Standard table, mix of weak tight players with two big stacks.

Hero (600) : The young hoodie/earbuds type. Been playing mostly LAG, but has only showed down with premium hole cards so likely a TAG heater image.

V (700) : MAWG, playing well and picking spots to build pots. Haven't seen him get out of line.

We are the only big stacks at the table, butt haven't had any meaningful hands together.

OTTH:

UTG limps and it folds to a Hero in the HJ
Hero decides to steal and makes it 13 with T 5
V OTB calls
UTG folds

13+ had been enough to take down 1-2 limper pots. Button hasn't called any of our previous PFRs. We don't like the call from V but let's see what happens.

Flop (31) : K Q 2

BB checks
Hero cbets 20
V semi-tank raises to 68
BB folds
Hero?

Now PF, this table doesn't really 3bet PF. So any 3b is KK+, occasionally TT+ or AKs.

At this point, I think Vs range includes KQ+, AQ+, 22-JJ, discounting but including QQ and AJs. I then remove non-set, non 2P and non premium flush hands leaving Vs range at AhJx+, JhXh, KQ, 22, QQ.

I'm not convinced he made the higher flush, but I'm also not convinced my middling flush can win at showdown with 2 cards to come and 2 more bets from V. Facing a 2/3 PSR, I'm convinced V wants to get the money in.

Thoughts on the action and hand reading appreciated.

I think once you play T5s suited this way and flop a flush on a board that blocks most of V’s flush but gives him quite a few value hands (2p, sets, AhKx) I think I’m going with it even 300 bb deep.

Yea, look here’s the thing, you’re going to want to select a tighter range of hands to start off with. So what if you take down a few 5 buck pots pre when you’re faced with breaking even pot scenarios and getting raked/tipped every other n’again. You’re making nothing (at best...jk, you’re losing) with that range long term in 1-2.

Unless you’re just having some fun gambling ditch the hand pre.

Thanks for the input but you didn't answer either question.

Edit: To add, your take is valid at a strong table. But at a weak-tight table what I'm doing is positive EV and always folding is leaving tons of money on the table.

I'm big stack and everyone is consistently folding rather than go HU vs me when there isn't a cascade of limpers. This means raise when IP vs <2 limpers.

I'm not advocating to always raise suited trash, but there are situations when it is merited. If you don't understand that, then maybe you have leaks of your own when deep-stacked.

I know how you feel boss...I started a thread the other day too and fielded all sorts of **** about things other than my question. Take my advice though. I mean well.

As played, I agree with Twitch and you should be ahead of V's range in this spot. You have a strong but vulnerable hand (any heart or paired board would be worrisome). He could very plausibly have 22s, KQo, Ah-X, J10, so lots of combos you're ahead of. I guess QQ and KK are possible but many Vs would 3-bet those preflop.

So I'd commit and re raise to 200ish on the flop and be willing to get it all in.

I'm just discussing, no worries. You raised a good point.

Yes in general this is a losing strategy, but in the right conditions it's massively +EV. In this case I have those conditions.

Also as a LAG, I make a living by consistently raising IP. I disguise my hands, let's me pick up value, and gives me an "action" image.

I have to take a dump and go grab groceries (like immediately)...

-I believe you when you say “right conditions”
-I disagree that it is massively +EV

Specially, I am arguing about the hand 10 5 suited. You need to be honest with yourself, like right now today (And Come To Jesus!), because I am trying to help you.

Do what you’re doing just select hands stronger than 10 5. You’ll still have the image you’re after.

Sorry I have to go ****.

Interesting. I would imagine that 50%+ of 2+2 posts are made while taking a dump.
Personally I make better decisions while pooping.
Probably hurts my live winrate tho not being able to and all at the table.
Except that one time... But they don’t let me in that room anymore.

Is he calling pre with A2-A9s? If not that leaves him with AJ, AT, and JT of hearts. That's 3 combos. He has 20-40 combos of other value / semi bluffs depending on assumptions. He also could be drawing dead with a smaller flush. I raise intending to stack off on all blanks, check evaluating on hearts and board pairs.

I also perform better on the can

H blocks JThh and AThh. Not a ton of flushes out there.

Oops right. That makes it even easier

I would love to discuss the EV of this, but your posts make it impossible for me to tell if you're being facetious. (I think you are.)

That being said, I'll offer my view in hopes that others want to discuss.


I would say there are a few prerequisites for this to work:
1. A weak tight table
2. A deep stack or semi-deep stack
3A. A positive image, your raises aren't always getting looked up
3B. Your raises vs <2 limpers don't consistently go multiway
4. A late position, ideally OTB but in certain conditions up to HJ
5. A table where people are not defending blinds/limps vs You (doesn't matter if they defend vs others)
6. You aren't attacking every limper/blind
7. You aren't consistently showing down non-premium hands
8. You are a competent post-flop player

With all of these conditions met, I say it can be +EV. Without even 1, it's -EV. Either too many callers, too many l/rr, and a variety of other bad things will happen.

So why these conditions?

Imagine your table image, and the mentality of the table given these conditions. It boils down to two things:

1. You being committed to raising and picking spots to barrel. You are winning pots and showing down made hands. You don't appear to be bluffing either. You are also committed to folding when necessary.
2. Preflop the table doesn't want to play heads up vs you unless they start with AA,KK,AKs. You are raising a lot, but you've only shown down big hands.

Point 1 should be obvious, but let's explore Point 2. Considering the conditions above, if we do face JJ+, we should face a 3bet and correctly fold non-premium hands. Anything else and we have a flop HU with position, where V is going to whiff or get scared more often than V will hit. When we don't have premium hands, with 2 overs we are a small dog to PPs.

I'll add that if a pot goes multiway when we don't have premium hole cards, we want to fold when we whiff and don't want to show whether we win or lose.

It's also unlikely that you can sustain this at a single table over time. Table dynamics, your image, or people playing back at your button raises will force you give it up. Maybe a few M, maybe a few hours. But I doubt a full session.

I like the calls for raises, how big are we sizing?

175-200

175. If he calls, move in on non pairing turns.

Sent from my SM-N976V using Tapatalk

As others have said, there aren't too many combos of flushes that beat us. Ax, J9, and maybe J8s. And V probably isn't calling 100% with any Ax of hearts. And if V had the Ax of hearts, he isn't going to raise 100% of the with them. There is no reason to believe Hero has a really strong hand with a lot of outs against the nut flush.

But there are a lot of hands that V could raise with that we beat. Like AK and AQ with the Ah, KQ, set of 2s, just the naked Ah, J9 with the Jh.

Hero needs to raise here to about $200. If V shoves, I can't see how we can lay it down.

Appreciate the raise input.

In the end I folded.

My thought process was essentially:
1. He could easily be doing this with AhX hands. Based on my reads, AQ only.
2. He could also have a set. He's likely raising QQ pre, but not 22. He never shows up with KK here.
3. What cards can come that make me happy betting into him? A, J, and that's it. I could still be ahead for many other cards, but I can't call another raise OTT.

So I don't see myself putting in another bet, nor calling another big bet/raise. I'm probably ahead right now, but there is so little in his range that I beat.


In hindsight, I still don't think I raise but I think a call and check OTT would've been optimal. If I had the A or J I am definitely continuing.

You’re playing better than me man. Gl

I mean pre-flop is beyond awful but as played it's a pretty easy call. LOL raise and LOL fold.

This hand is such a MASSIVE trainwreck.

First we raise pre with a terrible hand, but get saved by flopping a flush!

Then we *fold* to minimal action when we almost always have the best hand. Like this fold is horrifically bad. He has plenty of worse hands he'd raise for *value* even ignoring Ah bluffs.

Your analysis is bonkers too. Literally any blank you should be happy to get it in on. Only bad cards are another heart or board pair.

Even your own ranging shows how terrible of a fold this is. Against a range of "AhJx+, JhXh, KQ, 22, QQ" you're *miles* ahead. Honestly, you're whole analysis makes no sense. If you're probably ahead right now and put him mostly on sets/2-pair, you should be excited to call and GII.

If you read the results, the key piece was I don't want to pay for stacks which is where I see this going.

Thanks for your input though.

If you don’t want to raise, that’s fine. Just call and try to hit blanks on turn and river. But why fold as a favorite?

I need some of you at my table; raise/calling jams with 10h flushes yes please

Honest question were ppl playing back at you more after that fold

OP one thing you may consider doing is taking a serious look at your past downswings in poker in order to understand what’s causing them.

I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone posting here could play well after ending up on the wrong side of variance when electing to incorporate weak hands in their ranges. It is a statistical fact that you will run into trouble with this range eventually. One major concern you should address is to what degree you’ll vary/compromise your already weak range. I suspect you gravitate towards an even weaker starting range, but I don’t know for sure. Most every human on earth would.

Just start stronger...all I was trying to say man.

The only other thing I suspect (as to why you are defensive about the issue) is that you just enjoy gambling. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. Poker is very enjoyable to many people who elect to gamble. Just make sure you can afford to do so. You are only playing 1-2 after all.

Here’s a tip to anyone understanding where I am coming from: Don’t get high off your own supply. In other words, if you want to make a buck in poker and you’re only rolled for 1-2... you can’t afford to have fun (or gamble) in 1-2.