My thought process:
Very unlikely he limped with KK or TT given the table dynamics have not had much 3bet action for the past few hours. 44 quite plausible, perhaps he limp called some hands like KT, middle pocket pairs and check raising thinking I cbetted with air. If we assign him a wider range, something like K4s, T4s.
Certainly not getting the right odds, but found the bet to be very odd.
Spoiler:
Hero calls, UTG folds.
Turn: 6
Viallain ships remainder of his stack. Hero calls. Villain flips over TT
River: 2
Surprised to see he had the TT. Guess my hand reading needs some work!
Weird, weird bet. He has $190 left in his stack, and he bets $150 of it?
I have trouble finding a fold here. His bet seems to be praying for a fold, which makes me think his range is weighted towards semi-bluffs and weird combo draws. We have 11 outs to the nut straight or nut flush, 1 out to a flush that pairs the board, and I think our A and Q outs will occasionally turn out to be good.
The bet is weird enough that I'd wait awhile and try to get a physical read, let that push me towards a call or a fold.
I'd fold here. I know the flop looks really good but this is at least 2 pair 9.5/10 times at 1-2 IMO. To me it's basically risking our whole stack with 11 outs while V likely has a lot of outs to hit the full-house. Nice hand though, I'm glad you won.
Why arent you getting the right odds? You only need 37%, you have 11 clean outs, the 3rd guy might come in also which doesn't change your equity, just adds money to the pot and decreases the equity requirement you need to get ai. If he only has sets I guess don't call, you might even be ahead against a hand like J9ss though.
I have to get better at doing calculations for sure. It's $125 to win $358 so 34%? Since we are always seeing the river in this spot we multiply our outs by 4 so 44%. Is this correct?
It depends what you're up against. Sets can lose the lead ott and boat otr, it's not just 11 outs and if we hit nothing else matters. That's why I said if he only does this with sets the pot isn't big enough.
I also counted the $40 he left behind as in the pot already because he's never folding.
I thought about doing the same with the $40 left behind. I'm not sure why V didn't just go all-in. So it's also a very V dependent situation. Thanks for the help.
We should basically treat V's bet as an all-in, which means we're getting ~1.65:1 and need ~37.7% equity to get it in here. It's hard to imagine that KK or TT are in his range here. Against a range of {44, KT, K4s, K4o, T4s, KsXs, Js9s}, we have 43.7%. Even if we remove all of the combo draws and just leave his range as {44, KT, K4s, K4o, T4s), we still have 40.7% equity, so we should be getting it in here and embracing variance. We can actually add KK and TT to his range and still have enough equity (39.2%). We basically have to narrow his range to just sets and KT for folding to be correct. UTG still being in this hand has a minor effect, but not big enough to matter IMO.
Also, for future reference, don't post results as it will skew the responses that you get.
We should basically treat V's bet as an all-in, which means we're getting ~1.65:1 and need ~37.7% equity to get it in here. It's hard to imagine that KK or TT are in his range here. Against a range of {44, KT, K4s, K4o, T4s, KsXs, Js9s}, we have 43.7%. Even if we remove all of the combo draws and just leave his range as {44, KT, K4s, K4o, T4s), we still have 40.7% equity, so we should be getting it in here and embracing variance. We can actually add KK and TT to his range and still have enough equity (39.2%). We basically have to narrow his range to just sets and KT for folding to be correct. UTG still being in this hand has a minor effect, but not big enough to matter IMO.
Also, for future reference, don't post results as it will skew the responses that you get.
Whoa! In the absence of information that V is limp/calling any two cards in the deck, it is just plain reckless to put hands like K4 and T4 in his range. There may be some bluffs, and TT def belongs. Justifying a call based on K4 and T4 being in his range ain't real smart.