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Old 01-05-2014, 07:35 PM   #1
TextheZombie
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1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

$1/2 Effective stacks are $200. Villain in the BB is a reg, everyone in the room knows him. He plays pretty tight passive IMO but appears to be a winning player. He does a lot more calling than raising. Limps/over-calls PF a lot, Rarely opens for a raise. He plays really well post flop though. He takes a lot of time to think before acting post flop, and I have never seen him show down a second best hand. Hero is perceived as a decent TAG player.

Hero is on the button with KT. 1 limp from V2 in MP, Hero raises to $12 V1 in BB calls, limper in mp calls.

Flop: A96 (pot ~ $37)

V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: Q (pot ~ $37)

V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero bets $25, V1 calls, V2 folds.

River: 2 (pot ~ $87)

V1 checks, Hero?

A strong bet will get him to fold 1 pair here, but he could have taken this line with better as well.
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Old 01-05-2014, 07:43 PM   #2
brojaysimpson
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

If you were going to try to take down this pot the time to do it was on the flop. You raised preflop and most of the players in the hands will assume you have the A in your hand. Because of that it's great to throw a c-bet on a flop like this.

As played it looks like you're up against a Q at least and I'm not expecting them to fold anything they called with on the turn except small flush draws that you beat. check the river.
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Old 01-05-2014, 08:19 PM   #3
chosen23one
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

As played, surrender. A villain of this caliber isn't folding an Ace (which he holds the majority of the time in this spot) on the river, nor is he putting you on an Ace or better now after the flop was checked around. I think three barrels would have definitely gotten him to fold a small-medium Ace, and maybe he folds if you fired the flop and the turn. But since you didn't bet the flop, since he called the turn, he's calling the blank river almost all of the time.
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Old 01-05-2014, 08:28 PM   #4
Neverstraddle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brojaysimpson View Post
If you were going to try to take down this pot the time to do it was on the flop. You raised preflop and most of the players in the hands will assume you have the A in your hand. Because of that it's great to throw a c-bet on a flop like this.

As played it looks like you're up against a Q at least and I'm not expecting them to fold anything they called with on the turn except small flush draws that you beat. check the river.
100% agree. There needs to be a continuation bet when you're the preflop aggressor on the button when an ace hits. If you get called you can usually get a free turn card while keeping the pot small. A decent player will call you down if you check that flop and they have 2nd or 3rd pair and no scare cards come.
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Old 01-05-2014, 08:36 PM   #5
QuadJ
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

Villain is exactly the wrong sort to bluff here. When you don't c-bet flop it really doesn't look like you have an ace. When villain calls on turn he thinks his hand (probably any ace or a good queen) is good and the river gives him no reason to change his opinion.

A bluff would be more credible here if you had bet flop and checked turn, where you can represent a weakish ace. Even that depends on how you play turn though, if your betting any ace on turn then checking turn makes your flop bet look like a c-bet with air.
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Old 01-05-2014, 08:36 PM   #6
bschr04
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

Check back. You have a good bit of showdown value, despite the title of your post. You beat all of his missed draws. Save your bluffs for the very bottom of your range (78, JT, total air, etc.).

Also, he shouldn't be folding Ax and might not even fold Qx since so many draws missed.
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Old 01-05-2014, 09:31 PM   #7
jsmo0th10
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

If you are going to steal the pot the plan needs to be in place on the flop. This is an absolutely picture perfect board to bluff at with our hand. We have backdoor everything and the scary Ace hit the flop. Apply pressure now.

The reason why 1-2 is so profitable and bluffs are easily sniffed out is because most people don't have a plan for the bluff and their line makes no sense, as in our case here. The only hand you are repping is QQ. You are getting looked up by most Q's all A's and maybe some underpairs.
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Old 01-06-2014, 07:15 PM   #8
Ahutz
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

I feel like when you check back the flop you lose a little credibility with the incoming turn bet. I assume your opponent perceives you're hand as either a flopped monster or turned combo-draw, somtimes QQ, ya know. The question to bluff the river is basically do you think he can hero w/ a crappy queen OR 9x OR 6x ? If so, I would just concede defeat.

Well actually I don't know. If we assume we can't win at showdown. There should be a point where we should be bluffing here if we feel even somewhat confident he can fold weaker one-pair hands (as you imply he can) I wish I knew how to quickly count combos at the table. We could take his presumed range and figure out how many combos of his we feel we could fold out vs. how many total combos of hands he can have. Than we could deduce whether to bluff or not.
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Old 01-06-2014, 07:45 PM   #9
oh-nahhh
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

bet that flop dude! as played give up, he's not folding for just one more bet .... to get him to fold here you gotta overbet, maybe overbetting this hand here and the only other value hand you have here (QQ) in this spot is something isildur1 would do... heh
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Old 01-07-2014, 12:45 AM   #10
Albert Moulton
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

Check behind on the turn. If you raise preflop, as you did, then a cb would be appropriate on the flop, not the turn. However, since A-rag is big part of villains' range, checking behind on the flop (as played) is not bad either. Once you do check behind on the flop, however, I don't think the Qs is a "scare card" for anyone. Therefore, as with the flop, any A-rag will certainly c/c the turn and likely c/c the river too. So don't bet the turn. You lucked into a great draw on a free turn, so take another free card to see the river with the nut flush draw.

As played, I don't think you have much fold equity at the river. Many, many, many Ax hands will play like this and just calling you down. If you make a big river bet, then no one will believe you played that slowly throughout the hand with a set even top pair - meaning they will call you down light, certainly with Ax, because they will suspect such a big bet out of the blue is a bluff. On the other hand, if you too a free turn and back doored the nut flush, you could bet big there, and get called by quite a wide range of hands for the same reason - they will often talk themselves into believing that you are bluffing the scare card on the river.
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Old 01-07-2014, 01:04 AM   #11
Mr_Doomed
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

Bet flop, turn would of been a great 2nd barrel card and you may of not had to make a decision by the river. As played I am surrendering because you rep close to no value hands.
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Old 01-07-2014, 08:28 AM   #12
a12
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Re: 1/2 Fire River Bluff or Hand Over Pot?

Hand over Pot.
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