Quote:
Originally Posted by riverfish1
he overbet with air in a spot where it's hard for the 3-better/caller to have an 8 and he may have viewed them as the type that gets MUBsy to big bets.
This is different. It's a lot easier for Hero (and the 3rd person) to have a flush here. I've found that when vills massively overbet pot in what seems like dumb spots - they're doing it to try to get action from marginal holdings later.
I also don't understand how 2x potting with air translates into "could be doing this thinking it's value w/2 pair or sets on a flushed board". Action vill would have bet/raised before the river w/ 2pr or a set.
Bet is super polarizing. Given its multi-way, on the river, and there are a ton of larger flushes but very few smaller flushes in his range I'm folding here.
Yeah, the situation is different, but many times over-aggressive players @ low stakes have no idea where to draw the line, and often blur bluffs & showdown value in spots we wouldn't. Maybe he thinks through hands like you do, who knows.
What we can say conclusively is that the guy will try to muscle very strong/narrow ranges off an 8 hi paired-board multiway in a low SPR pot w/ garbage equity. Maybe you view that as solid/thinking-play or something, but that just seems silly/reckless to me in a vacuum, especially @ low stakes.
I'm not saying you shouldn't discount overplays/bluffs here by a large %, nor am I saying he doesn't have plenty of flushes to worry about (and if we did the math you could certainly be correct that a fold is best), but to not include any is a mistake given reads IMO.