Villain ($325): 40ish BG, been playing with him for about 2 hours. Seems fairly tight passive and this hand was the 2nd hand he had raised in the 2 hours. Seems fairly straight forward and fit/fold.

Hero ($350): 30ish WG, probably a TAG image to villain as I have raised more than he has pre and post, but nothing too crazy and have only showed a few hands and had the goods.

OTTH... one limper in MP, V makes it $15 OTB, Hero calls in SB, BB folds, limper folds. I am generally trying to play more 3!/fold from the SB, but here I ranged V on TT+/AK/AQs (maybe) because of how tight I perceived him to be playing. and just didn't see the value in bloating the pot OOP. I actually seriously considered folding but then just thought set mining had the right price.

Flop ($30) T95 Hero?? What is our general plan for the hand?

We need to start building this pot, but in the least aggressive way possible, given that your opponent appears to be a nit.

I would make a $20 donk bet, and then just call any raise. The rest of the hand is whatever will get the money in, based on the board and the Villain's behavior.

Check/call flop. If checked through, lead turn. Looks like most of his pfr range has an over pair. Leading may fold the bottom part of his range, though something like $16 may not.

Depending on card, C/R turn should be an option.

Check-call flop. Check-raise turn. Lead river.

If flop goes check-check, lead the turn and river.

If turn goes check-check, lead the river.

I check raise flop and lead lead to try to get stacks in

If he checks back lead lead pending runout

I'd mostly start with a check/call. A check/raise can't be horrible either, I suppose. Getting stacks in is probably gonna be difficult anyway against this player type on this board and out of position. Hopefully his cbet sizing will give you some more information.

Start with a x. After that depends on villain’s sizing and whether you think he’ll fold an overpair to a x/r or not.

The board has enough straight draws and misses AK/AQ that it’s reasonable to x/r as a semi-bluff with those hands.

So basically let the nit know he's beat by taking the line everyone does when they flop a set?

To the bolded, well yeah that's kind of the question of the day. Even among tighter players I feel like some wait for their premium pairs and then just stack off with them while others have the discipline to fold facing heavy action.

I think you are right though and that x/r the flop is probably the best line since in V's eyes I can have draws or even a stupidly played AT. I'm thinking the worst line is x/c flop, x/r turn because it looks the strongest and to the extent V is capable of folding an overpair he may be able to do just that.

I actually bet out 25 with the hope of getting raised, which I think is probably inferior to c/r because tighter players maybe don't raise enough in this spot with an overpair? V calls.

Turn ($75): T95 6r... Hero leads $65. V calls.

River ($205) T95 6J... Hero??

Bad river because it hits part of the range we are targetting and at the same time is an action killer for the rest of that range.

I'm not sure what I would do. Depending on any live read from the V at that river, could shove which I believe is about pot sized+ (he didn't come here all day to fold aces), or bet $100.

Here's something else to think about, everyone, regarding how to get the $ in.

What if the turn is a Q, J, T, 9, 8, 7, 6, and we xr the turn? There's a lot of "scary" things on the board if we do that. Is he really going the distance w/ KK or AA?

What if the turn is an A or K? Now if he wants to put a lot of money in, are we even ahead of his range? Like if he has AK, turn is an A and we xr, is he going to the felt?

We keep our range wider and give ourselves a chance to build a pot OOP by check raising right here. Nits have strong ranges. They've sat there for hours waiting for their overpair and their safe board. They finally got it. They won't fold a big hand to us; at least not right away. We throw in slowplays for a few reasons, one of which is to let our bluff heavy opponent hit something that can put more money in later. If this guy is "likely" to have a big hand, the last thing we want is for the board to get scarier for him. So let's go for it now.

OP as played, I think we just have to go for the gusto and shove. This is a bad card to get paid on (and also completes JJ to beat you), but our range is strong, so the times we show up here with a weirdly played QT that's now deciding to bluff, we'd probably do exactly this. I'm probably calling the raise if he shoves, too, so that sort of influences my decision to maximize against the portion of his range we beat.

Great post. To the first bolded, I think this is spot on. I think a lot of the analysis thus far (mine included) has implicitly assumed benign turn/river cards and we are not guarenteed that.

To the second bolded, I think this may be outleveling ourselves. IME very few folks turn made hands into bluffs at this level, so I think V would (correctly) assume a nutted hand or air. I opted for $100 and got the most crying of calls (V mucked, but obviously QQ+), so I felt pretty pretty good about the sizing but still wonder if he would have called it all off.