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1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot 1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot

09-02-2013 , 06:41 PM
bet flop
1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot Quote
09-02-2013 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
ok so herein lies the problem. you seem to think if he has 88-JJ we only get one street of value regardless of the line. i wholeheartedly disagree and here is why. when we bet the flop he may call with those hands, but the turn becomes a spot where the usually decide to let go because they do not want to call X only to have to face a river bet and fold. on the turn if they call a bet (after a checked through flop), now we are already at the river. they can decide after i bet the river whether they want to call or fold, and the call will be more likely to be made on the river than on the turn because of no possible future action. they may not be thinking about it exactly like this but their subconscious is. if we hope to be able to get 2 streets our best option is to bet turn/river here.
The best way, imo, to get two streets of value from 88-JJ is to bet flop, check turn, and bet river. They will often bet the turn themselves when you check.

If they bet small on the turn, then call it and donk-lead smallish on river.
1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot Quote
09-02-2013 , 07:20 PM
Bet the flop. You don't have the deck crushed. You have TPTK on a paired board. You might crush the deck when you flop a boat or something. Here villains can have hands like KQ, QJ, QT, Qx = dozens of combinations of second best hands. Villains will also call with other pairs. There's plenty of value on the flop.

I agree that checking isn't *horrible,* but it's definitely not optimal. You need to consider how much value you can get now (plenty) and how certain turn cards change that... cards can improve villains, make our range look stronger, etc., etc. Cards like A, K, J and T aren't necessarily good for us.

Like an A gives us two pair, but that doesn't mean anything when villains will now fold more Q's and pocket pairs. K's have the same problem - they could also improve villains. J or T makes things scarier for villain's 66-99, etc.

Bottom line, bet flop.

As played, turn is such an easy fold. You said he's an old man nit. I can't think of any reason to call. And you're in a reverse implied odds spot - you'll probably face another river bet though you improve from a one-pair hand only like 4% of the time.

If this was a RIVER bet, it'd be more interesting hand because it'd end the hand. Probably still a pretty easy fold though.
1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot Quote
09-02-2013 , 09:46 PM
I'm not sure if this is actually an easy fold. I think nits have KQs QJs and QTs here and if they bet KK $50 here, they probably bet KQ, QJ, QT for $50 as well.
1-2 Foxwoods AQ TPTK interesting turn spot Quote

      
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