the hand itself, my only concern with re-raising in this spot is that you're so far ahead you risk ending the hand immediately. OTOH, half of flops are going to kinda suck, and you get to spring any traps P might be laying, and isolate which will probably clean up some outs for you and make you more likely to win. I go with:

S raise to $60
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtSF
I go with: S raise to $60
A raise certainly, but I'd bump it higher because OP doesn't want a call. I'd go $80. It won't look that weak because the OP just lost a hand with TPTK and it will seem like he has a big pair and doesn't want someone sucking out on him. It will also be hard to call because medium pairs will know there is no IO and there's no flop they'll love unless they hit a set.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 10:12 AM
Hero wants a call. Yes JJ is tricky to play, but villians hand range is crushed here and if JJ is tricky to play K10 or 96s or A5o or w/e is infinitely more tricky to play. You have to reraise, pot is around $60 or so, so anything from $50-$70 should be fine. Bet more if you think they are inclined to snap / spite call.

One thing though - live players do not view position quite the same way as the dudes gambling on the internet, so bare that in mind.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtSF
I had to take the names out per the LLNL Posting Guidelines.
The names were made up, but I gotcha. Thanks for the valuable input so far. Calling seems viable to play a smaller pot. My choice of $50 was probably too small.

Continuing the action...

S takes a peek at JJ and raises to $50
"G" calls. "P" folds.
Two to the flop for $115. 3 6 8 rainbow. We act first.

My stack is $180, he has me covered.

The baby flop should make me happy. My thoughts are wobbling between "oh boy I'm in trouble now" and "I hope he has AK".

His probable range is QQ/KK/AA/AK with a leaning toward QQ/AK.

He probably thinks I have KK or AA.

I decided on a bet of $65. I'm not sure I can justify this, it just felt right. $80-90 is probably more believable.

I'm folding to a push (yeah, dump half my stack and fold). Horrible? I just can't see having any chance at that point. The charade has gone far enough.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 12:55 PM
uhhh... why would u fold to a push? You raise with strong hands to build big pots so that you can win them, not give them to whatever random crap your opponent decides to go all in with. Have a little faith in your pair of jacks bro. Jacks are monster compared to the garbage these guys play. I'm probably bet calling on a Qxx board let alone 8xx.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
A raise certainly, but I'd bump it higher because OP doesn't want a call. I'd go $80. It won't look that weak because the OP just lost a hand with TPTK and it will seem like he has a big pair and doesn't want someone sucking out on him. It will also be hard to call because medium pairs will know there is no IO and there's no flop they'll love unless they hit a set.
Overbetting because you dont want a call is a mistake. You effectively define your hand. When people do this, I insta-call with position because I know they don't want a call or even reraise with air. Most of the flops will look scary to them, so its easy to push them off the hand.

$50 is fine, 60 (pot sized bet) is also good.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
The names were made up,
I made a bad read.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
His probable range is QQ/KK/AA/AK with a leaning toward QQ/AK.

He probably thinks I have KK or AA.

I decided on a bet of $65. I'm not sure I can justify this, it just felt right. $80-90 is probably more believable.

I'm folding to a push (yeah, dump half my stack and fold). Horrible?
Flop bet is bad if he only continues with hands that beat you. Better to check and let him [x] put you on AK.

I'm going with fallsview on this... I don't think he has only QQ+, AK and prefer b/c.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 03:26 PM
I'm going with Fallsview and Kurt on this.

I had a similar hand last night with JJ on a Q high uncoordinated flop. I had faith in my hand and bet, one fold and one call. Safe turn, check check. An ace came on the river and he bet out. This happens a lot where I play so I raised. He calls and mucks after seeing my hand. It seems like it makes no sense on the surface.

I agree that his range is so wide here, you're almost certainly crushing him. A flop check seems to me the only way to really get him to continue giving you his chips in this hand. He will more likely than not bet the turn card for you.

A play that sometimes works against thinking players is betting like 2/3 of your stack. They won't believe you and put you AI where normally they wouldn't call an AI bet.

Don't be so afraid to play jacks.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingnite
Overbetting because you dont want a call is a mistake. You effectively define your hand. When people do this, I insta-call with position because I know they don't want a call or even reraise with air. Most of the flops will look scary to them, so its easy to push them off the hand.

$50 is fine, 60 (pot sized bet) is also good.
It depends on how you play it post flop, whether the 1/2 player is paying any attention, etc. Just because I don't want a call doesn't mean I'm going to melt because there is a call. What I don't want to do is play JJ oop with a big pot with two villains. If I get two folds, happy. If I get 1 fold, I'm OK and repping a big hand.

A $50 bet will get called by two players way too often.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-04-2010 , 06:17 PM
Unless your opponents have QQ, KK or AA you want them to call you. Unfortunately for you, if they have QQ or KK or AA, they will be calling you. Since you have a big hand you want to be repping that you do not have one, but that is pretty much irrelevant anyway. When your opponent knows what you have they can play perfectly against you - this is why 'defining your hand' for your opponent is a bad idea. Which isn't to say that you shouldn't play very straight forward, but just that you should be aware of the purpose of what you are doing.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-05-2010 , 08:01 AM
When someone pops it to $50 preflop and starts pushing more in, they're going to town. They almost always have KK or AA. Very rare to see otherwise at this level.

He should expect almost no fold equity and have the goods if he's pushing. That was my gut feel anyway.

I'm still wrong to think of folding. It looks like an easy call if he would push (or call down with) AK.

Stove says I have 40% against QQ+,AK. My last call would be $115 (into $360) for a $475 pot.

40% of the time we win $475 (475 * .4 = 190).
60% of the time we lose $115 (115 * .6 = -69).
EV = $121

Even if we claim money we already put in the pot (230 * .6 = -138) it's still +EV.

Did I mess that up?

I guess I can post the ending now.

Flop ($115) 3, 6, 8 rainbow
Hero bets $65, V1 thinks for a while and folds QQ face up

I laugh on the inside and try to look appropriately sad as I hand the dealer my cards.

Several people told him what an excellent fold he made.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-05-2010 , 01:36 PM
Wow, I would NEVER have expected that. What a bunch of ****ing nits you guys are lulz
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-05-2010 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinga
When someone pops it to $50 preflop and starts pushing more in, they're going to town. They almost always have KK or AA. Very rare to see otherwise at this level.

He should expect almost no fold equity and have the goods if he's pushing. That was my gut feel anyway.

I'm still wrong to think of folding. It looks like an easy call if he would push (or call down with) AK.

Stove says I have 40% against QQ+,AK. My last call would be $115 (into $360) for a $475 pot.

40% of the time we win $475 (475 * .4 = 190).
60% of the time we lose $115 (115 * .6 = -69).
EV = $121

Even if we claim money we already put in the pot (230 * .6 = -138) it's still +EV.

Did I mess that up?

I guess I can post the ending now.

Flop ($115) 3, 6, 8 rainbow
Hero bets $65, V1 thinks for a while and folds QQ face up

I laugh on the inside and try to look appropriately sad as I hand the dealer my cards.

Several people told him what an excellent fold he made.
My goodness I love live play. So much information in one hand:

1) BTN is weak-tight and will set mine/fold big pairs in position.
2) The other players are also scared of 3-bets from OOP seats and think it's OK to flat the 3-bet and fold to a good flop.
3) Despite you winning pots with pf/flop aggression, the only hand people at the table remember is your AK and think you are a rock.
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-05-2010 , 10:08 PM
are you seriously asking how you should play JJ from the BB to a button raise and SB call

standard amount bro raise to 50 just about every time if they are sticky raise to 60 grabbing 15BB's pre flop is a huge win that's more than an hours worth of work

can we have some tough questions in this forum please?

oh wow 8 high flop..lol, def bet some amount and don't fold to aggression go broke on this flop if you have to it's a frickin button raise ffs

my god looks like you guys are showing down too much i like it when i rarely show a hand...try doing the same line with QJ suited or something then you get paid off a lot when you actually show up with a good overpair
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote
05-06-2010 , 06:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by unrealzeal
are you seriously asking how you should play JJ from the BB to a button raise and SB call
Yes. I risked my stack OOP against a dominated hand. Worth a check up. If I made mistakes in this hand they were big mistakes.

By some quirk of nature I survived and profited but I should have lost of bunch of cake on this hand.

Quote:
standard amount bro raise to 50 just about every time if they are sticky raise to 60 grabbing 15BB's pre flop is a huge win that's more than an hours worth of work
If you crawled in my head PF that's exactly what you heard.

Quote:
can we have some tough questions in this forum please?
No need for potshots. I think it generated some interesting discussion and certainly helped me think things through.

Quote:
oh wow 8 high flop..lol, def bet some amount and don't fold to aggression go broke on this flop if you have to it's a frickin button raise ffs
This is part of why I wanted to explore this hand, too. Aren't these lines about the same as saying push it all in pre-flop? That one hasn't worked out so well for me in the past.

As for the button raise, wide range thing, I agree to disagree with the crowd a little on that one. I put him on a much smaller range after he calls the re-raise. Obviously opponent specific but I felt strongly this guy would be dropping almost anything.

I didn't realize he was weak enough he wouldn't push back with the queens. Noted for the future...

Quote:
my god looks like you guys are showing down too much i like it when i rarely show a hand...try doing the same line with QJ suited or something then you get paid off a lot when you actually show up with a good overpair
I'm guessing he open folded to encourage me to flip my aces and make him feel good. I didn't oblige, I mucked unseen.

Or did you mean something else?
1/2: JJ in BB, probable steal from button Quote

      
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