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Old 04-12-2014, 04:41 PM   #1
HiroNakamara
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1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

In a loose, aggressive 1/2 game - stacks are deep and players are calling draws more liberally. Hero is considered LAGgy - but has mostly shown down best hands. A while back, his AA got cracked by a marginal hand on the river despite 3 streets of betting.

Hero (550) 55 in EP

UTG: Villain 1 (500) limps
Villain 2 calls
Hero calls
Villain 3 calls (150)
Villain 4 calls (1200)
Villain 5 calls (500)
Villain 6 calls (500) - button
SB completes
BB checks

Pot 18
Flop: Q 5 9

UTG- Villain 1 bets $15
Villain 2 calls
Hero raises to $60
Villain 3 calls
Villain 4 calls
Villain 5 raises to 300
Villain 6 calls
Blinds fold
Villain 1 calls
Villain 2 folds

Hero?

We've got $550 total - so about 490 behind
Since no one raised pre-flop - we can safely assume that QQ is not in play here. But not 99. This is as wet a board as you could want.
What's the best line here?
Do we fold? call? or shove?

What should we expect to see?
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Old 04-12-2014, 05:09 PM   #2
Mateo94
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Shove or fold i would shove vs any player that's not a big nit. Expect to see two pair, FD, OESD combo draws or nutz
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Old 04-12-2014, 05:18 PM   #3
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Probably never folding.

Obviously you can't call.

I'm shoving here probably 95% of the time.

The player you should fear the most is villain 5.

If he was a world class nit, you'd consider a fold.

Generally shipping pretty happily.

I think you'll find you have decent equity mutli-way because peoples' draws will block each other (when more than 1 villain has 2 spades... or if people have JT, KT, KJ, etc).
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Old 04-12-2014, 05:23 PM   #4
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Oh yeah, and you have a spade in your hand, which is nice (blocks drawing V's outs).
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Old 04-12-2014, 05:42 PM   #5
eldiesel
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

The 300 cold call by V6 is a little scary but not completely because there's no description.

I'm shoving, all V's who get ai can have spades.
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Old 04-12-2014, 07:06 PM   #6
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
The 300 cold call by V6 is a little scary but not completely because there's no description.

I'm shoving, all V's who get ai can have spades.
Agree with this. We really need some actual reads here, but I'm almost never folding unless V6 is a mega weak tight nit who might be weak enough to limp with QQ. If the only hand I'm ever worried about here is 99, then it's a fist-pump shove.
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Old 04-12-2014, 07:30 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
The 300 cold call by V6 is a little scary
You think v flats 99 there with this board? And limps the button pre? Would really like read on v5 who raised to 300 and V6.

Either way I'm prob just getting it in if we flat and ship turn we might actually lose one of the vs on a draw if board pairs so I jam here and hang on.
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Old 04-12-2014, 07:36 PM   #8
iraisetoomuch
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Well, call me a huge nit.

I'd likely fold.

We get cold 3bet.

Someone cold calls.

Can we construct some ranges that we are ahead of?
I just feel like V5 and V6 are both very strong here.
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Old 04-12-2014, 07:45 PM   #9
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Yeah without reads its kind of tough. I mean if v5 doesn't push his draws then he's top 2 or 99 like a lot. But he still has enough two pairs that we are ahead of his range.

I'm having a hard time seeing v6 limp the button then flat the 300 with 99. But perhaps he expects our laggy hero to jam?

Op more reads on 5 and 6 please.
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Old 04-12-2014, 07:47 PM   #10
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Raise pre.
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Old 04-12-2014, 08:00 PM   #11
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
You think v flats 99 there with this board? And limps the button pre? Would really like read on v5 who raised to 300 and V6.

Either way I'm prob just getting it in if we flat and ship turn we might actually lose one of the vs on a draw if board pairs so I jam here and hang on.
It's possible, I had a hand once I flopped bottom set, it was a 4way hand, one old guy flopped middle set and c/c flop and c/r turn, the winner was a guy who flopped a flush draw and c/r flop and led turn. Need some kind of description even if it's only age/race.
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Old 04-12-2014, 08:29 PM   #12
The_Black_Swan
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

I don't think you can completely eliminate QQ, especially considering all the action. Also, any player passive enough to limp QQ pf could conceivably be calling here and not raising.
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Old 04-12-2014, 08:58 PM   #13
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

I'm not a big fan of flating the min pre flop with 55 in a loose game. You only leave yourself with the flop hitting you square to win. Raising with that hand can drive out A10, KJ etc. Also if QQ is skidish an A or K may scare them off post flop - read is obviously important there. I'd test the waters with a raise pre and get some more info.
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Old 04-12-2014, 09:09 PM   #14
cAmmAndo
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Op I'm reading this again and questioning your characterization of the game. You say it's "loose and aggressive" yet we have essentially a family pot where we are concerned that the cutoff or button might have limped pocket 9s or Qs?

The only way I'm not jamming here is with specific reads on villains.
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Old 04-12-2014, 10:34 PM   #15
Lapidator
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Kinda surprised nobody "just did the math" to see what price we're getting...

Spoiler:
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Old 04-12-2014, 11:45 PM   #16
eldiesel
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

^ Agree, but why did that need to be in a spoiler?
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Old 04-12-2014, 11:47 PM   #17
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
^ Agree, but why did that need to be in a spoiler?
In case someone wanted to do the math on their own to compare to my result -- to double check me and to see if they can do it.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:36 AM   #18
JMurder3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Oh yeah, and you have a spade in your hand, which is nice (blocks drawing V's outs).
Not really. It's nice that the 5 on the flop isn't a spade, but it doesn't matter whether you have the 5 of spades or not (unless it's the only spade).

Shove, rebuy.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:44 AM   #19
JMurder3
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Actually, I take that back, too. 8 flush outs regardless. 13 ranks minus 3 board ranks (the 2 that are dead & the 3rd that would give you FH/quads) minus 2 in their hand.

If you're up against only a higher set/sets it gives you a 2nd out tho
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:45 AM   #20
Nocturnal_Joker
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Shoving here every single time
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:46 AM   #21
suitedandzooted
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

I've folded bottom set at much lower than 1/2 on flop. rofl.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:46 AM   #22
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3 View Post
Not really. It's nice that the 5 on the flop isn't a spade, but it doesn't matter whether you have the 5 of spades or not (unless it's the only spade).

Shove, rebuy.
Sure it matters.

Run PokerStove vs. likely villain ranges.

Those ranges include many flush draws.

A flush draw normally has 9 outs.

When we have the 5s, a flush draw only has 8 outs.

That's 11% fewer outs.

So when we have pocket 5's with the 5s, we have more equity. Again, the PokerStove run will show it clearly.

I don't really understand your post - what makes you say otherwise?
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:47 AM   #23
JMurder3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Sure it matters.

Run PokerStove vs. likely villain ranges.

Those ranges include many flush draws.

A flush draw normally has 9 outs.

When we have the 5s, a flush draw only has 8 outs.

That's 11% fewer outs.

So when we have pocket 5's with the 5s, we have more equity. Again, the PokerStove run will show it clearly.

I don't really understand your post - what makes you say otherwise?
When you have a set, they only have 8 flush outs. Period.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:55 AM   #24
Willyoman
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

See what you're saying. Nice.

Also us having 5s actually blocks some possible flush draws from ranges, making them slightly less likely.

So lots of different dynamics.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:57 AM   #25
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Re: 1/2 do you ever fold bottom set on the flop?

Yeah. So having the 5s actually gives us (slightly) LESS equity vs. ranges because we block various flush draws (A5ss, 65ss, etc).

Fascinating.
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