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1/2 Facing Flop Donk Jam

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06-25-2019 , 08:37 AM

nit___

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 10

Typical weak passive 1/2 game, V is MAWG with headphones in, obviously not there to gambol it up, he has 130 in front, Hero covers.

UTG opens to 10, V in MP calls, Hero 3B to 50 on the button w/ KdKh. V calls.

Flop (110) 8c 6c 2d

V takes glasses off his shirt and puts them on, slowly leans in to look at the board, takes glasses off and casually announces he’s all in, so Hero has to call 80 to win 190.

In theory this has to be a call, since we are at the top of our range besides AA, but is this a time to make a exploit fold? What kind of range do weak Vs take this line with besides sets that are trying to get the money in without seeing a 3rd club come?

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06-25-2019 , 08:39 AM

Koko the munkey

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,384

If you fold, you should immediately rack up your chips, go home, and never play poker again.

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06-25-2019 , 08:40 AM

sixsevenoff

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 5,411

This is such an easy call. Villain could very easily have 99-QQ, or a hand like A

. Not to mention it's not even a big bet and action is over once you call.

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06-25-2019 , 08:52 AM

Czech Rays

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,645

Don't 3bet if you're setmining

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

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06-25-2019 , 08:54 AM

nit___

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko the munkey

If you fold, you should immediately rack up your chips, go home, and never play poker again.

Explain. What do weak passive Vs jam on dry flops like this that they didn’t 3B pre besides sets?

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06-25-2019 , 09:21 AM

weiskoda

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 199

Quote:

Originally Posted by nit___

Explain. What do weak passive Vs jam on dry flops like this that they didn’t 3B pre besides sets?

It's less than a pot-sized bet - While technically a jam/all in bet, it's not a huge overbet or anything like that. V could have set but could have many other hands as others have said that you are ahead of (and so your likelihood of winning justifies a call in this spot). Seems like a relatively easy call with action closed too.

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06-25-2019 , 09:57 AM

nit___

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by weiskoda

I see what you’re saying and it makes sense, I just feel like calling and then saying “oh well it’s a cooler” when V shows a set is lazy thinking. My thought process is V can never expect me to fold here, so he should only be doing this with his sets, which means I should be folding. I could be wrong and overthinking this spot, which is why I posted it.

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06-25-2019 , 09:58 AM

Koko the munkey

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,384

Quote:

Originally Posted by nit___

Explain. What do weak passive Vs jam on dry flops like this that they didn’t 3B pre besides sets?

You have more explaining to do than I if you think donk bet jams for 75% pot from any player type are always sets.

I agree that V's range here is very PP-heavy, but you absolutely crush the range of pairs + sets he could do this with.

I mean, if you know that he only does this with sets then fold. Why bother making a thread?

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06-25-2019 , 11:30 AM

weiskoda

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 199

Quote:

Originally Posted by nit___

At least one potential flaw in this line of thinking is that "V can never expect me to fold here" - If, e.g., he thinks that you are on a draw with AK/AQ, you might fold (and arguably should fold if that were true). That said, you were the one at the table, not us - Live reads matter a lot and if you had a really good basis to narrow his range to sets and maybe even AA (although he likely would have raised pre but not all Vs do so), folding is sensible

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06-25-2019 , 12:55 PM

#10

Koko the munkey

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,384

Note that if we include just one pocket pocket pair in V's range along with the hands that make sets, we still have very nearly 40% equity. Since we are getting ~2.3:1 pot odds, we only need about 30% pot equity to make the call.

If V is terrible enough to call off $50 to hit a set so he can win $80 more, best of luck to him in the future.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.000 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 8c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.717% 39.72% 00.00% 5898 0.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 60.283% 60.28% 00.00% 8952 0.00 { 99-88, 66, 22 }

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06-27-2019 , 08:11 AM

#11

javi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by nit___

Explain. What do weak passive Vs jam on dry flops like this that they didn’t 3B pre besides sets?

Draws. Believe it or not. I know it doesnt seem weak to jam, but I think your view of him as "weak" may be off. Fish LOVE to do this with combo draws.

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06-27-2019 , 11:52 AM

#12

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

EZ call off.

V could have TT/JJ/QQ/AK

/AQ

. If he really is tight and passive, do you think he is really calling $40 more with 88/66/22 pre? Much less likely.

Dream spot to be perfectly honest. Only hand I see that you actually lose to is AA.

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06-27-2019 , 12:10 PM

#13

FrankInGeneral

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by shorn7

EZ call off.

V could have TT/JJ/QQ/AK

/AQ

And how many times does V show up with AA here? Wouldn't he be the one 3-betting instead of calling the UTG raise and H's 3-bet? Even if he is a fish MAWG I'd expect him to get after it with AA here.

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06-27-2019 , 01:43 PM

#14

Koko the munkey

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 3,384

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrankInGeneral

And how many times does V show up with AA here? Wouldn't he be the one 3-betting instead of calling the UTG raise and H's 3-bet? Even if he is a fish MAWG I'd expect him to get after it with AA here.

If by "here" you mean flatting a 3-bet out of position for $50 of his $130, I'm going to say somewhere between "never" and "almost never".

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06-27-2019 , 01:46 PM

#15

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrankInGeneral

And how many times does V show up with AA here? Wouldn't he be the one 3-betting instead of calling the UTG raise and H's 3-bet? Even if he is a fish MAWG I'd expect him to get after it with AA here.

Not often, but not 0% either. With his stack size, it actually isn't a terrible play since a lot of boards (like this one) may get TT+ to stack off post whereas they may fold to a 4! pre.

Sort of irrelevant and was a throw away comment highlighting why this is such a slam dunk call with so much of V's range being hands that we are way ahead of.

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06-27-2019 , 02:26 PM

#16

FrankInGeneral

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koko the munkey

If by "here" you mean flatting a 3-bet out of position for $50 of his $130, I'm going to say somewhere between "never" and "almost never".

Yup. That's what I was getting at.

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