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1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? 1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played?

05-22-2019 , 04:47 PM
1/2 NL, six hours into session, 9 handed.

Hero ($500, BB): Hero has a very tight and aggressive image to villain. Villain definitely sees hero as one of the stronger players in the room. Villain and hero had played a hand yesterday where hero called a flop raise over hero's c bet extremely liberally, and hero won at showdown, causing villain to berate hero's call, and was visibly very upset about the hand.

Villain ($500, BTN): Villain is LAG, and pretty bad. He's extremely aggressive, and imbalanced towards value when applying aggression, but definitely makes his fair shares of bluffs, sometimes with complete air and no draw. Villain will usually give up on the third barrel in position, except occasionally vs tight passives, which villain does not view hero as. Villain usually fires flop barrel, then checks down medium strength hands, and two barrels with value hands, draws, and junk. Villain will mix in bet flop, x down, with draws that have sdv and are not made on river. Villain is also a bit of a calling station, though he is slightly less of a station vs hero, he makes awful flop calls on a regular basis, and occasionally awful A high, bottom pair calls vs hero that make no sense.


OTTH

Loose passive UTG that has an AA-KK 3 bet range only straddles UTG for $5, everyone folds to villain on BTN who raises to $20 (standard) and only hero calls in BB with 2 2.

Flop ($48): J 6 2. X-$30-c.

Turn ($108): 4. X-$75-c.

River ($258): 9. Do we shove here or check with the intention of a crai? I feel like in most situations this just a crai, but because of the fact that villain very frequently gives up on his triple barrel bluffs in position, that it'd be better to just shove here knowing that villain is a station and that he likely wouldn't even be firing here as a bluff.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-22-2019 , 05:14 PM
I'm a LAG myself but I know when to slow it down, as described villain does not. As the hand went he is putting you right now on Jx. Since his range is so wide, he would have a lot of folding equity if he shoves the river (unless you have a set as you have in this hand) because i'm assuming you very probably won't call a shove with just one pair (unless he sees you as a calling station or has seen you make hero calls in the past). This is a perfect spot for him to bluff so just check and let him fire the river. If you lead on this board there are very few hands that might call you, it would look very much as an slowplay
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-22-2019 , 05:28 PM
This is 100BB Effective - so not deep. XR river.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-22-2019 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
He's extremely aggressive, and imbalanced towards value when applying aggression
This is not really a LAG. It's sounds more like he is a whale who overbets and overvalues hands and calls too much.

AP, you are done getting value from air so don't worry about that. (V doesn't like to triple barrel bluff - a common trait amoung 1/2 players capable of bluffing.) The question is how can you extract the most $$ from overpairs and J-x.

Checkraising river is a mistake. He's shown that, despite his whalish tendencies, he understands the concept of pot control, and the pot is way big enough for J-x. If he's better than you think, he might check it through with overpairs as well although this is not all that likely. ( Almost 3X more J-x in his range.)

I would have check raised the turn modestly and then put the rest in on the river. No point in doing this in one big chunk on a 1/2 table. You are much less likely to get anything that way.

There is also the issue of the fact that V might possibly have a set. If so, you are going to lose all your money if you played postflop properly. That is why many people don't call big raises with pocket deuces OOP.

Last edited by $FishWreck$; 05-22-2019 at 05:50 PM.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-22-2019 , 06:38 PM
Seems like an nice situation to make a weak lead otf. I guess it sucks that the board is dry, but that might be the best way to get him to really go nuts with air.

Might be the play even on the river. Get one last bit of value from weak showdown hands, maybe induce bluffs when he was otherwise done bluffing.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-22-2019 , 07:32 PM
I dislike leading river even though your reads argue for it
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 12:26 AM
I look more at the dynamic the day before more then anything else. Hes still pissed at you and the last thing he wants to do is lose a big pot to you. Usually I like raising the turn vs LAGs but this dry of a board its fine to make your move on the river. I dont think he has anything because a LAG never does but on this dry of a board I expect him to x behind a lot with any J or 6 since he thinks youre a calling station.

With all of this in mind I like a 1/2 pot lead which should get a call from a garbage J and will have a high possibility of him blasting at you with his air and leaving him thinking you have enough behind to fold to a river raise. I see people go for a small bet in these spots to induce a lot and the LAG ends up calling with a decent SDV hand.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 01:12 AM
X again and let him blast his air +value if he is that aggro
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 01:42 AM
you should have C/Red the turn to 165.

As played, you both have about 375 left, so plenty of room for him to fire a third barrell and set up a CRAI. But I think leading for something stupid like 50 is better. You might be able to get him to spaz and shove over you. Or, he will call the 50 just out of frustration. If he actually does have AJ or J9 here, you might get him to raise the river anyway.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 09:33 AM
I like either check/raising or betting small to induce. I'd go $50 - $75. Checking is probably best, though, given description. Makes me sick to see it check through, but if it's going to check through, he's not calling much and not raising anything with the stacks left (or shouldn't be).
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 02:36 PM
I think I would've far rather c/red either previous street -- maybe even c/r flop super small, like something fishily small like $65.

You're not deep, incidentally, this is only 100bbs deep because of the straddle. This shallow, even c/r to $65 on the flop gets all the money in by the river with 2/3s 2/3s on the later streets ($415 remain if flop c/r gets called with $180 in the middle, so $120/295 gets it all in).

Fishy sized c/r may get LAGgy villain into a pissing match where they make a small 3! and then it's trivial to get it AI on either remaining street after a call.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 04:21 PM
Ckc Ckc ck is ok but AP flop, prefer ckr turn.

Against this type, my go to line would be lead flop small. ckc turn. ck shove river.

Really don't like ckc ckc lead whatsoever, especially on brick-like rivers.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 04:48 PM
Spoiler:
Hero checks, villain bets $150, hero shoves and is called by J 9. I felt like I got really lucky with the river card and didn't love my line. It sounds like x-r flop or turn is best.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 07:02 PM
I would x/r in this situation, I like idea of a small lead to induce though.

Congrats on the hand OP, I think you successfully got the villain to tilt even more.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-23-2019 , 09:25 PM
Spoiler notwithstanding, I think the river is a check as played. Usually in LLSNL we would want to lead the river because we are afraid of Villain checking back with hands that would have called. The described Villain is the opposite. He probably will bet good 1 pair hands for value.

If you think my I interpretation of your read is wrong, then I think you should have led the flop and taken control of the hand early.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-24-2019 , 03:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
Spoiler notwithstanding, I think the river is a check as played. Usually in LLSNL we would want to lead the river because we are afraid of Villain checking back with hands that would have called. The described Villain is the opposite. He probably will bet good 1 pair hands for value.

If you think my I interpretation of your read is wrong, then I think you should have led the flop and taken control of the hand early.
Do you think if V didnt hit top 2 on river he was betting J9 there? My analysis stands and this type of player could have J2s all the way up and J7o+. Lead river or x/r turn if its a wetter board.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-24-2019 , 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
Do you think if V didnt hit top 2 on river he was betting J9 there? My analysis stands and this type of player could have J2s all the way up and J7o+. Lead river or x/r turn if its a wetter board.
Your V here is all gas pedal and no brake. I think he’s 3-barreling all the way. By the river, you have to wonder how he’s ranging you. When he bets the turn, he has to be thinking you have a stronger Jack and the only way he can win is through aggression.

So when he binks river, he’s always betting. But I think if he doesn’t bink his two pair, he still has to maintain his story of strength.

I honestly think you played it perfectly. It was jujitsu all the way. As the great grinder Napoleon said, when you’re enemy is making errors, don’t interrupt him. No need to x r or do anything to disrupt his rhythm.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote
05-24-2019 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Your V here is all gas pedal and no brake. I think he’s 3-barreling all the way.
Except in the OP he specifically says V doesnt barrel SDV hands and anyone who actually plays poker has a hundred examples of even terrible LAGs checking back weak top/2nd pair.
1/2 Flopped set deep vs LAG on extremely dry board - do we lead river as played? Quote

      
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