lol you can never fold here jesus

[/QUOTE]

^^^^ this.

this would only be tricky if he opened shoved the turn or some **** but nah.

Fold imo

Actually Combo wise if willian is playing Qxs+ And Kxs+ then it's 50/50. But you still beat his overall range so its a tough fold.

Is everyone awful at poker or something?

Flop is a pretty easy check.

Turn raise is bad, calling the shove is worse.

This is a scenario where you're usually ahead, but if your stack goes in you're almost always behind.

Hey. Would like to hear your reasoning behind this.

The majority so far has definitely went with a flop bet and/or calling the shove.

How can you put him on a Q when he led out on the flop and again on the turn both times better more than half pot? (I'm used to 1/2 ppl slow playing everything) I don't think I gave away my hand at all.

The king is actually a bad turn for you. Unless he has AA or Kx, which are very rare, it actually doesn't help you. It just makes it harder to get value vs worse hands, which were drawing dead if you didn't get a king.

That's why the turn raise is bad. And serious question: what do you expect to see when he jams?

Eh. I think he can have, just barely, enough Kx to make this a call. We are getting just about 3:1. So we don't need to win all that often. And people make weird random stabs on flops like this sometimes.

I don't think its horrible to call. I would guess we are fairly close to 0EV calling here.

But it might be worth folding, because he can definitely have Qx and our assumption that he bets with some of his Kx may well be incorrect. And if it is then we are never ahead here.

Agreed the turn raise is bad after he leads the flop.

Yeah you're getting 3:1. You're winning this less than 10% of the time.

Why is the flop easy check? Surely there are more worse pocket pairs in villain's range than Qx, so a bet gets value. Are you saying there's more value in the hand later if we check? Can we not get 3 streets? Are we hoping villain's air turns a worse boat? Or that our check induces bluffs?

If we check flop and villain checks back, are we betting turn and over bet shipping rivers to try to stack lower pocket pairs/turned worse boats (Zeebo)?

Why do you want to get 200BB into a single raised pot?

You're almost always beat if everything goes in. This isn't a K-7-7-6-6 board where villain can be overplaying a worse boat and it's hard to have quads. It's pretty easy to have quads here.

Good stuff. But to your question, it matters how wide V calls pre in terms of Qx.

Q2-QJ = 4*10=40 combos.

But we can reasonably discount that by at least 15-20% re: junk like Q2o, etc.

22-99 = 6*8=48 combos.

V calls all these pre. Does he stack off with these? I dunno, Zeebo is pretty spot on in my experience.

I think we find we can def bet bet bet for value.

Even if you discount 50% of those combos, villain is still 10 times more likely to have quads on this board than on a K-7-7-6-6 board. Think about that for a second.

And it's very unlikely you're getting called by worse here bombing every street. And the board is such that you don't need to protect your equity.

Yup, all good points. You are spot on about the quads point.

Btw, what's your plan for the hand after you check flop?

Obviously will depend so much on run out, action, bet sizing, etc.

But generally, if villain bets flop and has ~3/4+ PSBs, do you:

Check/call flop
Check/call turn
Check/fold river?

And if villain checks flop back, do you then

Bet/fold turn or bet/call turn assuming any V raise is large and card is a relative blank?

Haha pwned. +1

It doesn't make sense for anyone to 3jam with Kx once we ck/r a K ott imho

I don't mean this as a needle to OP, but V played this hand really well (aside from lol call pre)

I'll add though that on K7766, you will not get any value from 22-55, 88-99.

No specific point, just adding to the discussion - yes, quads are 1/10 as likely (20 becomes 2), but the combos of worse pocket pairs for value are also less likely (48 becomes 0). Of course, 7x and 6x makes up for some of that.

Against villains who never fold full houses, QQQ may actually be the more profitable flop. But much higher variance. Or maybe not. Just thinking out loud. I guess 7x and 6x will be plenty of combos, so yeah, K7766 should be way more profitable.

If villain takes the betting lead, I'm happy to just bluff-catch here and lose the min vs quads while getting the most from bluffs.

If it goes check check I assume my hand is good and bet whatever I think he will call, including possibly overbetting slightly on the river. It's way easier to get 2 streets of value than 3 here.

If at any point villain makes a huge bet/raise I'm likely just folding.

Yeah, it's exploitable. In practice, no one is going to exploit you here.

Makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the good discussion.

SABR, what's your reasoning to check flop? To induce/slowplay our hand?

B/c I think Villain reps a lot of Ax and small PPs here, it feels like we lose some thick value by checking vs described Villain. But I suppose the same argument can be made against cbetting since his range is so weak, trying to rep a bluff might be better

Combination of induce/slowplay/pot control/balance/get more information.

I check AA/KK here and bet like 99.

Because with 99, it sucks to check and then see a T, J, K, or A on the turn.

I see how you're looking at this texture. You're kinda thinking WA/WB right?

Like you'll check KK a lot on A95 but bet TT a lot on the same board.

This is as WA/WB as it gets.

This sounds good and all now we know what he has.
But in practice, are you really going to jump to bluff catching facing a half pot size bet of 15 with queens full of kings, just because you checked to him?

In my 1/2 experience players are way more likely to check back quads (for the same reason that we might be checking our fullhouse here).
So even if he checked back, it doesnt mean we are good and should start extracting value.

If i didnt raise, i would pretty much be calling all streets short of an all in, right? In practice, can anyone really find a call/call/fold here for up to 200 BB?

Just feel like its a hand that i have no idea where i am until he 3-bet me all in.

You bet stuff like 99 so you don't freeroll 6 outers I assume, I see. Thanks mucho