Playing 1/2, 9-handed at the Venetian around 1PM.
BB ($300) / Only serious player at the table. Head phones in, not talking, seems like a reg. Been at the table for less than 30 minutes.
Hero in the CO ($300) / Been at the table for around 3 hours. Talkative and having a good time. Table views hero closer to TAG than LAG but not too tight.

Hero opens CO to $10 with TT, BB calls.

$21 Flop [4 2 8]
BB checks, Hero cbets $15, BB calls $15.

$51 Turn [K]
BB leads $30, Hero?

What are your thoughts on sizing and turn decision. Is this common to see a donk-lead on the turn like this? Thanks!

In this specific situation when you hold one flush card the T on that board on the turn 4 2 8 K and even if you give villain 22+, A2s+ and all Broadways suited and unsuited, the probability of villain to have made a flush is 4.5%. He may be now on a flush draw 28% of the time. Of course he may have a King for TP that beats your TT but that is a different story. He may be donking-in to protect or he's got a draw to King high flush beside his TP. I'm not focusing on those possibilities. I just pinpoint the flush situations. Don't assume and make sucker's mistakes of suspecting villain's got the flush when the 3rd flush-card comes down or he's got a FD with a two tone flop. On a two tone flop he's got a FD only 10.5% of the time exactly like any pocket pair flopping a Set. Always remember that.

I know the precise percentages offered by every pot at any street of the deal. I can tell what cards are most likely out there around the table, how many are still in the deck, how many help my hand, and the odds of making my goddamned hand. I know all of this with supreme accuracy, through card sense innate ability.

I can go either way here: call or fold. I'd need to be at the table to make my decision, but sitting here, I really want to call/evaluate river. Might just call him down.

Have you seen any of his hands? Have you been stationy at all or have you folded to some pressure?

So you don't have enough experience with this player to really have a solid read. I often feel like "head phone in, not talking" usually means someone who doesn't know much about poker beyond what they see on TV.

If villain were holding 8x, I would have expected a lead or c/r on the flop. Given that the K game on the turn, all of his Kx hands are out of his range. What I think is most likely here is a bare 8 that saw the K come on the turn, and is hoping that a bet will win this hand uncontested, because he doesn't want to get to showdown, not because he's trying to get value.

The two options as I see them are calling here, hoping to win unimproved or to spike a , or raising for value and the possibility of a cheap showdown when you don't improve.

In option 1, you call 30, and will probably have to call 60-75 on the river. There are no cards that can come where you are going to feel comfortable playing for stacks. This option will cost you between $90 and $105 to get to showdown.

In option 2, you raise to $75. If V pushes, you safely lay down. If he folds, great, and if he calls, you're looking at a $200 pot on the river, and a SPR of 1. Again, there aren't any cards that will come where you will feel comfortable playing for your stack, but if V calls, then he'll almost certainly check to you on the river, you can check behind, and get to a showdown for $75 instead of $90.

I would raise to $75 on the turn and reevaluate from there.

Yeah sometimes in these spots I just assume V has the flush and make a tight fold. Thanks for the statistics.


Haven't seen any of his hands and I don't think I've been stationy. If anything I might be easy to push off of a hand but I am not stationy.

By 'head phones in, not talking' I mean he probably wasn't in Vegas for a bachelor party. He seemed like he did this daily and he was starting his normal day by going to the Venetian and grinding hours. He was also playing with his chips in a manner that I figured he played often.
Because I think he would be capable of bluffing or making this play without a flush or a King and could possibly shut down on the river if his mini-bluff didn't work. I decide to peel one and take a river in position.
I think I used to fold here way too often and forget about the hand but I think I should be calling here more often that I used to.

Anyway, OOTH

$51 Turn [K]
BB leads $30, Hero calls $30.

$111 River [3h]
BB checks, Hero?

If you've been easier to push off a hand than to call, I definitely call turn.

Just check back river. I don't think he's folding a heart that beats you, and I doubt he's calling with a hand you beat. He might fold a Jh, but it's risky. Plus, you have to fold to a raise.

Yeah exactly what I thought in hand and checked back pretty quickly.
V showed 77 and Hero took it down.

I didnt think about it at the time but I'm pretty sure I would have folded if V would have bombed something like $80 on the river.
I just don't know how often players decide to lead out on when the flush comes in on the turn and then check it down on the river and/or continue to fire on the river as a bluff...

Does anyone see plays like this from V very often or is this uncommon?

Floating the flop to rep a hand on the turn is pretty common in the games I play, especially against players who have shown the ability to fold. With your play, he has to put you on a decent heart, so I'm not surprised he checked river.

Nice hand.

I see it all the time. I was slightly off on my read, but when I said

I often see people bet when they expect that their hand is beat. He probably put you on AK or AQ, and didn't want to check and give you the opportunity to push him off the best hand. So he bets, hoping that you'll lay down a worse hand, and is trying to make up for a misplayed flop.

But shouldn't I have called his flop lead without the T. Say I have TT I think I should be calling as well, no?

If everyone's cards were face up you would raise with TT. But they aren't face up, and V didn't lead, but if he did, I would still probably raise because (as I think was his reasoning here) a lot of players will see the most likely range for a late position PFR as AJ+, and you would have completely missed this flop, so he expects his mid-PP to be good here most of the time.

I don't see how raising here can be good. We raise, V folds all hands that we beat and calls with all hands that beat us (flushes and Kings).

Yes, I would call w/o the Th, but it helps to have the Th

(And he would/should still put you on a heart on the river.)

For sure, just wanted to make sure.

Thanks for the replies guys. It's appreciated!

I think we're talking about two different scenarios. In one, the hand as played, he x/c the flop then leads the turn. I advocated a raise because, as was my initial read, he has neither a K or a flush, saw a scare card, and hopes to win the hand uncontested. In that case, you would raise the turn for value.

If he had lead out on the flop, I would also expect you to have the best hand, because V would still put you on missed overs, and would raise the flop for value.

Here you have it on a silver plate because I read you to be a smart "player". Yes, I think you are a player. I like that very much.

Take a betting line that will narrow villains range to being weak, meaning make bets that a villain would raise if he is strong. Construct a bet size which will not commit the villain in his mind along the way. Make a final bluff bet large enough to make it hurt and not let villain to justify pot odds for a call.

Anyway, it takes years upon many more years, to play like I explain to my readers. Simply by playing around with forums and reading books 95% of the the people will never become players of this game and even the remaining 5% will barely manage not losing. Live suckers depend on books for poker strategy and the current books that people buy in stores simply in most part don't give out an adequate strategy. To become a specialist hustler winning player you got to get your smarts through the fence, so to speak, from other hustles, else you got no chance.

For example: The Set mining or farming (I like to call it farming because I got horses .. haha) subject is so important and so vast that honestly it takes at least 100 full pages of regular book to be explained properly. Just take any book out there and see what they tell people to do with 44 or any pair they plan to set farm. One single goddamned little page in the best books at the most. So, most people are sukers when comes to what to do and how to do it with a pocket pair. What they mostly remember is this FoS on the flop advise: "No Set no Bet" .....,what a bunch of horse hooey ..,