Effective stacks $190

EP limps, Hero raises to $10 with q10dd, BB calls, EP calls

Pot: $30

Flop: JJ9 rainbow

BB bets $35, EP calls, Hero????

Reads:

BB: Very poor player who just loves to gamble. Puts people in decisions for their stacks very regularly. Claims to have just won big at blackjack.

EP: Quiet older man has just been pissing money away, calling down with inferior hands all night.

Hero: Perceived as one of the tightest players at the table. Got comments on whether I am ever going to play a hand or not(actually had won 2 smaller pots). Truth was I was just insanely card dead and never tried anything out of line.



Thanks for any input.

all in...can you ever fold here?

Thanks for the input, are you saying all in on the flop or turn? Sorry for my confusion.

I can fold. It is an easy fold since you are likely behind, it is doubtful a raise can fold out both the donk bettor and the cold caller, and you are drawing to a straight that might not even be the best hand if you make it.

Now that I've said my first thoughts, I'll read the spoiler....

At this point, the pot is enormous relative to your remaining stack, you made your straight, so you are committed to stacking off since your read on villain puts him at a much wider range than only exactly a full house. So, all in and hope to see trips or a bluff, not a full house.

Callings better than raising. Having no fe and great implied odds means that you really don't need to play this aggressively. If bb is leading with a J, you'll definitely get his stack if you hit, and a Q can very easily be good also.

Chasing draws on paired boards is usually lighting money on fire so I would just fold flop facing a pot size donk bet

Thanks guys. I see merit to what everyone has said. On the turn I'm betting $145 to win the $425 in the pot assuming they will both call at this point. Is there anyway you could explain the math. For example we only need to win around 25% of the time to break even? Is that correct and are we usually confident that we can win 25% against 2 villains or is that all dependent on reads?

usually agree with you, but imo we have terrible implied odds. if he has a J, J8, J9, JT, JQ, KJ, and AJ are about the most reasonable holdings. just two of them don´t make boats and can still catch up; all others leave us drawing dead with a hand almost impossible to fold if we hit. if he doesnt have a J, we won´t get money of him anyways.
i´d fold flop most of the times against two opponents.

this

OP said V1 "loves to gamble" and "puts people to decisions for their stacks very regularly". Certainly sounds to me like we'll get paid. And with V2 "pissing off his money", the situation can't get much better with two opponents and this board.

If V1 likes to put people to decisions, then certainly he's capable of repping a jack that he doesn't have. He'll fold to a raise, but he may keep barrelling.

Obv. Fold Flop to an overbet.
As played just ship the turn.

He has to call even with 9x + gutshot or sth.
But i doubt hes barreling with 45$ left into a 400$+ pot into 2 people with a bluff on the river.

*grunch* I don't see how we can call here.
Obviously we have to think that we've got 8 clean outs, but I don't really like the K options as KJ is a very possible holding for the BJ player. And the passive pisser. If the board has a diamond it might be a little bit closer, as we can back door our way into a flush also.
But still seems like a fold.





Edit:
Whee. Just read the spoiler.
Go all in on the turn.
If we are ever calling this on the flop, we have to stack off on the turn. Period.
The only question might be should we call and bet the river or just ship here.
folding the flop >>>> shipping now >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> anything else

This is simply a variance question. You have no fold equity and maybe the implied odds to play. Your EV for both folding and calling are close to zero. If you want to gamble or if you want to enhance your image as a gambler, you can call.

On the turn, you got your dream scenario. Crazy bluffer instantly bets...air is most of his range. Next dude tank calls, so he surely has just 2 pair and is putting first dude on a bluff.

I just call the turn so that crazy bluffer will fire the last 45 with air. Also you can save 1/3 of your stack for he unlikelihood that the board double pairs the river and you know you are beat.

Get it in on the river for any card not matching the board.

come on, really? ev for folding and calling close to zero? air is most of his range? surely has 2 pair? just call turn and save the last 45? i have to disagree.

If there is a decent BBJ I'm snap calling flop. Usually chasing draws on paired boards is suicide though.

As played call turn. Raising accomplishes nothing.

Of course. EV of folding is zero. EV of calling is (135+x)-35(5) where x is implied odds. So if we think we can get 40 bucks in the pot if a K or 8 comes, we should play. The answer is of course we can if they have pair 9 or better and way more if they have a jack(which is slightly offset by the possibility of a boat) so the EV is clearly 0 or a little better.

Of course air is most of his range. Did you see the villain description in the OP? Or do you ignore everything not related to your hand and the board in the posts?

OK I amend surely has 2 pair to most likely has 2 pair.

If you think the EV is not zero, explain. Right now your argument is weak. But not as weak as your argument to disagree with calling the turn. That argument is non existent. We are not saving the 45 unless the board pairs. For 80 percent of rivers, we are getting it in. For the other 20 % folding is a no brainier.

Never folding turn once we get there. Flop is questionable, but don't hate it that much given the reads of other players (i.e. I would hate the call if we never get all-in on turn when we hit it by any Jx).

I agree with this against most villains. I would call in this situation though

I'd fold flop bet. Call on the turn and let him try to bluff the river.

against the described players, in position, and closing the action call. You get to see what they do an all turns, and if we hit our Q or draw we are stacking off.

Raising pre is fine. I wouldn't say this is an always raise hand, but it's fine for variety.

The flop call is lighting money on fire. If you had a flush draw, I might be able to justify it, but even then, you are going to risk getting stacked here too often. You just are not getting the odds to hit the straight.

Since you called though. The turn is an auto-ship because you are only losing to KJ, J9, 99, JJ, and KK. Realistically, you shouldn't expect JJ or KK here, so you are ahead of probably 60-70% of their range. You are now getting your money in against 2 players that you know are calling. To make this a positive play, you need to end up good here 33%. I think you probably have close to that, but I also believe its close.

Overall, I don't feel great about the shove, but you are clearly committed at this point and no one is folding for 40 more. Even if the board pairs, a fold won't be easy. Get it in now.

Basically, when idiots start shoving stacks in on boards like this, you should expect them to show up with it a large portion of the time. The flop call is where this hand went wrong imo. Everything else seemed fine.

If you won, then that's great, but I think that is not going to happen often in this situation.

Don't ever feel comfortable on this board with a straight draw, to many connecting cards for it to be +EV long term imo. I can find a fold more often than not here but I also know a fair few who wouldn't in this spot and try and stack the trips hands.

Read this as open ended straight flush draw and was wondering why such nits itt.

Now that I know its just OESD, yea, flop can be thin. Villain dependent imo, but chasing draws on paired boards is usually bad as wj94 pointed out.