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1/2 - is this a fold 1/2 - is this a fold

02-08-2014 , 05:18 PM
1/2 game typical table with a mix of loose passive and weak tight players.
hero has a stack of 400 and is in CO and has a tag image.
villain is in bb with a stack of 250, mostly loose passive but has bet out on a flush draw and oesd.
hero hasn't played a hand for an entire orbit.

folds to hero in CO who raises to 12 with Js7s (loose pre but exploiting position and image)
SB folds bb calls 12.

flop(25) 9s 7c 5h
bb checks
hero bets 15
bb calls (bb's range here.JJ-TT A9,J9,T9,98.T8 not sure if bb will c/c with 97s sets or 68 but possible due to rainbow board. he probably calls with a 7 some of the time if he "puts" us on AK.

turn (55)
9s 7c 5h Qs
bb checks
hero bets 35. (semi bluff)
bb calls. (68 and sets should really raise here unless v is very passive. not sure about 97/75. slighlty more likely v called flop with A8, AT or even AsKs!)

river(125)
9s 7c 5h Qs Jc
bb bets 90. (not sure if v will bluff his busted draw. T8 got there. we beat his flopped 2p but lose to sets/68.
folding seems nitty but how many combos do we beat here)
1/2 - is this a fold Quote
02-08-2014 , 05:33 PM
Range preflop: Probably pretty wide since he suspects a steal and is defending his blind. Let's say top 50% excluding the top 10%.

Range on Flop: Any pair except probably 44-22, 86, gut shots (esp. with an over card and backdoor flush draw), 108, 74.

Range on turn: 10-8, 74, 9-X, gut shots that backed into a flush draw (least likely of his range).

Range on River: We have to assume he's not betting 9-X. Flopped or turned sets/2 pair should have raised by now. His range is probably 10-8 and J9 mostly, these two hands are most consistent with all his actions.

I'd fold for the following reasons:

1. 108 and J9 are most consistent w/ his line.

2. He's described as "passive", meaning bluffs are less likely.

3. His bet sizing is large.

4. We've shown consistent strength and he's still betting.
1/2 - is this a fold Quote
02-09-2014 , 06:28 PM
kinda interesting spot.
i will say that i dont really love the turn bet. you called it a semibluff, but really the only better hand i could see folding is like A7. you have the best hand a decent amount and most better hands arent folding.

depends exactly how passive he is, but you say at least he has bet before without the nuts so at least he could do some weird stuff. given that villain had c/c flop and turn in this hand (as opposed to raising either street) then leading this river, i would say that if you are beat it is likely only T8/J9 as the other poster said. he could be valuebetting worse than your hand too, and you only need to be good like 30% of the time.

i'd call
1/2 - is this a fold Quote
02-09-2014 , 08:25 PM
I'm folding here, with info shared by OP I don't see villain bluffing enough to warrant a call. The fact that it's a large bet at 90 into 125 and in the face of hero, who had bet all the way, makes me believe our hand is just a bluff catcher.
1/2 - is this a fold Quote
02-09-2014 , 09:24 PM
as played ans with described villain i call
1/2 - is this a fold Quote

      
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