Quote:
Originally Posted by slowburnerdeluxe
I made the fold, the guy tells me he had kq for rivered 2 pair, bit annoying
he peeled three ways with bare KQ oop on an AKx board, peeled the turn unimproved, then donked ferociously with two pairs on the river. that's... pretty special. don't leave the table lol.
anyway, against a live rando I think you can pretty safely call the river and expect to see a lot of Ax two pair that took this line (I'd assign at least 15 combos of worse two pair to his range [AK/AQ/A2/A3] after discounting for no preflop raise, no flop raise, no turn raise. I'd toss in a combo or two of just super twilight-zone better sets. Maybe 1 combos of 22 plays this way? (I expect a turn raise or a flop raise or to check/raise the river). Most flushes draws don't survive the flop, and I'd give him maybe 7-8 combos of flushes, but I expect him to x/r the nut flush some % so I'm discounting. So I think we're going to win this pot well over the required 30% of the time to find a call.
p.s., after seeing this hand go down, this exact same spot on the river is a trivial shove against this villain.