V in the hand is a MAWG who just took a rough beat and doubled up a fish an orbit ago.. There was a blind raise to $6, 5 calls, V made it $46 in BB with TT, only the blind-raiser (read fish) called (with Q6dd).. Flop was AT5dd and V checked to the fish who shoved $130 and V insta-called, only to see another diamond fall on an unpaired river.

V is now sitting on $180, the table is very passive/shallow/bad.

Hero has an ultra

OTTH:

5-6 limps incl V in CO, action checked by Hero in BB with JT

At this moment, I'm praying not to flop a TP to avoid another OOP dilemma but look what happens.

Flop ($15): K 8 5
Hero bets $15 (murmuring OMG to myself), V calls

Turn ($45): T
Hero bets $40, V starts picking and banging his chips onto other chips (the chip sound you know) like he's unhappy and then makes the call reluctantly

River ($125): 9
Hero bets $125 putting V all-in, V calls and tables A3

I know this is a cooler, but could you have gotten away OTR because of V's hollywood OTT? I know the stacks are shallow but bet/fold $45 maybe? Or maybe even c/f given our image and his hollywood?

I don't think you could have got away from it. With all those limpers, there are too many other hands in his range that you beat.

Also, even with his hollywooding, he could have trips or AK with As.

Though, honestly, if you were going to call an all in on River why not just move in on the turn. Lots of value on the turn for a large part of his range. For instance if he has two pair or a set, another spade seems like it would either have you beat, or kill the action. Make him pay.

Shoving the turn would be terrible given the pot size.

As for the OP's question, sure live tells can narrow down a villain's range significantly, perhaps to the point of making a seemingly impossible fold. However, it's pretty difficult for us to ascertain this tell on an internet forum. It seems that even if you knew he was hollywooding that he could have worse flushes. After potting it on flop and turn it's hard to imagine check/folding this river but sure it's possible. You better have a damn good read though.

Grunch

No.

No. Folding is terrible.

Often times when a player acts differently than he usually does, it is an indication of strength. I would have laughed at the guy & folded.

Nice job on bet sizing so you can GII on the river with a PSB.

I don´t think you can fold here unless you have a TON of history with V. Even then, guy can have flopped the 8 high flush and still be pretty excited.

This is bad. You keep this stuff to yourself Brah. No tapping on the tank.

If all of the opponents were playing ATC, there's like a 15% chance you're against another flush. If they are playing any two suited but not playing offsuit junk, the odds are even higher. When you get action on the flop and turn the odds start to get really high. The Hollywooding gets you comfortably in the neighborhood of 100%.

If he played any two suited and would Hollywood all made flushes, it would be $75 error to fold the river. If his preflop suited range was more like ax,kx,74+,53+,43+, and he would Hollywood all made flushes it would be a $25 error to fold the river.

If he only Hollywood's the nutz, it would a $125 win to fold the river.

You just need to know what range V perceives as the virtual nuts. ez game

Interestingly, if he reads Super System first, he will see where Doyle wrote "never go broke in a limped pot."

I'd love to know his plan if he doesn't flop the set or overpair. I never know for sure because when they airball and do something ridiculous postflop that leads to them folding, they never table it.

Not sure what you are getting at. This is a pretty standard squeeze. The pfr was blind and nobody had anything worth raising him. I'd squeeze here with some pretty marginal holdings. You can take it down pre or with a flop c bet so often. No squeezing a premium holding like TT is extremely nitty and weak. I like his sizing too.

Never folding here. WP but unlucky

That's like saying you are going to fold mid set on best run out and villain has top set because he made a speech.

If that'll be the case a lot, why waste your premiums on it? You said you do it with all premiums and some marginal hands. Why not do the opposite and do it with all rags and some marginal hands?

Before I go and explain myself I would like an explanation for this post. I spent some time in that other thread re: implied odds on the turn with a flush draw and you just let it die without responding. So I'm not falling for your red herring here ..just yet anyway.

I wasn't saying anything about strategy with that first post. I see a lot of guys 3b out of the blinds with AK/AQ/88-JJ and then flop exactly what they need to keep betting. And I always wonder if they airballed are they c-betting?, double barreling?, c/f'ing? I know they're not considering what they'll do if they miss but it would be entertaining to see them come up with that plan on the spot. It'd be like watching a Marlins game the past few years, Mike Redmond would think about what to do, somehow come up with the worst thing possible every time, and then get mad.



But getting into strategy, a few people tell me the hands they 3-bet and then tell me "the sizing needs to be big enough so that V can fold pre, and if he doesn't fold pre I expect him to fold otf a lot." 3-betting big pairs and AK/AQ is counter intuitive to that. If you want to win without SD and expect to win without SD, make these plays with rags, rags don't need SD to win. Using premium hands to 3-bet big pre and get a fold is a waste of a premium hand, premium hands can win at SD, that's the attribute they have that rags don't.



Who started that other thread?

You're right El but the other side of the coin is that you don't really want to go multiway even with a premium hand that too OOP so you can't be too upset about just stealing all the dead money when they all fold and if they sometimes call, your range is still ahead of theirs and they'll c/f often too.

As hard as it is, I think we absolutely can and should c/f the river. This is where I find a lot of the value in live poker. This sort of behavior from this sort of villain is the nuts 99% of the time. It's one of the most reliable tells in live poker. He would not do this with a King high flush.

I hear what you are saying. A spot like 6 limpers+SB complete and you look down at a small or middle PP or AXs in the BB. Is the EV of squeezing higher than taking a flop and trying to flop a set or make the nut flush and win a huge pot? If we are playing deep maybe making it 5 bucks and playing a raised pot 8ways has the highest EV?

In the hand your commented on there was $39 out there. With TT I think we make the most by putting in a largish raise and either taking it down right there or we get a caller or two and play for a nice big against 1 or 2 opponents.

Concept #27 in NLHE Theory & Practice is exactly what we are talking about here and has a few examples.

chk call river > shove river >>>>>>>>>>> chk fold river

if you chk call you not only let him bluff his missed spades/whatever random crap he has, but you also aren't getting called by worse a lot except exactly a lower flush even vs the most idiotic villains, unless your image sucks.

also since you didn't give specific reads about villain other than he took a beat recently and the table is bad, i'm assuming he's bad, and bad villains will bet bad amounts with the nuts, so you might save money if he bets less than all in himself.

since he raised huge PF with TT you can also discount some of his AXss bc he would have raised PF with them.

I just don't think he called the PSB on turn with As. Plus LLSNL villains don't bluff the river. Wouldn't it be idiotic if we checked and he checked a flopped set behind which he'd otherwise sigh call? Same for smaller flushes.

Are you always check/calling non-nut flushes OOP after betting 2 streets?

with these stack sizes in limped pot vs reads u gave probably

Concept No. 27: When semi-bluffing before the flop, usually do it
those times you have one of the best hands that you’d otherwise fold.
However, when you are in the blinds in an unraised pot, you should
usually do it when you have one of your worst hands.

You are playing $5–$10 with $1,000 stacks. A middle position player opens for $30, and two players call. You are on the button. Your preflop strategy dictates that youusually reraise with your excellent hands (e.g., A♡K♣), call with many goodhands (e.g., 3♡3♢ or 9♠8♠), and fold the rest. But you occasionally also reraise as a bluff. When choosing the times you occasionally bluff, try to pick those times youhave a fairly good hand, but one that you’d usually fold. For instance, say you’d generally call with K♠T♠, but fold K♠7♠. The latter hand is a goodone to semi-bluff with. It’s much better than a truly terrible hand like J♣3♢:If you happen to get action on your reraise, you’re more likely to get lucky andactually make a good hand with K♠7♠. Since you’d normally fold both K♠7♠ and J♣3♢, you typically lose nothingby waiting for the better hand to make your randomizing bluffs.If you are in the blind in an unraised pot, however, things change significantly.For instance, say you are playing $5–$10 with $1,000 stacks. Five players limp to you in the big blind. Your preflop strategy dictates that you raise yourexcellent hands and check everything else.50 (These raises in multiway pots areusually large in size, and your opponents will infrequently flat-call them.) But, again, you occasionally also raise as a bluff. Now you are better off waiting for your truly terrible hands, J♣3♢ forexample, than choosing a hand like K♠7♠. If you check, you get to see the flopfor free, and with K♠7♠ you might well flop a strong hand or draw. You could also flop something with J♣3♢, but it’s much less likely. Since your raises in this situation are usually either reraised or (more often) folded to, you are wasting the value of decent hands when you make this balancing play. You should revert back to better hands for small reraises or when your opponents are more likely to just call.

Most of that is between what me and you were saying. This is saying to do it IP with the best hands you'd fold, oop with rags.

I wish they'd expand on the 3b'ing for value part, that's the part I don't like at least in a 200nl or 300nl game. You rarely see 3b pots go to SD, especially go to SD without an ai. 3b'ing either gets folds or puts a lot of players in a state where they'll see the flop and if they smash it they shove if they miss they fold, so you end up getting either just pf value or at best pf and flop value. They get scared too easily and are rarely deep enough to get 4 streets in a 3b pot. So instead of of 3b'ing pre and winning with a c-bet otf and winning $40, I prefer to overlimp or flat big hands from EP or the blinds and go for flop+turn+river value which will add up to way more than $40. You need to be willing to fold an overpair and be able to identify when to let it go, I've folded KK on 7-high flops before. Whether I win at SDor give it up early, I could have 3b pre and won ~$50 in both cases. Or I can play both passively early, lose $15 sometimes and win $400 sometimes. People will eliminate big pairs from your range on the late streets just because you didn't 3-bet pre, they project their own strategy onto you, and it'll make for some big turn and river mistakes.