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1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? 1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in?

03-05-2018 , 12:16 PM
V1 ~Ł100 total dead money calls any non-crazy amount preflop (up to 10X) with his whole range (50+% vpip) will call flop with pretty much any two, certainly any draw but also two high cards eg AJ on K85r never seen him raise ever will call every street with the nuts.

V2 ~Ł250 Thinking player to an extent probably plays a bit too tight preflop most of the time (won't 3 bet, will limp big hands) but I've seen him go nuts with 48o type hands because "he was bored" outside of those situations aggression is generally a "strong" holding but not necessarily the nuts.

Hero ~Ł400 decent perhaps a bit too tight pre but probably not noticeably so. Reasonably early in the current game doubt V's have much of a read on me not shown down any hands yet today.

1/2

V1 limps utg+1
V2 limps utg+2
Hero OTB with AT raises to 15

I want to iso V1 and know he's totally inelastic around bet sizing maybe I should have raised more but even he will fold to a crazy amount

V1 calls
V2 calls

Flop

Q K 5

V1 Check
V2 Check
Hero Bets 35
V1 Calls
V2 raise to 80
Hero?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:22 PM
I'm torn between calling to keep V1 in the pot and shoving to get all of V2's money in now.

I'm probably shoving.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:29 PM
Insert all money into pot
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:32 PM
You've got 44% equity vs KQ and 33% vs 55. He most likely has one of those hands. Hes not folding either one if you shove all in so you cant add any FE.

Shoving a hand like this is a lot more powerful when the other guy is the preflop raiser because you can get him to fold AK or even AA at times. In this case without any FE, I would much rather call and keep the drooler in.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:45 PM
I shove. V1 started the hand with $100, so your calling and shoving are basically the same to him.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:50 PM
additional Qs

If you're shoving what are to hoping to fold out/get called by?

If you're flatting what is your plan on a brick turn
if checked to?
if bet into by V2?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-05-2018 , 12:57 PM
Funny. I'm not really trying to fold anything. I want them to call. This is a bit of a gamble to me and for just over 100bb, I'm fine making it. If V2 folds, it is fine, though, because I won with A high (well, depending on what happens vs. V1).

I am never flatting unless we think we are going to get paid if we hit, which should be unlikely given read on V2. V1 can call or fold -- not worried about him, but I'm fine if he calls and puts in the extra $$$.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 06:45 AM
Results V1 had QQ and V2 had AK, I shoved without really thinking, both called and I bricked. Thinking about it I'm not sure V2 is ever really raise folding in that spot and I think AK is the bottom of his range and we are behind it so what does a shove really accomplish? I guess maybe a shove isn't great but it's better than a call or a fold?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 09:20 AM
So both players limp-called a raise with premium hands? Wow, talk about loose passive.

A shove gets money in the pot before any scare cards get there, like a club, or any other broadway card. You played it right, it just didn't work out this hand.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koko the munkey
So both players limp-called a raise with premium hands? Wow, talk about loose passive.

A shove gets money in the pot before any scare cards get there, like a club, or any other broadway card. You played it right, it just didn't work out this hand.
This is backwards. The only times you want to shove before scare cards get there is when you are way ahead and wont get paid off if you dont get money in before the scare card comes.... or you have a lot of FE and can win the pot without a made hand. This isnt that.

We dont have a made hand and we have zero FE so we should be fine with the "scare card" coming because that's the only card that makes us win. A flop call is better in this spot.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 09:48 AM
With these stack sizes, I think a fold is much better than a call on the flop. We happened to come up against the very highest range they could have.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 09:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
With these stack sizes, I think a fold is much better than a call on the flop. We happened to come up against the very highest range they could have.
What did you think V2 had with that flop action? I said KQ/55. He had QQ which was even stronger but really no difference in how we need to play the hand.

Not knowing what V1 will do, we need to call $45. The pot is $195. We need 19% equity to call, disregarding any additional money we may make if we hit the turn. We have 25% equity vs QQ/55/KQ.

Folding the flop isnt terrible, but calling is better. Shoving is the worst option if you know you have zero FE although its still really not that bad but you really need V1 to come along since hes basically drawing dead most times.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 10:15 AM
V1 had QQ and $100, so who cares? We are never folding vs. him, and I highly doubt he's putting in half his stack on the flop to fold, no matter what he has, so he's definitely coming along.

V2 had AK. We really aren't doing that bad, actually, and for $250 in a 1/2 game with any fold equity -- and we could easily have FE -- shoving the flop is fine and better than calling. We need to see both cards, we have to fold a blank turn, and do you really think V2 is paying us off if a club comes?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
V1 had QQ and $100, so who cares? We are never folding vs. him, and I highly doubt he's putting in half his stack on the flop to fold, no matter what he has, so he's definitely coming along.

V2 had AK. We really aren't doing that bad, actually, and for $250 in a 1/2 game with any fold equity -- and we could easily have FE -- shoving the flop is fine and better than calling. We need to see both cards, we have to fold a blank turn, and do you really think V2 is paying us off if a club comes?
Shoving the flop in a spot like this is never going to be very bad. That's not what Im saying. Im saying that calling is better and if you do that math, you'll see that I'm right. You have equity to call even if only seeing one card.

If you have some FE (which I highly doubt after he check raises to $80) then shoving is better.

This is actually kind of funny since I always used to be the one getting flamed for not using math very much when I play. And, Yes, depending on what V2 has, he will have to pay off a club most of the time on the turn because of pot size. He will always pay off a straight.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 10:56 AM
Wow, I'm never paying of a club here, but I'd never play AK the way V2 did, but pretty hard for him to fold with his stack size.

So, V1 we have to assume is never putting $50 in the pot and folding for his last $50, no matter what he has. He's shoving. There will be ~$330 in the pot on the turn. V2 will have $135 left. Are we folding a blank? Seems pretty gross. If we aren't folding turn, why not just shove the flop?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 11:14 AM
It's called a semi bluff for a reason. Our equity comes from fold equity and when we get called but make our draw. If you take away fold equity, there's no bluff part to it.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Wow, I'm never paying of a club here, but I'd never play AK the way V2 did, but pretty hard for him to fold with his stack size.

So, V1 we have to assume is never putting $50 in the pot and folding for his last $50, no matter what he has. He's shoving. There will be ~$330 in the pot on the turn. V2 will have $135 left. Are we folding a blank? Seems pretty gross. If we aren't folding turn, why not just shove the flop?
V1 started the hand with $100.

After V2 raises the flop and we call, V1 will shove. The betting wont be reopened so We will both call making the pot $300. Not $330.

V2 will have $150 left. If the turn bricks (as it did), hes probably going to shove. We will need 25% equity to call. We have 27% equity vs AK so we can still call or fold. EV is about the same.

If the turn had been a J we are winning a monster pot.

If the turn had been a club, hes in a sticky situation. Hes in a spot to make a really bad mistake by check/calling our shove if we have a flush and in a spot to make a really bad mistake if he check/folds and he had the best hand. Most people call too much, especially when the pot is this big. My guess is he calls...or maybe he shoves a club anyway and hopes we have something like AcTx. People do stupid things when the pot gets this big.

The whole point is that we dont have to shove the flop based on this flop action. If we had called a raise with this same hand, we should be shoving over a Cbet from the preflop raiser because we will have max FE. When there we Cbet, theres a call and then theres a check raise, we have close to zero FE and us shoving isnt mandatory. We can call or fold depending on the math.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
V1 started the hand with $100.

After V2 raises the flop and we call, V1 will shove. The betting wont be reopened so We will both call making the pot $300. Not $330.

V2 will have $150 left. If the turn bricks (as it did), hes probably going to shove. We will need 25% equity to call. We have 27% equity vs AK so we can still call or fold. EV is about the same.

If the turn had been a J we are winning a monster pot.

If the turn had been a club, hes in a sticky situation. Hes in a spot to make a really bad mistake by check/calling our shove if we have a flush and in a spot to make a really bad mistake if he check/folds and he had the best hand. Most people call too much, especially when the pot is this big. My guess is he calls...or maybe he shoves a club anyway and hopes we have something like AcTx. People do stupid things when the pot gets this big.

The whole point is that we dont have to shove the flop based on this flop action. If we had called a raise with this same hand, we should be shoving over a Cbet from the preflop raiser because we will have max FE. When there we Cbet, theres a call and then theres a check raise, we have close to zero FE and us shoving isnt mandatory. We can call or fold depending on the math.
We don't know V2 has AK. Heck, you put him on KQ or 55. How much EV do we have then? My question is, are you calling the last $150 on a blank turn?

Yes, a J we win a monster pot -- that's four outs, maybe three if he folds to a club. If he does fold to a club, is calling the flop still correct?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 12:52 PM
Don’t really get your point Mike. If we’re stacking off on any turn, why let them potentially fold on a club and give up our potential FE?
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 01:39 PM
And, I will reiterate, I try to give my advice based on what I'd do at the table with the information I have and the time I have to do very quick calculations. In this case, I'd shove almost every time and I would never flat.

I see little point in giving advice based on calculations I've done from my computer or using some type of tool that is not available at the table -- unless someone asks for it.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 02:16 PM
Seems like a trivial shove, you have a ton of equity but no showdown value. Flatting massively decreases our equity on a blank turn
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
Don’t really get your point Mike. If we’re stacking off on any turn, why let them potentially fold on a club and give up our potential FE?
I didnt say I was stacking off on any turn.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
We don't know V2 has AK. Heck, you put him on KQ or 55. How much EV do we have then? My question is, are you calling the last $150 on a blank turn?

Yes, a J we win a monster pot -- that's four outs, maybe three if he folds to a club. If he does fold to a club, is calling the flop still correct?
On the turn
We have 27% equity vs AK
We have 27% equity vs KQ
We have 23% equity vs 55

So basically we have about 25% equity on the turn vs his range. We need 25% equity to call based on my earlier calculations and flop action.

So if we miss the turn, we can call or fold when he shoves. The EV is neutral.
IMO the only reason to call at that point is if there are deep stacked fish at the table and you want to call and try to get deep with them. I would normally just fold because I dont take neutral EV gambles with players when I have an edge over them.

Very little of my game is math based to the extent of these posts of mine in this thread, but I have a pretty good idea in the back of my head during the hand what the approx EV is vs certain hands. I play more by feel and reads. My read in this hand was that neither of the 2 villains was folding if OP shoved the flop. If you look at the flop and see 4 to a straight flush and just shove your chips in without regards to other factors, youre doing it wrong.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thetruewheel
Seems like a trivial shove, you have a ton of equity but no showdown value. Flatting massively decreases our equity on a blank turn
You dont understand this concept. You should reread what I wrote, check the math and then reconsider your statement.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 08:41 PM
So villain just needs the occasional J9cc, 65cc, and maybe JT/98cc spazz and we should happily put it in on the flop
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote

      
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