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1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet 1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet

09-30-2013 , 02:29 PM
This hand is a bit more of a line check then anything.

1/2:

Have been playing at the table for about 5 hours, completely card dead trying to get action from a a guy splashing around to my left. I look like a super nit.

V: Has my $250 stack covered: has been playing straight forward solid poker not seeing many showdowns from him and not noticing him raising very light.

V in EP raises to $8
Hero (directly to the left of V) with AK raises to $25
Folds around
V calls

Flop: J86

V checks
Hero bets $35
V calls

In my opinion this is a very standard cbet but maybe checking behind is okay? When he calls my 3bet and then calls this flop, I guess his range is mostly Jx, 9T and mid pairs, some of which have hit sets. QQ+ is possible but not going to give V credit for playing it like this.

Turn: Q

V bets $40
Hero...

This bet really surprised me. I've seen this play often as some sort of defence against someone cbetting a lot. And, knowing that if he has something like 9T he has to be betting more to protect if that is reason behind the turn lead. And add to the fact that there aren't much Q's in his range after calling the flop, maybe JQ but maybe not.

Bluff raise? Fold? I see merits to both and folding is obviously the standard play.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 03:04 PM
Sorry to pick at your reasoning a little here... but you said in your description of villain that he plays very straightforward, and is not raising light. Yet you have T9 in his UTG raising range? Seems a little light to me. Does he call every 3-bet? Or will that have narrowed his range further?

I think that its a fairly standard c-bet, you'll get most of his pp's to fold and overs that missed. I don't like the raise bluff, while yes it can work I think that committing a huge portion of our stack is not optimal. Given villains line, I don't think he's doing this with air, unless he "soul read" your AK 3-bet (possible certainly, given typical villain tendency). I say fold. But for fun's sake lets think about a raise.

Villain could be floating the flop with AQ and betting out when he hits. More likely is AJ, QJs, or a set. Also possible villain has lower pp that he's soul reading you with. A turn raise will only fold out the lower pp's, AJ and possibly give AQ a reason to think about it. If villain truly is straightforward I'd have to heavily discount the AQ and lower pp's and say his range is decidedly on the calling end of our 3-bet, and we have only 4 effective outs to a call. Probably not worth it.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 03:44 PM
Flop is super standard c-bet. He can fold lots of lower pairs. If he's opening wider, he can fold lots of other hands, too. Some you beat. Some beat you. Doesn't matter. Bet and try to take down on the flop, no question.

Turn is an easy fold, almost with or without your read. With your read that villain is straightforward, it's a particularly easy fold. Bluff raising is tough because villain has shown he intends to stick around, and he's representing value hands that aren't folding. You only have 3-4 clean outs. A and K aren't clean. You are ahead of some hands, like AThh if he peeled, or w/e - we can think of plenty of possibilities - but overall, it's just a fold.

Villain's range on the turn, which I'm limiting to things that he might open/call pre, even quite loosely, is probably made and reasonably strong (Qx+ - yes he can have Qx hands is he's looser than you think, like QT, even AQ/KQ can peel flop, and of course QJ is two pair).

So think you played it fine if you folded turn.

If I held AJ, I think that's a fold too, though looks like we're getting ~ 4:1. Temping odds, but probably still a fold, and a river bet you don't want to call is likely.

One alternative line here is to call pre-flop. Not sure I love 3-betting villain in UTG/UTG+1 with AK when we seem to have a general read that he's opening solid values (is that our read?). When we 3-bet, are we getting it in? Folding to a 4-bet? I think I prefer a call pre-flop, though 3-betting isn't horrible.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Flop is super standard c-bet. He can fold lots of lower pairs. If he's opening wider, he can fold lots of other hands, too. Some you beat. Some beat you. Doesn't matter. Bet and try to take down on the flop, no question.

Turn is an easy fold, almost with or without your read. With your read that villain is straightforward, it's a particularly easy fold. Bluff raising is tough because villain has shown he intends to stick around, and he's representing value hands that aren't folding. You only have 3-4 clean outs. A and K aren't clean. You are ahead of some hands, like AThh if he peeled, or w/e - we can think of plenty of possibilities - but overall, it's just a fold.

Villain's range on the turn, which I'm limiting to things that he might open/call pre, even quite loosely, is probably made and reasonably strong (Qx+ - yes he can have Qx hands is he's looser than you think, like QT, even AQ/KQ can peel flop, and of course QJ is two pair).

So think you played it fine if you folded turn.

If I held AJ, I think that's a fold too, though looks like we're getting ~ 4:1. Temping odds, but probably still a fold, and a river bet you don't want to call is likely.

One alternative line here is to call pre-flop. Not sure I love 3-betting villain in UTG/UTG+1 with AK when we seem to have a general read that he's opening solid values (is that our read?). When we 3-bet, are we getting it in? Folding to a 4-bet? I think I prefer a call pre-flop, though 3-betting isn't horrible.
Reason for the 3bet was the table was very loose and didn't wan't to encourage a pot that could go 5/6 ways after we flat. This may be a leak in my thinking. If I was in late position I would be flatting much more often but in EP with players to act behind me I had thought 3betting would be standard and folding to 4bets.

As for the hand I still don't know what to think. How many Q's can really be in his range once he flats flop? He was a very straightforward player so what can he c/c that flop with facing a 3bet from someone with a nit image? I think it's more way ahead/way behind situation where he either has a very weird played set or nothing.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 04:13 PM
Snap fold/with standard 10 second puzzlement act.

After 5 hours with him you haven't noticed much about him. I give him passive status and credit for a hand here. If he is getting out of line its the first time and that's fine when we don't have a pair.

Especially with your image.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkatingIsTough
As for the hand I still don't know what to think. How many Q's can really be in his range once he flats flop? He was a very straightforward player so what can he c/c that flop with facing a 3bet from someone with a nit image? I think it's more way ahead/way behind situation where he either has a very weird played set or nothing.
If he's playing wider than you think pre-flop, he can call flop with many Q's.

QT and Q9 are flop gut shots.

QJ was top pair and now two pair.

I don't think his hand range has to be polarized (very weak and very strong), but I do think it's ahead and you should fold.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 07:07 PM
Hmmm
This seems like a clear cut fold
But it's such a small bet compared to the pot I'm calling here sometimes to spike a 10.
I doubt your overs are good if you hit a pair.

80% fold
20% call for a 10 (only if v will pay you off for all the monies! If you hit)
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 07:13 PM
Feels like he either made us straight and is looking to not miss value or is wanting to protect a semi-monster on a board that just got really draw-heavy - either way we're beat here most of the time.
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote
09-30-2013 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stacking Chips
Hmmm
This seems like a clear cut fold
But it's such a small bet compared to the pot I'm calling here sometimes to spike a 10.
I doubt your overs are good if you hit a pair.

80% fold
20% call for a 10 (only if v will pay you off for all the monies! If you hit)
Never calling here in hopes of hitting a 10....there's $160 in the pot now and $40 to call (4 to 1)....and you're about 9 to 1 on catching a 10 (actually the 10 should be out as a good potential card since he could also be throwing the $40 on the turn as a blocker bet for a good flush draw made on the turn after looking for a straight). Trying to convince yourself that a call is good here by figuring in implied odds is just incorrect.

Villain played this hand tricky though...JJ and QQ are still in his range but given hero's image he could polarize your range and think he could stack you by calling with some mid suited connectors ('s in this instance). Still a fold here IMO though...not bluff raising and stacking off as a small favorite at best here. Think if he made his straight, he'd be betting bigger.

Played fine...now fold...
1/2: Facing turn lead after flop cbet Quote

      
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