1-2 , do I look for value on River?
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 158
bet/fold. He is sitting in front of you. Figure out how he's holding his mouth
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2
for this value bet to be +ev he has to call us with a worse hand more than he raises us. this criteria is fairly easily met given villain will bluff raise us like 0.1% of the time. statistically there are the same number of 5x hands are there are 8x hands but its just way less likely the 5x hands get to the river. firstly, villain may fold hands like J5o pre but play J8o. secondly villain will be more likely to fold to the flop bet and turn bet with middle pair as opposed to top pair. so by the time we get to the river it is way more likely villain has an 8 than villain has a 5. furthermore, the straight draw does not get there and villain checked the river leaving me to think his hand is not that strong. if the river is a 9 than different story as two pair and straight are now a possibility. but this river is one of the best cards we could have asked for.
as an aside i think the bet on the turn is too small. make it $26. we are good on the turn like 90% of the time and the straight draw and top pair hands are fairly inelastic to our bet sizing. if they call $20 they will call $26. this also lets us bet slightly more on the river and still get paid off when villain has 8x hands that we beat. the one villain hand that is elastic to our sizing on the turn is 5x. if we bet $26 instead of $20 we may garner some more folds. although we want the 5x to come along it also makes the river decision easier as we can put villain on a narrower range.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 145
Tell me if I'm wrong but from what I've been reading from players posting on the forum who play a lot of 1-2 and 2-5; players like the one OP is up against will call a pot size river bet as much as they'll call a half pot bet with a weaker 8.
Thoughts....
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 9,559
Hard to generalize with no reads, I'm not going to pretend that 35 is the perfect bet size. But, going pot sized looks like a big bet to a rec player. It's easier to sigh call 35 than 70-75. I would bet their calling frequency does decline noticeably.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 153
*GRUNCH*
This is a standards bet/fold spot. Villain literally never has us beat here, if he does he will raise and we can safely fold. So go ahead and continue value betting your hand. 1/3-1/2 pot sounds good imo.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 48
thanks for all the advice guys lovin all the input
