I would not call pf with K9 suited against a LAG oop unless either he is really bad or I have solid read on him. Just to avoid situations like this.


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I said that our call would be “minimally +EV at best and a lot more -EV than they (Hero) thinks it is” but yeah I can get pretty rambly

If someone says EV again in this thread...

How about fold this never. Zero respect for trip barrels from someone who appears to be playing too many hands and firing away. He knows the FD missed, and guess what, we missed our fd, and the beauty is that was just icing against this type. Fold, why because he bet thrice? He’s always gonna. Too wide, too many bets, calling down to K9 no prob. Don’t care about blocking diamonds, but I do care about unblocking QT, and blocking AK and KK and KJ. Win more than enough to call.

^this is what I was thinking. No way I’m folding this river once I get here, and it’s not even a sigh call. It’s a ‘expect to win about half the time’ call.

I think its a call now given table dynamics, but I would have dumped it pre for sure against an above average lag OOP.

Yeah because “50% VPIP, caught bluffing once in the past hour, 33% PFR” equates to hugely overbluffing triple barrels...? That’s a huge leap to make. Where did you get the information V fires away too much? If he were barreling away a lot then OP would have given a different description and he’d most likely have been caught bluffing more than once

I did advocate for a call so I’m not saying you’re wrong but making huge assumptions like these with very limited information can be super costly.

If hero is a tight player yet is calling 6x raises with K9 from OOP then hero really really really needs to work on his hand selection.

As for the hand, I'd raise flop and bet strong on this turn.

So you want to put fewer chips in the middle when your equity is high and you want to put more chips in the middle when your equity is low. Interesting approach to say the least.

Funny, I thought this was a fairly easy call. The primary reason being that there are just so, so many draws that we could have, and if he realizes this, he will bluff a lot. The fact that we block some draws doesn't outweigh their number.

We also could be in there with TT, 88 type hands that evidentally would fold. Along with any 9. And 9x suited should be pretty common for us.

So if I were V, I would bluff a lot.

I would probably have a lot of missed draws myself. I'd be surprised for 2p+ to check 3x. I guess I'm only losing if we have a jack.

Hero makes the call and villain rolls over Q T.

You’re right about dangerous assumptions. I should have expanded in my original answer as to what I do with limited but pertinent info. Because this guy has so far been barreling, I will think about that tendency and then apply it to all the possible available combos that could do it. When that number is high, it’s going to swing me toward calling a little further down than I might normally. It easily might be too much of an exploit outside normal ckc ckc ckc margins, but I’ll take that risk here when there is enough info at hand. Having the Kd means a lot to me as I said above. Happened to get this one right w the QT result, but for sure it’s hard to say for sure if call call calling is the right line.

I'd love some feedback on my analysis on this. I think a x/r on the flop is good here, because if he continues we get to see a free river if we choose, as well as if he puts us all in, we can comfortably call knowing we are flipping with all top-pair/over pair hands. If he folds, then thats also ok because we avoid playing a big pot OOP which seems fine.

Edit: I know this is not a super indepth analysis, but this is Live 1/2, often super indepth analysises can be over-complicating things.

We can't choose to get a free river because we are out of position.

Ah of course, that one went right over my head. Then I definitely like a x/c better.