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1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? 1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in?

03-06-2018 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
On the turn
We have 27% equity vs AK
We have 27% equity vs KQ
We have 23% equity vs 55

So basically we have about 25% equity on the turn vs his range. We need 25% equity to call based on my earlier calculations and flop action.

So if we miss the turn, we can call or fold when he shoves. The EV is neutral.
IMO the only reason to call at that point is if there are deep stacked fish at the table and you want to call and try to get deep with them. I would normally just fold because I dont take neutral EV gambles with players when I have an edge over them.

Very little of my game is math based to the extent of these posts of mine in this thread, but I have a pretty good idea in the back of my head during the hand what the approx EV is vs certain hands. I play more by feel and reads. My read in this hand was that neither of the 2 villains was folding if OP shoved the flop. If you look at the flop and see 4 to a straight flush and just shove your chips in without regards to other factors, youre doing it wrong.
The problem with your premise is that you're making a -EV call on the flop to get to the neutral EV turn decision. That's not the formula for winning poker. It's like people buying a new car to get 15% better gas mileage and they only drive 8,000 miles per year.

You don't have the equity to call the bet size on the flop with implied odds due to the stack remaining and the fact that you're not guaranteed to get what's remaining depending on what lands. That the turn decision is a wash because he only has $150 left doesn't negate how you got there in the first place.

The only way to guarantee you actually realize your equity on the flop is by getting it all in and seeing two cards for all the chips. You're never guaranteed to get his remaining $150 on the turn otherwise.

This isn't a tournament where you can consider the value of survival. V2 can show you a set face-up on the flop and a shove is still around EV neutral and that's the best position you're ever going to be against that hand here. When you add in AK/KQ/KJ/KT and other club combos to his range you're +EV on a flop shove.

Last edited by HawkesDave; 03-06-2018 at 09:22 PM.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
The problem with your premise is that you're making a -EV call on the flop to get to the neutral EV turn decision. That's not the formula for winning poker. It's like people buying a new car to get 15% better gas mileage and they only drive 8,000 miles per year.

You don't have the equity to call the bet size on the flop with implied odds due to the stack remaining and the fact that you're not guaranteed to get what's remaining depending on what lands. That the turn decision is a wash because he only has $150 left doesn't negate how you got there in the first place.

The only way to guarantee you actually realize your equity on the flop is by getting it all in and seeing two cards for all the chips. You're never guaranteed to get his remaining $150 on the turn otherwise.

This isn't a tournament where you can consider the value of survival. V2 can show you a set face-up on the flop and a shove is still around EV neutral and that's the best position you're ever going to be against that hand here. When you add in AK/KQ/KJ/KT and other club combos to his range you're +EV on a flop shove.
Unless my math is horribly wrong, we have direct odds to call the flop raise. Im not even talking about the added implied odds. Show me where the flop call is -EV.

Villain check raised to $80. We have to call $45 more and there is already $195 in the pot. We need 19% equity to make that call if we completely disregard implied odds. We have about 25% equity vs KQ/AK/55/QQ with one card to come (the turn).
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 10:07 PM
Fair enough, it's +EV, you're right.

In most of these situations you're not getting those types of odds. In those situations you have to shove to realize your equity. This one is a bit different though. I was looking at your statement in a vacuum and applying it more widely. I think this is a minority exception where calling is ok too. I don't know if it's better than shoving per se, but definitely lower variance for those who prefer that play style.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-06-2018 , 11:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Unless my math is horribly wrong, we have direct odds to call the flop raise. Im not even talking about the added implied odds. Show me where the flop call is -EV.

Villain check raised to $80. We have to call $45 more and there is already $195 in the pot. We need 19% equity to make that call if we completely disregard implied odds. We have about 25% equity vs KQ/AK/55/QQ with one card to come (the turn).
A lot of the time we're going to have to put in $65 on the flop. The other villain is pot committed with a lot of hands and will likely shove over the top if we just call. Even if we assume we have to put in $65 100% and never make any money on the turn, it's a +EV call against their ranges, though. There is some merit to shoving if villain will play well against our hand when we call, but I doubt he can get away from KQ on club/jack turns. Keep in mind that we don't really have good implied odds against 55, though.
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote
03-07-2018 , 11:01 AM
I am just amazed that people think V will gii on a club turn w/o maybe top set? Would you?

(Well, of course 2+2ers are way too good to gii on a club turn I will admit most 2+2ers wouldn't play AK this way, so maybe it's moot.)
1/2 gutshot straight flush get it in? Quote

      
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