Reads:
Villain 1: [$250] BB; Nitty fit or fold passive player in the BB
Villain 2:[$530] MP; LAG with spewy tendencies and average hand reading ability. He and I have years of hand history and he generally started playing straightforward against me when OOP due to the fact that i have stacked him for over 150BBs multiple times in the last few months when I have position.
Hero: [Covers] CO;Villain 1 doesn't really play past first level and is fit or fold always, so though I have little history with him, I could really care less. Villain 2 Thinks I play TAG but knows i will bet with air if i sense weakness to try and take down pots, if i feel the spot is EV.

Preflop
Villain 1: xx
Villain 2: xx
Hero: AQhh

Action - 3 limpers to Hero in the CO who opens to 15. Folds to BB who calls 13 more and Villain 2 who calls. Pot = $50

Flop:
Qs 7d 2s

Action - BB checks, Villain 2 leads $25, Hero calls. pot = $100

I range Villain 2 at Qx, 88-JJ (though JJ is discounted because he would open or at least limp 3!.) 67-A7, 77 and 22. I decide to flat to keep his dominated hands active.

Turn:
2h

Action - Villain 2 bets $50, Hero calls. Pot = $200

I again decide to flat and keep his dominated hands active. I realize i could be losing value by flatting but how many of the hands in his range can stand a raise? In the end I decided to try and get one more street of value by flatting.

River:
10c

Action - Villain 2 checks, Hero???

This seems to be pretty thin value to me. I am interested in How thin others think it is and what action they would take. I also think he will check raise bluff here a small percentage of the time feeling AQ is the bottom of my calling range and that i will fold it a percentage of the time. I doubt he thinks Ill fold KK or AA. He knows i wont fold a boat, but there aren't many i can have, as I am not opening Q2, T2,or 72.

Let's be clear. You need to put more money into the pot in this situation.

The question is how do you size it, and how do you react to a raise.

Readless, I'd probably go around $100 and expect to be called by a ton of worse hands. In the readless situation, I'd definitely be planning to bet/fold to a raise.

In this spot, against this spewy LAG who may be able to hand read and against whom you have history, I'd probably bet really small to induce and snap off a raise.

Couple of things about his hand range. I think it's just weird for him to be donking 3-way on Q72ss. That's pretty damn dry except for the spade draw. It makes me discount... well, almost any made hand. The turn 2 is obviously great for you because it discounts his sets significantly. 77 and 22 = only 4 combos now. His bet sizing on flop and turn is also pretty weak. With $530 behind, betting 1/2 pot on both flop and turn makes his line even stranger as he's repping strong but not building a large pot.

So I'm really thinking he's pretty weak here. I think you're missing spade draws and air in your flop hand range for him. 88-JJ really doesn't make a ton of sense to be honest, though it could of course explain his weak bet sizing. 7x doesn't make a ton of sense, either, for the same reason.

You almost always have the best hand here, for what that's worth.

I'd bet real small to induce a bluff raise. I'd bet $40 and snap off a raise. The $40 can of course also act as a thin value bet if he might actually call with a bad made hand. I prefer the very small bet to a meatier value bet because bet/folding against this villain who is taking this line seems so gross, but there's no doubt you're facing a stronger raising range when you size your value bet larger. So $40/call.

Flop lead is going to be a lot of weaker hands like Qx and XXss (like you said), so I like a raise otf. We're deep enough to find a fold if he jams - is he likely to slowplay a set/2p? If not then I continue on the turn and probably bet the river.

A/P his check on the river tells me he's either given up or has showdown value (more likely the latter), and we crush that range. Therefore I think we can bet $85-110 comfortably.

Also, I think you played every street well.

Well I think he would fire again with QJ or KQ, but he might plan to check call those hands for pot control. I discount those hands. I think he check folds Q6-Q3. So really I am only hoping to get called by Q9, Q8 or a strangely played and discounted KQ or QJ. I don't feel QT or Q7 fold, though i discount those too unless hes pot controlling scared I might have KK or AA and let him lead the entire time on a dry board.

So I am hoping to get called by KQ, QJ Q8 or Q9 and won't be able to fold out QT or Q7.

Anyway I bet 85 OTR and he flatted with QT.

thanks for the feedback

I think given this run out villain will be betting a decent amount of his whiffed draws/monsters. If he is checking a 77/22, it's with the intention of raising. His check on the river looks like either a give up, or more likely a marginal hand planning to bluff catch. I'd bet about 90 or so planning to fold to a raise and expecting to get called by a lot of weaker hands.

Edit: saw results, unlucky, but well played OP.

Value betting the river all day every day.

Raise flop to $85, shove turn. As played I'm betting river $85.

Do you realize we would have $430 behind effective if we raised flop to 85? I'm not hating on the flop raise, but I find it hard to believe turning our hand into a bluff and shoving 430 into 220 on the turn can be the best play.

Ya I'm not playing for stacks with one pair in this spot. BB is effective creating an SPR of 4.5. Lets say hes telegraphing a fold and isn't in the equation, then Villain 2 then were looking at 9.6 SPR. YUK!

Thought V2 had $250, just re-read the OP and mixed up V1 and V2. In that case, calling seems fine, but I would still bet the river.

You just go unlucky on the river there. It is a clear value bet spot.

I would have raised the turn to $125-$150. I would weight Vs range heavily towards weak queens and flush draws. Pocket 7s and A2 are all that beat us. We should be crushing his range. I'd raise the turn for value and to raise the price on his flush draws. Why wouldn't we raise the turn?

Against someone you described as "LAG with spewy tendencies and average hand reading ability" I would have raised the flop or the turn if for some reason I didn't raise the flop. Regarding your question about what to do on the river: I bet this 100% of the time as played. Checking back is missing out on a lot of value. He can easily have KQ, QJ, a pocket pair or maybe a flopped flush draw that picked up a T. It's an easy bet fold spot IMO. The only question is how much to bet. There's $200 in the pot & he's shown some interest. There are a lot of hands he can have that we beat so I would bet at least $100 on the river & probably fold to a raise.

I think this is a slamdunk vbet spot.

I might raise turn for value but id flat a good amount of the time also.

when he checks river id put him on Qx , missed flush draws, 88-JJ maybe.
id bet $50-$125 . the bigger I bet the more id lean towards bet/folding and the smaller I vbet id lean towards bet/calling maybe, id make a read on him once he made the c/r.

gross how he gets there with Q10, the 10 hitting river takes out a combo of Q10 and pocket 10's so I wouldn't be to worried about running into those hands too often. I think he could c/c with worse more than 50% of the time so id love the value bet here . id prob do 65-80. but if hes the type to read bigger as bluffy I could go as much as $140

I think you need to get some more money in the pot with this hand. I find that in the LLSNL games top pair top kicker type hands on drawy boards is where you make a big chunk of your money. Vs will call 2 bullets and raises up to the turn chasing draws. Some of the biggest pots I've had at 1-2/2-3/3-5/5-5 etc. have come in this situation. In these games people love to call. Gut shots, flush draws, bottom pair, top pair with a weak kicker whatever. I think at this level bet-bet-bet is almost never a bad line to take. I see a lot of advice from others on hands from this level talking about checking back a lot and pot control but against non thinking players (which is what you're gonna see at this level more times than not) you don't need to be worried with pot control. Don't be afraid to fire for 2-3 streets of value with top pair top kicker hands. It's def a +EV move at this level. When you move up or start dealing with more thinking players than yeah if you are getting called on 3 streets and you just have pair you're almost never good but LLSNL is a total different animal. Just value town people to death with these type of hands. Don't worry. They'll call and you'll be good.

Grunch

B/F $75ish OTR as played. I'm raising OTF though.

It is thin but I'd still do it. The T means a few things. You don't beat QT, QJ isn't calling 100% since it's just a bluff-catcher now that you never show up with worse kicker if you have Qx. So you're basically targeting KQ, 8 combos, not too narrow.

I didn't mention that this Villain tends to check call flops with flush draws or lead big trying to maximize FE. I really discounted flush draws based on history.

For arguments sake, lets say the turn completes a rainbow on a Q722 board. How if any does this change your thinking re: building a bigger pot?