2/100 spread limit. Tuesday night game. 9 handed

V is early 20s WG. Bought in for $300. He's maybe been at the table for an hour. No memorable hands.

H is 30yo WG. Has been fairly active, raising pre in position and taking down pots with cbets. Recently has shown down TPTK and nut flush hands.

Effective stacks $350.

OTTH

V opens to $10 from UTG+2. Folds to H in BB who calls with 77.

I think this is a pretty standard call, looking to set mine. Any reason to 3!?

Flop ($17 after rake) 975
H checks
V bets $14. H calls

I thought about x/r here, but ultimately decided to just call. I didn't want to give him a chance to make a good fold.

Turn ($43 after rake) 8
H checks
V bets $20. H calls

Again, I thought about x/r, but I thought his small sizing likely meant a medium-strength hand trying to get value from draws.

River ($83) 2

H? How much should we bet? Or should we be looking to x/r?

Without much to go on I would generally lead turn and river for pot.

Flop check raise is super strong and unless I know he can't fold I would wait.

I would hate for a check back on the turn so I would normally lead it.

As played lead river for pot $75ish

I don't see any reason to 3! pre flop. I like the call.

On the flop I'm check-raising to $35-$40 with the two clubs. It's extremely unlikely that he flopped a straight, but there are a lot of turn cards that our bad for our set. I don't think we can just call here.

On the turn, as played, I think it's just a call. There's a four card straight out on the board now, so I can't see what we are folding out that is worse with a x/r.

As played, river is just a x/c.

I like a check-raise on the flop, too. Lots of ugly action-killing turn cards, particularly ones that put you in a tough spot. X/R may also induce AXcc hands to jam which is what you hope for.

As played I bet the turn and check/call if he sees a river with me.

You must raise this flop.

You must raise this flop.

You must raise this flop.

Agree, no reason to 3b preflop.

I think checking this flop is terrible. I think flatting after you check is terribler.

We should consider slow playing when...
* There are few hands V can call us with and...

*...a free card is unlikely to hurt us, but may give V a good second-best hand. (Giving V a crappy second-best hand isn't particularly useful.)

*...V has shown that he will often bluff into demonstrated weakness

*...A check may cause V to significantly misread our hand.

None of these is true here.

There are lots of draws that could call us, as well as overpairs and whatever else he might have. V's are looser on the flop than on the turn. He's more likely to find a loose call with something like AcTx on the flop than on the turn.

A free card may lose us the hand. Even if it doesn't lose for us, it's could easily kill action. If V has overcards, he's not going to fall in love with a non-club pairing OTT. He might lose another street, but he's not stacking off with it on this board and likely runouts.

No reads that V tends to bluff excessively. If he bluffs here, it's likely a semi-bluff -- which would have called a bet in any case, maybe even raised it.

If V misreads our hand, he's likely to think we have some sort of draw. There are a lot of scare cards. If we're shoving money in, he's likely going to think we hit if one rolls off. Thinking we have a straight or flush instead of a set isn't really helping our cause much.

Even if V does lead (as he does here), he leads for 14. You could have bet 20 and probably gotten a call from many hands that would have led.

Bet the flop! Bet the turn unless it's terrible. Eval the river to see if he'll make a crying call or to lose the least if he did outdraw you.

If he folds to your lead, you were unlikely to make any money anyway.

I don't dislike checking flop as much as everyone is saying. It would be with the intention of c/r. I c/r this as a bluff a decent amount so I need some value hands there too. To those advocating a flop lead: what is your lead flop range? I don't really have one but am interested in some perspective.

I like a check/raise on the flop because of the clubs. He could easily think you have a club draw, and if he has a club draw, he's not folding.

Turn kind of sucks because if you lead, he can so easily get away from his over-pair or AK, and check/raising here is really strong.

On river, I lead for about $40. He should really not be betting much here.

I'd often lead out here with 2P+. I have a strong hand that wants to get money in the pot and having it checked through would be bad.

A scare card coming is obviously disappointing.

My hand may well be worth three streets of value. Even if the turn is a brick, losing a street of value sucks.

In some cases, I'll get only one or two streets of value (for example, if a scare card does come). In that case, missing a street is an even larger fraction of my EV on the hand.

LLSNL V's are often not aggressive enough, which means I can't really count on V to bet as much as I'd like unless I have a read on this V.

The flop x/r is a strong move. It may let V get away from his hand where a more straightforward b/b/b line doesn't give him such an obvious "get away from it" point.

That said, your point about x-r bluffing is well taken. Against the right V's, I would sometimes play this exactly like a combo draw semi-bluff -- x-r big. But I'd use that line more often at a table with some other V's that were paying attention and played with me often enough to require some balancing, and I'd do it against a V I knew was likely to cbet.

I agree V will not get away from overpairs or top pairs easily if we go b/b/b. From a totally off-balance point of view I don't mind leading for three streets. I shy away from leading because I have a hard time balancing with bluffs/semibluffs that often do better as a c/r. As you said it is easier for V to call multiple streets when you're donkbetting but you don't want that when you're bluffing.

Agree with this. I don't know why you're checking the flop if it's not to c/r. If you've been active as you say you are (and even if not), there's very little chance he finds a good fold. I think you should c/r to 40-45.

Turn is fine, and river I agree with Javanewt. Small enough to get a crying call, but checking is missing a ton of value.

Thanks everyone for the responses. I see that I should have gotten more money in on the flop, either by leading or x/r. One of the leaks I'm working on is getting more value out of my value hands.

If anyone's interested in the results: I ended up leading the river for $60, V tanked for a minute and ultimately called. I showed the set and V mucked.

Preflop is generally a call, although a case can be made for both 3betting and folding.

I'm definitely x/r'ing this flop, and I can x/r some semibluffs here too like 65s, JTs and FDs. Make it $45.

As played, we want to x/c turn and x/c river.

For those who say check/call river, what do you think V is betting with?

+ 1 million. If you're not c/r this flop then you're just never c/r period which is awful.

Donking flop is bad, too, since its HU (I would do it multiway). If you donk your sets/2P here you have to donk your draws, when we really want to play those as c/r to maximize FE.

AP, bet river. He's not going to value bet a worse hand, and he's unlikely to bluff here when you have all the nuts combos in your range.