Alright chaps,

Got some questions for you here.

I actually posted a hand a while back where I got backraised and ended up losing with 2p to a set, this made me think of that hand as villains fairly similar in style.

Hero - button - $280. Only 1 or 2 other thinking players at the table, V3 is one of them, my image is probably quite aggro because I'd been raising the dead money in position a lot, I had recently shown down a hand where I raised Q10s OTB over a bunch of limpers and ended up winning a $150 pot with top 2 vs (a limp-called) KK.

V1 - MP1, $125, OMC from what I've seen, lots of fit/fold post-flop, but will actually take stabs with things like middle pair. Hasn't shown down much and has played virtually no big pots.

V2 - MP2, $500, uber-nit, more than doubled up with flopped set beating V3s OESD and NFD all in on flop.

V3 - HJ, $300, just been stacked about an orbit ago by uber-nit when he shoved A10ss on a 789ss board and dude tank called (I mean really long tank called) with 99. Obvious he knows what's going on and knows that I am thinking too. Does not seem to be tilting at all.

OTTH:

Vs 1, 2 and 3 limp, I have 66 and overlimp OTB. Blinds both call.

Flop is 568ddd (Pot - $10 after rake I think)

V1 bets $8, V2 calls, V3 calls, I make it $45, V1 calls, V2 calls, V3 shoves for just under $300!

Hero??????????

sick... if i was ever going to fold a set on the flop this would probably be the time. at best i think we are marginal favorite but most-likely behind. he is clearly capable of getting it in on a draw but the way the betting went OTF leads me to believe he flopped 2nd nut.

idk, without running the numbers i don't think you're making much of a mistake regardless if we get it in or fold. if you think he is doing it with a draw then it's a mistake to fold but i think he shows up with the goods very often based on his actions OTF.

On this board, with this many people...this is extreme strength. We're drawing to a boat. Fold.

Ship it in, and I don't think it's close.

We're a 2:1 dog against a made flush exactly, and you'll be getting right around 435:233. i.e. ~2:1 on a call here. You can't fold.

I also think villain's range is wider than a made flush. In fact, I think it's a lot wider.

First of all, good news imo - I don't think villain will ever, ever have 88 after just calling the initial $8 flop bet. Secondly, some bad news - I don't think he ever, ever has 55, either. Basically, I don't think villain ever has a better or a worse set. From a risk averse standpoint, it's nice to know we don't have to worry about being a 10:1 dog against 88.

Next, when villain calls the original $8 bet, his range is quite wide... flush draws, some combo draws, pair + draws, etc. - he's in a situation where he may lack fold equity, the pot is quite small (so there's less benefit to winning it now or risking a large raise just to see how little or how much fold equity he may or may not have) and he has a range of hands that will play very well with sizable stacks behind in a mutli-way pot, which is already growing nicely. He has a +EV call with so many different types of hands.

Could he also have a made flush? Maybe, but I think he'll almost always put in a small raise with such a nutty hand - he needs to protect against about 30 scare cards on the turn and start getting value on the flop. So a flush is possible but not likely, and sets and straights are basically impossible, imo. Again, he primarily has flush draws, combo draws, pairs + draws, etc.

When you raise to $45 and there are two calls, the situation for villain changes dramatically. Now there's a TON of money in the pot and stacks are now very shallow compared to the size of the pot making it very tough for him to simply call with the same range of hands that he called on the flop. Villains have shown weakness by only calling your raise. Now his best play IS to put in a huge raise to take down the pot now.

And it's obvious from the first two posts ITT that villain HAS fold equity here, even against middle set. And that's kind of crazy. And certainly, villain has a range of hands with a fair amount of pot equity, as well.

Either way, never, ever fold here. Villain could have a nutty hand, but I very much doubt it given his flop call/3-bet multi-way line, and his range is certainly much wider than made monsters. You're definitely a favorite - and very possibly a huge favorite against villain's range.

I like a shove.

Yeah after looking at the math, a shove can't be too bad...

But I really don't see too many draws in villain's range. Maybe enough to make this slightly +EV. The hand posted was one where villain showed a 15 out draw on a scary board heads up...very different from bombing into 3 people on a monotone board. He shouldn't expect to have much FE in this spot.

And it's hard to imagine how many NFD combos he has over limping the HJ. Shouldn't a competent villain be raising AdJo? Shouldn't he be folding Ad8o? (If he can have hands like Ad8o given pre then shove is obviously much better). Is he really shoving into 3 people with a non NFD?

His range just seems like a lot of suited connectors and Axdd to me. It's a rare villain who gets out of line on this flop with this much interest in the pot. Also hard to imagine a competent villain is trying to bluff out a passive player who already put in more than 1/3 of his stack (V1).

you really think his range is that wide? i agree he never shows up with 55, 88 or a straight. i find it hard to believe he doesn't raise flop with top pair + Ad so imo you could rule out Ad8x. maybe he might take that line with Ad5x, Ad6x. personally i'd give more weight to Ad7x and AdXd

ok, i just ran Ad7x, Ad2d, Ad3d, Ad,4d, Ad7d, Ad9d vs 66 and surprisingly (to me) we have nearly 43% equity vs that range. really thought our equity was going to be closer to 33% in this hand which would make it marginal either way.

lets not forget their are still 2 behind though and i really don't think we crush his range. either way, i still think it's marginal. i don't hate folding or calling tbh.

Not to nitpick re: a few hand combos, but OK, let's talk Ad8x. That's one of the stronger hands in his pair + draw range category (among TONS of other possible hands), but villain will still very often not raise the flop with it the first time around. Why should he raise Ad8x? Think about it for a bit.

Some questions to consider:

Is it a raise for value, and if so, what types of worse hands call? Is it a semi-bluff, and if so, what kinds of better made hands fold? How does he fare against calling ranges? What about ranges that 3-bet him? If he raises, what hands do villains fold, and is their folding +EV? What types of hands stick around - same question? What happens when he does not improve?

I don't mean to just rattle off a bunch of questions, but if you think about them, I think you'll see raising isn't a certainty, especially because pair + draw hands have something that pure draws don't - made hand / showdown value. Don't get me wrong. Sure you can make a case for raising Ad8x, but calling is OK. And either way, it's still near the top of this draw + pair range.

On another topic, look at villain's call/3-bet line on the flop.

It's a line that chooses not to raise a small pot on a monotone flop and then shoves when the pot is larger in the same spot. This is a line that is just BEGGING for folds, and I think it is very rarely a line for straight up value.

Right. And that's a straight up crazy-town range.

I would (unscientifically) guess hero actually has closer to 60% equity vs. villain's range.

I'm not going to post results yet, will do so tomorrow, but suffice to say I basically had no idea what to do, I could not figure out a hand that made sense to do this with for reasons that most have said, I did run through many attempts at leveling myself.

If this had been the old man doing this I think I could safely snap fold as he's literally only doing that with the nuts and I wasn't getting the price to draw.

This (thinking) player put me in a spot.

Raise pre. V obviously has a flush or at worst a set of 8's, Ad plus pair or SD, or flopped straight with SF redraw. If you call and can hopefully get another flush or Ad to come along for the ride you've got good odds, plus there's a bunch of dead money already. I would probably just get it in and reload if it bricks.

Backraises are almost always the nuts, just saying.

^^^ even back raises on monotone flops?

It really looks like the nut flush to me. He slowplays at first, then jams it when everyone seems to like their hand before a scare card comes. I just don't see this as a spot where people are semi bluffing much.

But we should get it in, hopefully someone else comes along to make our drawing odds better.

Almost always the nuts...V could have any pair or SD plus NFD, a flush, or a set. Doubt V shoves two pair. V should be pretty nutted though.

A pair + straight draw, or a pair + flush draw is pretty much crap here.

If we think that villain can be shipping even a few combos of these hands then this is a snap call, not even close.

Even without that though, I think getting 2:1 on our call, we need to be calling here.

I said pair or SD plus NFD...

Cheers chaps.

OK so results......

Raise pre. Overlimping otb is ass.

I would raise pre often in this spot but this time I elected to overlimp. I think either is fine and you can do both at varying frequency based on table dynamic.

Also, as this is a beginner's forum explanation is always appreciated.

With v1 and v2 being fit/fold nits and v3 being somewhat good but overlimping, it's like the free-est money ever by raising big pre.

Doesn't really matter what your holding is.

Understood. Should un-nit myself a bit more often.