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1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value 1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value

10-11-2013 , 12:00 PM
1-2 Parx, been at same table for about 5 hours and am down about $500 due to losing two huge pots thanks to one bad call off and one suckout.

Hero - $350 stack, shown down a few questionable hands after raising but had tightened up after this, lost two huge pots as described above, had been fairly tight in the most recent hour or so.

Villain - $250 stack, old guy seemed to be playing fit or fold, saw him call a river bet and then instamuck his hand (yes, seriously), didn't explain why, saw him raise to $150 on a 8-9-Qr flop when it was bet $10 and called in one spot, he was last to act, he showed J 10. He had also made the same raise two or three other times but hadn't shown the hands.

Preflop - Villain limps from EP, 2 calls, aggressive good player raises to $13, I'm on button with QQ and 3 bet to $32, Villain calls all others fold.

Flop - AQ5

Villain bets $40, Hero thinks and raises to $100 (I think he has an ace here roughly 99% of the time, if not then he has 55).

Turn 8

Villain checks, hero????
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 12:30 PM
This card is basically a blank and there is already pushing $300 in the pot with only $118 behind effective. This really should be another 'bet' of $100 since you are very reasonably ahead and giving a great price to call.

But in some cases since the price is so good here I might check and go for the crying call on the River if he has AK and misses again but thinks he has me out kicked somehow. You are facing only a flush or straight popping up on the River and both seem rather unlikely with Ad on the board. Worst case is another A comes out and he has AQ (or had AA, unlikely). I guess you could be afraid of KK also.

I like a check here since the price is so good for him to c/c River or try a lead out bluff/AK bet the River. If you both were a little deeper then I would continue to bet this Turn. The 8 is such a blank I let him try to catch something on the River or see another blank to lead/call his AX with on the River.

Does he put you on KK/QQ? ... He did limp flat a 3-bet, can he have JJ/TT here? Wha is your 3-bet range after such a big session? I think you are good here and you could go either way ... of course you are calling or betting all Rivers, right? GL
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 12:40 PM
I would have just called the flop since there are no draws other than a gutshot and you can raise turn if he donks again, plus you still have two streets to easily get in another $180. Raising flop says "I have AK or better" and he might fold almost his entire range other than AK/AQ/sets. Calling flop also allow him to bluff shove turn if he thinks you have KK. Now that he called flop raise, you have to shove turn since it's only about a 2/3 PSB. Also, 3b bigger.
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
I would have just called the flop since there are no draws other than a gutshot and you can raise turn if he donks again, plus you still have two streets to easily get in another $180. Raising flop says "I have AK or better" and he might fold almost his entire range other than AK/AQ/sets. Calling flop also allow him to bluff shove turn if he thinks you have KK. Now that he called flop raise, you have to shove turn since it's only about a 2/3 PSB. Also, 3b bigger.
Why 3b bigger? I guess if he's calling the extra $60 he's calling another $25 or something.

Reason for raising was because he had seen me get out of line, and I'd seen him do that horrible river call insta-muck, I think calling flop may have shown more strength but I'm probably thinking too much (or badly) and he would see a flat call as marginal.

I think flatting the flop is probably better, but as played, can I check back the turn and hope for a bluff on the river from him?
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGramuel
Why 3b bigger? I guess if he's calling the extra $60 he's calling another $25 or something.

Reason for raising was because he had seen me get out of line, and I'd seen him do that horrible river call insta-muck, I think calling flop may have shown more strength but I'm probably thinking too much (or badly) and he would see a flat call as marginal.

I think flatting the flop is probably better, but as played, can I check back the turn and hope for a bluff on the river from him?
3b bigger preflop, not a bigger flop raise. You 3b his open to $32, should have been $45-50. I don't like checking turn since he's probably c/c river anyway after calling the flop raise. Might as well get it in on the turn.
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
3b bigger preflop, not a bigger flop raise. You 3b his open to $32, should have been $45-50. I don't like checking turn since he's probably c/c river anyway after calling the flop raise. Might as well get it in on the turn.
Right, reason for not 3betting bigger is I think they fold AK/AQ/AJ/JJ/TT/99 even to a bigger raise, but will call a smaller one. Wasn't worried about the guy who raised as he was aggressive and I'm way ahead of his range.

This is likely bad and a major leak in my game.
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote
10-11-2013 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
3b bigger preflop, not a bigger flop raise. You 3b his open to $32, should have been $45-50. I don't like checking turn since he's probably c/c river anyway after calling the flop raise. Might as well get it in on the turn.
V didn't open, he limped, which makes his smooth of a 3-bet even more interesting (and really not AA/KK either) ... but a larger PF 3-bet does 'help' prevent some of the limpers from getting priced in if someone just smooths your 3-bet as it occured here. Only positive from a smallish 3-bet is that you were on the button here. GL
1-2, flopped middle set, how to extract value Quote

      
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