MP($400) limps, CO calls, SB calls, hero($400) raises JJ to $15 in BB, MP calls, CO folds, SB calls.

flop($47): 762

SB checks, hero bets $30, MP make its $60 to go, SB folds, hero?




MP- mid 30's Indian descent, with glasses, slightly balding. seems passive preflop. he has cold called a pfr with AA in position, then elected to backraise 4bet a $48 3b to $100. so action went like this: 1 preflop raiser, he flats with AA, short stack 3b jams for $48 more, preflop raiser flats, then he makes it $100 straight. then he elects to check/call a $22 shove on 682. i have also seen him not bet his flush draws. he also can't vbet thin, as he checks down 2nd pair multiway to the river.

hero- tight up to this point, pretty sure he is labeling me as an unknown, as he just sat down.

Doesn't seem like he is to out-of-line tricky, so I'm cool with raising preflop even though I'm going to end up OOP.

I could go either of two ways on the flop. Usually, I'm not looking to build a huge 3 street postflop pot with an overpair (flame away), so I'd be ok with checking to attempt to pot control and get two streets of value later. But, our hand is kinda vulnerable and the board is drawy, so I'd also be cool with a bet, planning to fold to a large bet.

Facing a minbet is kinda tricky. My guess is he's never bluffing here. My guess is that he also thinks TT-88 is the nuts here, and will probably also be betting the turn. How horrible would it be to consider a call/call/fold?

I so hate being OOP. Pretty much why I don't consider just checking out of my blind here to be lol horrible.

GweakpassiveG

say he is never raising FDs or combo draws here. given he has all the sets and sometimes over values 88-TT, is flop still a call? im not sure, but can we also include QQ-AA here? i've seen players do this a lot at live, but i'm not sure if this villan plays his overpairs like this also

No reason to assume he doesn't have an overpair higher than yours considering his previous play with AA. So yes, he could have 88-TT here, but he just as likely has QQ-AA and those pretty much cancel each other out equity-wise.

What we're left with is a range of 76, sets, and draws where he will have typically 12-15 outs -- so pretty far behind his range.

You are going to fold the winner some of the time, but to me it is not worth getting embroiled in a big pot OOP with no idea how to act on later streets.

You could reraise to $175 and fold to a re reraise. If he's tight he may lay down QQ and you'll know if you're behind if he raises here. Or you can call and eval turn. I rarely if ever check JJ in BB pre. I'd put him on 88-1010 but could have flatted premo pair with ur description.

Calling has a distinct downside which is that you are OOP and a check will look scared and induce another bet by a wider range. If you lead out it'll have to be ~$120-150 so I say either raise or fold on flop.

The reraise on flop screams AA/KK which is stronger than a call then leading the turn and cost about the same.

This answer will depend on how often villain will be limping as opposed to raising preflop with 88-TT in this spot. I would imagine he would raise a fair amount of the time, so taking that into account plus the fact that villain will not always raise with 88-TT postflop means that we can severely decrease the amount of 88-TT combos compared to sets. Not to mention villains raise is never intended to get a fold without some sort of read. I think b/f otf is probably the best play given your description of villain. Villain calls with draws/worse hands and raises better. Until villain shows you otherwise I would probably fold my JJ and go walk it off lol

Worst advise ever.

Villain has 77/66/22 way more times than he has QQ+. Also villain played his AA perfectly that hand.


This hand, I'd put his range at sets, 2pair, and maybe stuff like Ah2h,5h4h,5h3h,8h5h,9h8h,Th9h,Th8h and maybe 88-TT (maybe some small amount of QQ+). I would usually ask if any of jacks is hearts, but not sure that matters too much.

Board: 7h 6h 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.181% 59.18% 00.00% 26951 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 40.819% 40.82% 00.00% 18589 0.00 { AhAs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, TT-66, 33, Ah2h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h5h, 76s, 5h4h, 5h3h }

However if he never has the draws..

Board: 7h 6h 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.103% 63.10% 00.00% 22490 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 36.897% 36.90% 00.00% 13150 0.00 { AhAs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, TT-66, 33 }

But if he never has 88-TT but has a bunch of draws.

Board: 7h 6h 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.813% 39.81% 00.00% 10642 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 60.187% 60.19% 00.00% 16088 0.00 { AhAs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, 77-66, 33, Ah2h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 76s, 5h4h, 5h3h }


Meh.

It's probably close what you do either way depending on his level of aggression on later streets.

Grunch.

I am certainly not folding here but I am not sure I am willing to get it in either. The V is not really tricky or aggressive, especially since you have seen him not bet his draws. I think we are ahead of the majority of his range, which consists of hands like A7, 88, 99, TT, etc. I would assign that as the bulk of his range, with maybe a big combo draw like 45. Sets and two-pair are possible, but I think this type of player raises more to avoid taking a bad beat with those hands.

So if we are ahead of his range why not re-raise? I think that forces him to play perfect and fold out those hands. So therefore I would just call.

What is my plan for the turn? I am going to check/call any brick and check any over-cards (and expect the action to go check-check and lead into him on the river and get looked up lighter since he will assume I have a busted flush draw).

I think I will bet a heart on the turn though, but relatively small. Something like a third of the pot. I will fold if he raises.

I think, based on history, V is going to back-raise AA/KK/QQ here pf. I think we can safely exclude those from his range.

You can never say never in poker, but I am 95% sure he does not have those hands.

pre and post flop is fine. You want to bet this board and not give free cards to overs. Checking AA/KK is one thing on this board. Checking JJ is another. Any A, K, Q can come and ruin your day. That's about 1/4 of the time.

When he min raises it can be many things. A raise with a FD+ overs. A raise with a pair of 88s. Call and check turn. He will play basically face up.

if he bets small turn, call
if he bets large turn, fold
If he checks turn, VB the river

If you get to the river and he bets big you can fold
he will check down medium hands.
he doesn't bluff enough busted draws but he might try for a small bet, if so call.

The only real thing that favors a strong hand is that he did this in a 3 way pot. If he has a big hand like a set he will bet large on the turn to protect his draw. You have 2 outs, if you have the Jh, and that doesn't interfere with what's on the board.

Makeit10....I wasn't saying he has QQ nor is it his likeliest holding, but 2p here is unlikely and I doubt he NEVER bets draws. What I'm saying is that IF you don't fold here why would you flat? If you miss the set on the turn and lead out then you've put the same amount in and if you check then V almost always fires again. If hero had position it would be different.

All I'm saying is I disagree with a call OOP. A reraise has more FE but if hero thinks V has what he's repping then I don't disagree with a fold either. Please explain why you think a call is better than raise/fold? Again, OOP so do you check/fold turn? Lead out? Which invests the same as the reraise.

And if V smooth called AA earlier then why do you think 22,66,77 is "way" more likely than QQ/KK?

Min raise otf looks like he wants to freeze the action I call then lead the turn and fold to a raise.

If you are going to play JJ against this V I think it's absurd to fold this to a min flop raise. Just call and evaluate on the turn. He doesn't seem like the player who raises draws so 88-TT is possible and you did say he play AA tricky once so I guess QQ+ could be in his range? I think you should call the raise and play from there

When you get minraised by a TP, unimaginative player on a low flop it is a set pretty much always.

There's only one exception to this rule


Since we are both fairly deep, i will call the minraise and hope to stack him when i hit my set... also a heart might get me a free card (which is esp nice if we have Jh)

if by "many" you mean "three" youre right. He could have a set of sixes, a set of sevens or a set of deuces.

Neither of these are consistent with the V as described.

RAWR

He is already playing face up, btw

If he keeps it super cheap, its not unreasonable to stick around on the turn. But it has to be super cheap. And we're doing it becaus eof implied odds, not because we think we're good.

Not against hands that beat us... unless v. is exceptionally nitty for a 1/2 player, we are usually not getting rid of him no matter how much we bet when he has an OP.


Yeah, when you call here you're check folding the turn.


Because the V described isn't going to play an OP like this on the flop. He's going to check call with it and give the LAG enough rope to hang himself.

this depends on what you mean by the nuts. He might be willing to stack with 88-99-TT if overs don't come out but this type of player is not going to bet it.

OP already has two examples of of v. taking c/c lines with an overpair+

It's only advisable to call the min raise for implied hitting set over set and stacking him odds if you have like a thousand behind or something.

did you just make that # up?... because you are incorrect.

we are about 22-1 to hit our set ott.

we are calling 30 to win the 137 in the pot plus the 325 that remains in his stack.... so we are getting approximately 15-1, which doesnt quite get us there.

But there are occassions where we will get to see an additional card for free... like when a flush card comes or when v tries for another check raise and we check behind. This is going to happen frequently enough to make the call worthwhile, IMO.

If we assume we will never get the turn for free, we would need about 530 deep.

Then i would say theres a decent chance V is an "opposite" player if he's slow played all the strong hands he's shown down. People raise to put you to the test all the time and we can't just assume they have a set or AA/KK. Calling to c/f the turn is maybe ok if we think he may check behind but if hero flats then checks V is betting more than checking here.

Im def flatting IP but OOP with intention to c/f turn you may as well just fold the flop! Youre basically saying you think you are beat so why pay to draw to a 2 outer? Just fold flop if hero feels he's beat. And suppose he does check behind, you are still OOP on the river which prob didnt hit your 2 outer so do we c/f river too? Do we really expect V to check turn and river after we check both?

Its not an easy spot and folding flop could be best but again, i just cant see calling OOP with intention to just give up if we dont hit a J.

Yes I was exaggerating. Still, we don't have odds to bink, especially if one of our two jacks in the deck is one that puts a 3rd to a flush on board as it should kill our action and thus our implied odds drastically. Also, we have to be sure that if we hit our jack we are taking V's full stack 100% of the time.

would it be ok to just fold the flop, if im not going to call down? im really playing a check/guessing game here right?

I'd say his range is what u stated above (at the widest). Call flop since raise is so small and reevaluate. U will have to fold to further aggression even if a blank comes. I expect him to slow down with 88-1010 and maybe even qq-aa especially if a blank comes. At this point I'm just trying to get to showdown cheaply

if his range is sets only, then flop is a clear fold. Calling to hit a set is lolbad as u need close to 20:1 in implied odds to hit (around 5% to turn a set) unless u also plan to bluff a heart turn or river especially since he is bombing blank turn with a set

No I think folding is too weak tight until u see more edvidence of villain playing ops and draws passively. Also there is a huge difference between flat calling a raise with qq+ and limp calling with qq+ pre. I just don't think he has qq+ here very often if at all. We call cause we expect villain to play extremely straightforward on turn even if a blank comes (meaning he bets small or check with hands like 88-1010 or draws and bombs turn with sets and the occasional qq+) so that we can fold. Obviously if he threw in a much bigger raise on flop Id snap fold tho