Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,641
Range preflop: Probably pretty wide since he suspects a steal and is defending his blind. Let's say top 50% excluding the top 10%.
Range on Flop: Any pair except probably 44-22, 86, gut shots (esp. with an over card and backdoor flush draw), 108, 74.
Range on turn: 10-8, 74, 9-X, gut shots that backed into a flush draw (least likely of his range).
Range on River: We have to assume he's not betting 9-X. Flopped or turned sets/2 pair should have raised by now. His range is probably 10-8 and J9 mostly, these two hands are most consistent with all his actions.
I'd fold for the following reasons:
1. 108 and J9 are most consistent w/ his line.
2. He's described as "passive", meaning bluffs are less likely.
3. His bet sizing is large.
4. We've shown consistent strength and he's still betting.