V EP($210)*40's white guy, seems talkative.* Likes stacking his chips into a giant tower. Seems slightly better than most loose passive players, but still plays a few too many hands preflop.* I haven't seen him do much other than fold postflop yet.* Probably only my second orbit at the table so reads are weak.*
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Hero CO ($300) Early 30's white guy.* Raised preflop probably 3 times in the last orbit and a half, all with legit hands.* Only one that got to showdown was AA where I won a big pot after*I checked backed the turn and called off a big river bluff.*
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V limps, another loose passive limps, I raise to $12 with T9 Only V calls, makes a comment like "I guess I'll donate, I check in the dark"
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Flop ($25)AT3
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Hero bets $15, V min-checkraises to $30, hero calls.* Bad call here?* Figure he could be making a move and decide to shut down, plus I've got some outs, although my hand really cant stand any more pressure unimproved.*
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Turn ($85)6 V leads out for $75. Dang, that's*just the right size to put me in the tank.* Why couldn't he just bet $30 again like all the other fish? I cut out a call and set it in front of my stack but behind the line.* V is looking at me shaking his head like "don't call don't call."* I ask him how much he has back and he says something like "About $100, not enough that I'm doing anything but all-in on the river."* I'm not in terrible shape against 2-pair+ here, and AA/TT get discounted slightly, but I also have some RIO because my 9/T outs aren't clean and I figure I have to stack off on the river if I call and spike one.* Hero?

I find a min raise OTF from 40s-50s Vs is usually TPmehK raising to see where they're at. I'm fine with calling here with a pair, backdoor FD, and the ability to float IP if he shuts down.

The near pot-sized lead OTT, however, is much more nutted. In fact, enough so that I put a ton of A6 in his range, as well as AT and A3.

The good news is that his last hundo is almost certainly going in if you spike your flush, so you have those IOs. The bad news is that your 9s probably aren't outs, and your tens might not be (and you are obv paying him off if you hit your T and it's not good).

Let's call it ten outs, so about 20% chance of winning an implied pot of $335. Your $75 represents 22% of that pot, so you're barely not getting the right price. When you factor in a small amount of RIOs when the T hits, it's a clear fold, imo.

Fold turn not even close. Why call the flop--you have to think of future streets there.

fold

Check raise OTF and ~1 PSB lead on the turn ... this guy isn't going anywhere ...


^^^ !!! THIS !!! ^^^

Is V going to show up with worse than middle pair and a 9 kicker?

If you're not going to fold then bluff-catcher-ship-it and pray to Hellmuth

I think we need to add 33 to his range, other than that I mostly agree. Flop call is "meh" IMO.

I figured folding turns to a psb with a flush draw is standard even with some implied odds. I did muck this hand. I was a bit curious if the flop call was decent and if I villains antics meant anything. This guy ended up being a limp/call any A type and not very bluffy so I'm pretty sure spades and maybe Ts were my only outs.

I am also in the fold turn camp on this one. Especially because you really dont know if your two pair/trips outs is clean or dirty. The big turn bet looks so nutted to me that i probably waste no time folding here. If i want to chase a draw in a hand i have a mainrule that i want to know for sure that my counted outs are infact outs, for example if we have the nutflushdraw or nut straightdraw. We can end up valuetown ourself pretty hard in similar spots like OP describes if we chase outs that very possibly can be dirty. I guess thats something i have brought into my hold em game from PLO: you get raped if your drawing to outs that are not to the nutz.

By the way i probably also like getting away from the hand on the flop when he minraises you- especially with your read that he hasnt been doing other plays than fold postflop up until this point. I just dont see how we proceed in this hand with +EV, on this board, with second pair no kicker against this villain.