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Old 07-15-2018, 10:01 AM   #1
dogarse
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1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

V is MAAG, limps a lot. Bit sticky post flop. A couple of hands earlier he had raised for the first time all night with AKo to $12, called a $32 3 bet and donked $200 on 588cc only to lose to the SS that over called pre 67ss.

On to the hand.

V limps UTG, hero over limps T9hh in CO. 6 players see the flop of Qs2h4h

Checked to hero in position who bets $10. BB and UTG call.

Turn Kc gets checked thorough.

River 6h

BB checks, UTG bets $120 into $42

Should we ever be calling here?
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Old 07-15-2018, 10:34 AM   #2
mdelore
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

You should probably iso this V with this hand in position preflop.

If I am reading the history correctly V donked $200 into a pot of about $100 with AK into 2 players on 885. I'm assuming the bet was for a full $200 and people weren't short. This hand shows V is absolutely clueless.

I am not folding to the $120 into $42 since you need to be good only like 45% or so. It looks like he can have basically anything in this spot going off what happened in the AK hand.
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Old 07-15-2018, 01:05 PM   #3
Gillingham
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

Delighted to call
Very much doubt he has a flush but could even have a worse flush and he can have other hands he's doing this with
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Old 07-15-2018, 01:36 PM   #4
Phil Me Up
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

He's already shown a propensity to overbet w/ air in bad spots, which should imply his range is not just better flushes here. I wouldn't be shocked if he overplays KQ/44/22/53 & smaller flushes in this manner.
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Old 07-15-2018, 05:10 PM   #5
riverfish1
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

he overbet with air in a spot where it's hard for the 3-better/caller to have an 8 and he may have viewed them as the type that gets MUBsy to big bets.

This is different. It's a lot easier for Hero (and the 3rd person) to have a flush here. I've found that when vills massively overbet pot in what seems like dumb spots - they're doing it to try to get action from marginal holdings later.

I also don't understand how 2x potting with air translates into "could be doing this thinking it's value w/2 pair or sets on a flushed board". Action vill would have bet/raised before the river w/ 2pr or a set.

Bet is super polarizing. Given its multi-way, on the river, and there are a ton of larger flushes but very few smaller flushes in his range I'm folding here.
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Old 07-15-2018, 10:12 PM   #6
Phil Me Up
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by riverfish1 View Post
he overbet with air in a spot where it's hard for the 3-better/caller to have an 8 and he may have viewed them as the type that gets MUBsy to big bets.

This is different. It's a lot easier for Hero (and the 3rd person) to have a flush here. I've found that when vills massively overbet pot in what seems like dumb spots - they're doing it to try to get action from marginal holdings later.

I also don't understand how 2x potting with air translates into "could be doing this thinking it's value w/2 pair or sets on a flushed board". Action vill would have bet/raised before the river w/ 2pr or a set.

Bet is super polarizing. Given its multi-way, on the river, and there are a ton of larger flushes but very few smaller flushes in his range I'm folding here.
Yeah, the situation is different, but many times over-aggressive players @ low stakes have no idea where to draw the line, and often blur bluffs & showdown value in spots we wouldn't. Maybe he thinks through hands like you do, who knows.

What we can say conclusively is that the guy will try to muscle very strong/narrow ranges off an 8 hi paired-board multiway in a low SPR pot w/ garbage equity. Maybe you view that as solid/thinking-play or something, but that just seems silly/reckless to me in a vacuum, especially @ low stakes.

I'm not saying you shouldn't discount overplays/bluffs here by a large %, nor am I saying he doesn't have plenty of flushes to worry about (and if we did the math you could certainly be correct that a fold is best), but to not include any is a mistake given reads IMO.
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Old 07-16-2018, 06:06 AM   #7
WereBeer
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

I call with these reads.
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:45 AM   #8
riverfish1
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Me Up View Post
Yeah, the situation is different, but many times over-aggressive players @ low stakes have no idea where to draw the line, and often blur bluffs & showdown value in spots we wouldn't. Maybe he thinks through hands like you do, who knows.

What we can say conclusively is that the guy will try to muscle very strong/narrow ranges off an 8 hi paired-board multiway in a low SPR pot w/ garbage equity. Maybe you view that as solid/thinking-play or something, but that just seems silly/reckless to me in a vacuum, especially @ low stakes.

I'm not saying you shouldn't discount overplays/bluffs here by a large %, nor am I saying he doesn't have plenty of flushes to worry about (and if we did the math you could certainly be correct that a fold is best), but to not include any is a mistake given reads IMO.
thinking it through and just experiencing a weird vill I'm moving to your side and am leaning towards call.

I initially thought there was no way that Vill a) have 2 pr (given that they never raised before the river) and b) would turn 2 pr into a bluff. However - it's possible Vil was trying to slow play and now is trying to 'get value out of their 2 pr' - for the reasons you said (and personal experience where yesterday I called an over-pot bet on the river in what I thought was a super polarizing spot and where my TPGK had a ton of showdown value. Vill had TPNK). Stupid bluff/value merges from Vill happen. Given this - it also means baby flushes are in range for this, as are stupid bluffs to try to rep the flush.

So I guess we call. We may be reloading close to 50% of the time but we still come out ahead.

Note - I don't view Vills flop overbet as solid-thinking in any way. It's stupid. But it also is very different from a river over-bet.
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Old 07-16-2018, 01:47 PM   #9
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Re: 1/2 Fold rivered flush vs 3x pot lead?

AP, I don't fold given history of this V. However, I might have continued to bet the turn as it gave us more outs (FD + gutter now). Might also get a better hand to fold which is a good result given our holding.
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