Game is a 1-2 NL fish-fest with lots of straddling. Stacks get fairly deep.

Villain ($600): I hadn't played with him before, but he's a fishy MAWG. Saw him limp 86s in EP, then call a raise followed by a 3-bet. Chased a flush draw on the flop and hit by the river, which is how he got his stack.

Hero ($400): Also a MAWG. I probably have a "LAG" image because I happened to get dealt several premium hands recently, as well as suited broadways that are good enough to raise limpers in LP. I'm stuck $200 after whiffing every flop and meeting resistance when I c-bet.

Preflop:

Hero open-raises to $10 UTG+1 with TT, three passive players in MP/LP call, villain in SB calls, BB calls.

Flop ($60): QT6r

Checks to hero who bets $40, only villain OOP calls.

Turn ($140): J, brings backdoor flush draw

Villain donk bets $125, hero...

I don't think I like just calling here. Should I be willing to get it in?

That is a painful situation against an unknown fish. How passive/aggressive is he? What does he do with draws? Any chance he limped in with AK and called flop? Any bluffs in his range? Can he be betting worse (AQ/QJ/66) for value? Will he bet once and slow down if called or is he going to be aggro on river?

This depends entirely on villain but my inclination is to call now and see what what villain wants to do on river. If villain shoves river I can get away from this.

Call or shove against this guy based on the 86 hand seem fine. He could easily have two pair and/or a decent draw. Of course, he could have a straight (89?). If you just call, you have to be willing to call almost all rivers.

Did he ever lead/raise in the 86 hand? Any other hands where he led?

In game, I probably shove.

The villain had only been at the table maybe a half hour, and the 86s hand is the only one I noted to myself. And even then, I didn't pay complete attention. All I know is that he played the hand passively until he hit his flush, but when he did, I don't know whether he led or just called an overpair's shove.

I think a player like this would do this with turned two pairs, a flopped two pair (QT) and a set of 66 wich fears a check back on a wet and draw havy board and also with straights (89/AK/K9). I think he would play his turned fd's passive like he did in the 86 hand but if he turns a turned FD ever into a lead this becomes an easy shuve.

So you beat:
- 9 Combos of QJ
- 3 Combos of Set 6
- 4 Combos of QT
- 4 Combos of JT

You lose to:
- 16 Combos of 89
- 16 Combos of AK
- 16 (4) Comobs of K9 (but could also be just K9s here in sb)

So I think overall it's a Call / Fold on river agression with this kind of passive player

no. you don't want to just get it in here, the most obvious draw just hit, AK.

call the turn and call the river if he donks again.

of course, if the board pairs or V checks the river, extract as much value as you think you can get.

If I call the turn, there will be $390 in the pot and I'll have $225 left. If the river blanks, do you call his shove?

I do.

FYI 98 is his most likely draw here, which got there.

You even out on sets (QQ vs 66), and there's really only 4 combos of QT left (only 0-1 of QTs).

AK is the only gutterball I'd really give credence to, since it's 2 overs + a gutter (though fish might chase with K9 for 40 into 60..).

Once we factor in QJ + JT, I think this becomes a pretty clear call.

We're almost getting enough odds to draw to a FH, 125 to win 490 (225 remaining after a call, and 265 in the pot). We need 4:1, so just about there (if he never folds a straight on the river even if the board pairs).

On a bricked river? If you think he'll jam 2p+, then it's a call, if you think he's only jamming straight+ then it's a fold.

FWIW fold river on a brick is probably correct, if I call I expect to be shown 98 more often than not.

based on the hand your told us about villian seems pretty bad, so I am trying to get the money in as fast as possible against villian. I think 2 pair and 66 are just as likely as a straight and you are never dead if he does have you beat. You are only beat by 3 hands (AK,89,QQ) which I think 2 of them are pretty unlikely (AK and QQ) and this guy seems bad enough to over value 2 pair.

Against an effective unknown I gii on the turn. If he can have AK, he has KQ too.

Also, was the Q the suit of the BDFD? If not he could have top pair + FD.

grunch:

Easy shove imo

Thanks for the analysis everyone. Here is what happened:

havent read spoiler yet, hope you shoved though.

lol regardless if he has the nuts , vs some people i will pre much never be folding sets in a 1/2 game vs fish