Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
On the turn
We have 27% equity vs AK
We have 27% equity vs KQ
We have 23% equity vs 55
So basically we have about 25% equity on the turn vs his range. We need 25% equity to call based on my earlier calculations and flop action.
So if we miss the turn, we can call or fold when he shoves. The EV is neutral.
IMO the only reason to call at that point is if there are deep stacked fish at the table and you want to call and try to get deep with them. I would normally just fold because I dont take neutral EV gambles with players when I have an edge over them.
Very little of my game is math based to the extent of these posts of mine in this thread, but I have a pretty good idea in the back of my head during the hand what the approx EV is vs certain hands. I play more by feel and reads. My read in this hand was that neither of the 2 villains was folding if OP shoved the flop. If you look at the flop and see 4 to a straight flush and just shove your chips in without regards to other factors, youre doing it wrong.
The problem with your premise is that you're making a -EV call on the flop to get to the neutral EV turn decision. That's not the formula for winning poker. It's like people buying a new car to get 15% better gas mileage and they only drive 8,000 miles per year.
You don't have the equity to call the bet size on the flop with implied odds due to the stack remaining and the fact that you're not guaranteed to get what's remaining depending on what lands. That the turn decision is a wash because he only has $150 left doesn't negate how you got there in the first place.
The only way to guarantee you actually realize your equity on the flop is by getting it all in and seeing two cards for all the chips. You're never guaranteed to get his remaining $150 on the turn otherwise.
This isn't a tournament where you can consider the value of survival. V2 can show you a set face-up on the flop and a shove is still around EV neutral and that's the best position you're ever going to be against that hand here. When you add in AK/KQ/KJ/KT and other club combos to his range you're +EV on a flop shove.
Last edited by HawkesDave; 03-06-2018 at 09:22 PM.