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1/2 flopped set bet sizing 1/2 flopped set bet sizing

08-06-2016 , 12:28 PM
For the Raise-Pre debate:
The way the table was playing any Ax suited, 2 Broadway cards, and even some suited connectors(there was a $500/hr High Hand promo running) are calling up to $12 with out much hesitation. So knowing I'd likely have to face multiple opponents OOP while also opening myself up to a $25-35 3bet didn't seem optimal to me.

AP, it seems based on responses I over bet the turn as I lead for $100 and took the pot
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08-06-2016 , 12:29 PM
The bottom line is that you want to get calls on your big flopped hands. So, by all means, wait an extra few heartbeats before betting. Hesitation is often enough to increase the chances that you will get the call, as your opponent will be more reluctant to believe that your hand will beat his. Players come to the casino to call, not fold. They look for excuses to call & see the next card and if you hesitate before betting, you have just given them the perfect excuse.

Most tourists that come to Vegas and rush into the poker clubs are predisposed on calling because that's why they plan their vacation to see lots of poker hands. Not to fold. You need to keep this in mind and smoothly work your opponents.
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08-06-2016 , 12:33 PM
When you flop a set, you *want* multiple callers. Your odds of winning don't go down nearly as much as the size of the pot increases.

This isn't a raise as we'd make with something like AK, where we're hoping to make TP and then to dodge some bullets. We're raising because if we hit, all the other players are drawing either nearly dead or very thin.

If you could raise to 12 and get the entire table to call, that would be great!

Another advantage of raising small is that it preempts someone that might have raised larger. A larger raise cuts your implied odds both by increasing the preflop bet and by reducing the number of callers.

Getting 3b is bad. If that's likely, then limping is better. How many of the last 10 raises have you seen 3b?
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08-06-2016 , 12:50 PM
I'm betting 35 on the turn. I want to bet more, but I can't because too many fish see you go from 12 on the flop to 60 on the turn and snap fold. They'll call 35-40.

River bet depends on he number of callers we get on the turn.
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08-06-2016 , 02:44 PM
My thinking on the big turn bet was pretty much make them pay substantially for any draw or combo draw they may have. Knowing if they brick the river I won't get another dime from them anyway. Also if by some fluke I was up against 109 there it would pretty much dictate they would re-raise all in. Probably poor logic, but at least I scooped a pot
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08-06-2016 , 03:29 PM
Perhaps some of the the debate over whether to raise preflop or not, depends on an individual's skill level, particularly the ability to play and make reads post-flop. If you do some self assessment and find yourself uncomfortable playing pots post flop, limp and try to smash some flops and go from there. It sounds as though some of the fear of raising preflop is playing the hand oop and not hitting a set, which we all know is going to be the case more often than not. However, big session wins are just going to be fewer and farther between if you aren’t getting money into the pot preflop, allowing stacks to more easily be put in post flop when you smash it.

Let’s say you limp in w/ hands such as 99, and flop a set. The pot is going to be $8-$14 for the table dynamics that you have described. What amount are you going to bet otf that doesn’t lay proper pot odds and/or implied odds for draws to call you, and will you be able to fold if a suspected draw comes in? You still have the same dilemma as before of how to proceed post flop, but now you have additional issues such as, less defined hand ranges, a smaller potential pot to be won, and you are laying better prices for draws.

With limping you basically have all of the same problems you assess with raising prefolp, with a slimmer possibility of winning a large pot. When you raise and the flop is wet, think KQJss, you can check/fold and you lose $10 more. If you are playing at a table with opponents that are taking flops and consistently bluffing you off of hands when a single high card comes and they don’t have it, you need to find a new 1/2 table. Most 1/2 tables are going to be playing pretty tight/straight forward in a pot that is raised preflop and goes 3-5 ways to the flop. Additionally, if the table is truly sticky postflop, even better, you can just get away from hands when they bet, and you get the opportunity to value bet them to death.
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08-06-2016 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero2Hero13
My thinking on the big turn bet was pretty much make them pay substantially for any draw or combo draw they may have. Knowing if they brick the river I won't get another dime from them anyway. Also if by some fluke I was up against 109 there it would pretty much dictate they would re-raise all in. Probably poor logic, but at least I scooped a pot
I think you need to rethink your reasons for betting. You want value, not to bet to charge a draw or to protect your hand. People get weary of their draws on the turn when they've bricked the turn. So you cant overbet hammer them. Typically. But because you are multiway to the turn you can still bet on the large size, around size of pot, maybe a little less. You cant be thinking "at least I took down the pot." Its pretty bad thinking, you have them crushed and willing to put in more money then you blew everyone out of the pot. That's bad. You want to get them to call while having very poor odds. The turn is the magical place where you can get in a lot of money as a HUGE favorite. Don't steal your own magic. When you are oop and the river bricks, then you can check it to them to induce a bluff, if you are very sure that most of their range is missed draws. If they have a mix, then you need to make a decision between checking and betting, with keeping in mind that most people are going to be showdown bound, so they are unlikely to bet thinly, but will call with those hands that wouldn't bet with. So you might error on the side of caution with betting the river on bricked boards when their range is a mix of TP hands and missed draws.

You want value. Value. Value. Value. If you are forcing them out, its not value, its a mistake. Like turning your hand into a bluff.

Masta--
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08-06-2016 , 11:16 PM
Limping pre w/99 in EP is fine. In fact, raising is spew.
Flop is fine too.

On the turn, I would bet enough to deny odds to an OESF draw (15 outs, or ~30%) but small enough that I get called, or 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot. $45-$55 seems right to me.
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08-07-2016 , 04:14 PM
alot of good advice and varying opinions,which is the reason I wanted to post this very hand. Some good insights on what I can work on going forward. Thank you all.
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