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Old 12-27-2015, 03:39 AM   #1
SuckoutKing
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$1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

$1/2 Blinds. 10-handed. Game is generally very loose preflop.

Tight Reg (UTG+1): $300
Hero (HJ): $900
LAG Fish (CO): $300
--Fish overplays postflop and way too willing to go AI with one pair. I've only played with him about 50 hands total at this point.
TAG Reg (BB): $900

I have Q Q.

UTG raises to $10. I decide to smooth call with QQ for 2 reasons:
a) CO/BT/SB are all fish.
b) Due to the game conditions, UTG+1's raising range is pretty strong. I'd estimate 99+, AQ+.

CO and BB see the flop with me. Pot $41. Board is 9 7 2. BB checks. UTG checks (clearly surrendering). I bet $25.
CO calls. BB check-raises to $125. UTG folds.
$216 in pot. $100 to me.

About the BB:
1. He always bets/raises big...sizing is not an obvious tip-off.
2. He would have 3B Pre w/ KK+ for sure.
3. He would play many SCs here but he'd get away from trash suited hands.
4. He had already been caught twice on big multi-street bluffs that night. The latest was Flop xr, Turn xr, River bet half an hour earlier.
5. I'm 100% sure if I call flop I'll see a turn bet. A river bet is likely but not guaranteed if the board gets nasty.

BB has seen me take shots at MW pots before with weak draws or air, although I'm not sure if he understands my motives in those cases.

What should I do with such deep effective stacks and the fish behind me?

Last edited by SuckoutKing; 12-27-2015 at 03:43 AM. Reason: spelling/punctuation
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Old 12-27-2015, 05:07 AM   #2
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

About the BB:
1. Is he known to c/r with nuttin' but the nut flush draw?
Based on your description I say yes?

1.a. If he does & the turn doesn't bring a spade, is he continuing with another bet? You said 100% of the time......
Based on your description I say yes?

2. Would he raise pre with AK off or suited?
Based on your description I say yes?

3. I assume he'd c/r with 8s6s, but would he do it with other suits?
Based on your description I say yes?

3a. Does he consider 86o trash?
Based on your description I do not know.

5. He calls pre with any pocket pair?
Based on your description I say yes?

5a. Does he know you well enough to be confident that you'd bet the flop so he could c/r with his flopped set?
I do not know.

5b. If not, wouldn't he more inclined to bet 1/2 pot [which is ~$35 raked].
I'm not sure.

5c. Or, does he take his 2 Vs as the type to read that bet from him as a pair & if the two of have nuttin' but overs, that you'd fold?
I'm not sure.

6. Will he c/r with TT-QQ otf?
Based on your description I say yes?

6a. What about As9x, As7x or As2x?
Based on your description I say yes to As9x, not sure about the other two
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Old 12-27-2015, 05:57 AM   #3
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

[QUOTE=ZuneIt;48959011]
About the BB:
1. Is he known to c/r with nuttin' but the nut flush draw? No, but I'm not 100% sure.

1.a. If he does & the turn doesn't bring a spade, is he continuing with another bet? You said 100% of the time...... If he does, then yes.

2. Would he raise pre with AK off or suited? Yes.

3. I assume he'd c/r with 8s6s, but would he do it with other suits? I believe he'd c/r with combo draws. But with only an oesd or fd, I'm assuming he would not.

3a. Does he consider 86o trash? Yes.

5. He calls pre with any pocket pair? Yes.

5a. Does he know you well enough to be confident that you'd bet the flop so he could c/r with his flopped set? We've played together a lot. He never, ever donk bets. On a side note, he seems to dislike me personally, but he knows I'm a significant winner overall.

5b. If not, wouldn't he more inclined to bet 1/2 pot [which is ~$35 raked]. N/A. But he'd bet pot if he was betting. Time charge game if it's relevant.

5c. Or, does he take his 2 Vs as the type to read that bet from him as a pair & if the two of have nuttin' but overs, that you'd fold?
N/A. Regarding his perception when he c/r flop:
He would probably perceive me as somebody who'd fold a ton of made hands...probably everything less than tptk.
He would assume I'd call oesd's and fd's. I don't know if he recognizes that 86s/T8s/J8s are not really in my range.
He likely believes the fish will call a ton.


6. Will he c/r with TT-QQ otf? Probably. I'm not confident QQ is still in his range though. Let's assume he 3bets QQ preflop, leaving us with a c/r of TT/JJ.

6a. What about As9x, As7x or As2x? Probably not.
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Old 12-27-2015, 06:12 AM   #4
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

To simplify my thought process on his play a little bit:

If it's HU, his style is to polarize his c/r here to hands he wants to get all-in with and bluffs that he can easily fold. He would definitely be willing to go all the way with combo draws and two pair plus. I think he would feel very confident about TT/JJ, although he'd probably reconsider and let them go if I shoved turn. I don't know if AX is a hand he's willing to get all-in, but I don't think it is.

He is good enough to realize his fold equity plummeted with the fish's flop call. Thus, I don't think he would c/r any of his normal bluffs that could be easily folded. But I'm not sure. He has demonstrated in the past that he has no fear.
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Old 12-27-2015, 07:34 AM   #5
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuckoutKing
He is good enough to realize his fold equity plummeted with the fish's flop call. Thus, I don't think he would c/r any of his normal bluffs that could be easily folded. But I'm not sure. He has demonstrated in the past that he has no fear.
Well then, we have to narrow him down to JJ,TT,99,77,22 Ts8s, 97s [4 hands] 8s6s.

You stated: "I believe he'd c/r with combo draws. But with only an oesd or fd, I'm assuming he would not." - so nut flush draws are out.

I've never actually done the math at the table to determine my equity, but with this narrow of a range it shouldn't be too difficult. We'd just have to have some equities vs. specific hands memorized.

The way I'd look at it now - I have 6 combos of JJ or TT crushed; I have a chance to catch up vs. 97 along with a bdfd [if the fish doesn't have a higher one] & I'm <even money vs. Ts8s & 8s6s.

However, if he has JJ/TT or 97 & the 3s comes ott & he bets, what then? Throw away all our equity??? So, we'd have to call when he has the flush......'cause we'd have 7 outs?

If he has a set & the 3s comes on the turn, is he shoving? Then we're payin' to catch 2 outs.

So, you have 6 combos [JJ or TT] you have crushed & 6 combos [97s [4] Ts8s & 8s6s] & 3 ways to make a set that he's shovin' otf if you 3!

But why would you?! That's 15 possible combos. 40% of the time you're crushin' him [90% favorite] & 40% of the time you have ~36% equity vs. OESFD & 97s & 20% of the time you're crushed [12% equity] vs. a set.

That's [.4*.9]+[.4*.36]+[.12*.2] = 52.4% which is close to the actual equity....there's an easier way to do it in your head over the table, but the stress of it all!

But that doesn't really matter. The problem is - you don't know where you stand when he bets the turn - you're clueless as to how much equity you have - because his bet sizing is no indication of his holding.

So.....fold away your ~53% equity otf.....or.......shove.....and say "Adios" to $900 ~47% of the time??

This is all assuming he's gonna' bet his 2 pair hand or set ott when the flush comes & that it is not going to be significantly less/more than when he flushes ott & that he bets the same ott when he's on a flush draw & misses ott.

In other words Sorry, I don't know how to play it, other than to shove......damn ! That's a lotta' money! But then.......I don't play 2/5NLHE

Who shoves with nuttin' but an overpair when they 'know' what they're up against and a 'fish' yet to act? How the heck will he react?!
I don't know if I could shove with AsAx & it was a 1/2NL game & I had $400 left in front of me vs. that range.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 12-27-2015 at 07:48 AM.
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Old 12-27-2015, 10:02 AM   #6
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Grunch:

It's a fold unless this guy is gonna go HAM with a hand like AJss or A2ss. It looks like you're fairly strong (because you've bet into the world from the middle of the pack) and yet he's check/raising the world. This is a 2 pair plus, or a hand like a T8ss that has gobs of equity against us. He may think you're weak due to your history, but he's gotta contend with the CO as well. Unless the BB is clueless, check/raising a weakish draw in this spot is suicide.

Oh, 3-bet pre. QQ is well ahead of UTG'S opening range. I understand we have weak players behind us but we are gonna be OOP against them.
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Old 12-27-2015, 11:18 AM   #7
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Grunch:

It's a fold unless this guy is gonna go HAM with a hand like AJss or A2ss. It looks like you're fairly strong (because you've bet into the world from the middle of the pack) and yet he's check/raising the world. This is a 2 pair plus, or a hand like a T8ss that has gobs of equity against us. He may think you're weak due to your history, but he's gotta contend with the CO as well. Unless the BB is clueless, check/raising a weakish draw in this spot is suicide.

Oh, 3-bet pre. QQ is well ahead of UTG'S opening range. I understand we have weak players behind us but we are gonna be OOP against them.

+1

3-bet pre is a must. All Vs' ranges are better defined. What were you going to do when A or K arrives on the flop?

As is, hero's hand is under represented, which is part of the reason you don't have a clue where you stand. At low stakes, ~60% of the time someone X/R on the flop, it is 2-pair+ (unless there is history with the V indicating otherwise). So just surrender while you still have chips.
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Old 12-27-2015, 11:40 AM   #8
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

this is trivial....shove
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Old 12-27-2015, 12:01 PM   #9
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

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Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious View Post
this is trivial....shove
worst option. (besides raise/folding I guess)
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Old 12-27-2015, 01:16 PM   #10
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

I don't think a shove makes sense because he basically only calls when I'm beat unless he's feeling heroic with TT/JJ. When I play with the equity, I find I'm at 43% if we include 6 combos of TT/JJ along with combo draws 65, 86, T8, and JT. But I feel like against a good reg willing to attack with non-nut hands, I might be underestimating his aggression with hands like A9, AJ, or KQ.

The problem as I see it is that I can never call the $100 on the flop unless I intend to call the turn (except maybe on the Jx/Tx/8x...the equity drops in those 3 scenarios). So I'm essentially deciding whether to commit ~$300 on almost all boards. With the hindsight to think through everything, here are the 3 options I'm considering most strongly (in order):

a) Call flop/shove turn.
b) Call flop/call turn/call river.
c) Fold flop.
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Old 12-27-2015, 02:16 PM   #11
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

I didn't count the flush draw/gutshot combos.
Still, vs. JJ/TT, the three possible sets & those 4 specific spade draws, poker cruncher shows you to be the one with 55.5% equity & V with 44.5%.

V should also be playing any suited 97, which is 2 pair. Would he not c/r with that? Include it & you still have ~53% equity. Adding AJs doesn't change the equity much & KQs is out because you have the Qs.

How do you come up with you having only 43% equity?
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Old 12-27-2015, 02:35 PM   #12
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

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Originally Posted by SuckoutKing View Post
I don't think a shove makes sense because he basically only calls when I'm beat unless he's feeling heroic with TT/JJ. When I play with the equity, I find I'm at 43% if we include 6 combos of TT/JJ along with combo draws 6<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:5<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:, 8<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:6<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:, T<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:8<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:, and J<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:T<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:. But I feel like against a good reg willing to attack with non-nut hands, I might be underestimating his aggression with hands like A9, A<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:J<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:, or K<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:Q<img /2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR:.

The problem as I see it is that I can never call the $100 on the flop unless I intend to call the turn (except maybe on the Jx/Tx/8x...the equity drops in those 3 scenarios). So I'm essentially deciding whether to commit ~$300 on almost all boards. With the hindsight to think through everything, here are the 3 options I'm considering most strongly (in order):

a) Call flop/shove turn.
b) Call flop/call turn/call river.
c) Fold flop.
He can't have A9ss or KQss.

Do you think A) flatting TT/JJ pre AND is he check raising these hands big OTF? Let's say he has these scenarios at MOST 20% of the time (I think that's generous).

Against a single range of 1 combo each of TT/JJ, sets, 97 suited and big draws/Broadway cards with Spades we are 35% and we are getting 2-1. So it's close and probably a call on the flop. However, it never occurred to me TT/JJ would ever take this line. So while it's still close, it's a fold if we remove TT/JJ because we only have 28% equity and we need 33%.
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Old 12-27-2015, 07:58 PM   #13
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Quote:
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He can't have A9ss or KQss.

Do you think A) flatting TT/JJ pre AND is he check raising these hands big OTF? Let's say he has these scenarios at MOST 20% of the time (I think that's generous).

Against a single range of 1 combo each of TT/JJ, sets, 97 suited and big draws/Broadway cards with Spades we are 35% and we are getting 2-1. So it's close and probably a call on the flop. However, it never occurred to me TT/JJ would ever take this line. So while it's still close, it's a fold if we remove TT/JJ because we only have 28% equity and we need 33%.
I meant more like A9 or KJ. Of course you're right he can't have KQ. Truth be told, I am not sure how he'd play TT/JJ or tptk. It's possible he's simply looking at a hand like TT or A9 and thinking, "I'm way ahead of the ranges here and happy to get all-in against the fish." Or, "I need to play my value hands fast on such a wet board." My read is that he polarizes ranges (based on past observations), but I could be wrong about that too.

One last point...the BB doesn't squeeze TT/JJ here b/c he's afraid of the tight reg's UTG+1 range. Once UTG+1 checks the flop, there's a much different dynamic.

Result:
BB c/r to $125. Everyone folds. I frown.
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Old 12-28-2015, 12:34 AM   #14
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

It was brought up a couple times. I HATE flatting with QQ here. You really need to 3b pre.


As played, fold. You still have players behind, and 1p. I think going MW to a flop at 1/2 is probably a bad idea. We are gonna be stepping on landmines. Now, you have been CR by BB, and you have no idea where you are. He probably has 2p+. Even if he doesn't have 2p+, how much heat can you take on this board?

You seem to be a deep thinker. Why would you want to invite a bunch of fish into the pot when you have QQ? 1/2 we don't need to be fancy.


Not 3b seems to be of little consideration to you, in all of the typing you have done about ranges, etc. This is where I think the hand went wrong. You didn't clearly define ranges, and take control of the hand. Therefore, you see a flop 4 way, and I suspect you were outflopped.


Just my input, with all due respect.
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Old 12-28-2015, 06:10 AM   #15
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

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It was brought up a couple times. I HATE flatting with QQ here. You really need to 3b pre.

You seem to be a deep thinker. Why would you want to invite a bunch of fish into the pot when you have QQ? 1/2 we don't need to be fancy.

Not 3b seems to be of little consideration to you, in all of the typing you have done about ranges, etc. This is where I think the hand went wrong. You didn't clearly define ranges, and take control of the hand. Therefore, you see a flop 4 way, and I suspect you were outflopped.
You're right, I haven't really addressed this. Here are some reasons I flat call.

1) OR has an estimated 5.1% opening range of 99+, AQ+. If he calls half the time, he has QQ+, AK. I have 40% hot/cold equity vs. that range. If he folds 2/3rd of hands, he might have QQ+, AKs (28.5% equity) or JJ+ (40% equity). His tight open-raise allows him to unexploitably continue with a range that fairly dominates me. In short, my 3bet for value isn't getting value.

2) OR is a solid regular who knows me fairly well. I don't have a significant skill edge against him, and a 3bet actually narrows my range so much that I lose a lot of that skill edge as well as positional advantage.

3) In deep stack poker, starting hands are much less important to overall EV, and deception increases in value. While I don't consider 150bb to be very deep, it certainly isn't shallow.

4) I still don't understand why I want to knock out the players who will actually stack off bad with hands like KT/AT on Txx. I'd also be pretty ecstatic if one of the aggro fish behind me squeeze 3bets. They are far more likely to make a massive mistake if I cold call.

5) I am fine putting myself in difficult positions because I almost always have a skill-advantage postflop at these stakes, even if I'm no expert. In fact, a loose game with players who spew postflop encourages a skilled player to keep the pot cheap early. I'm passing up some preflop profit to earn a larger expected profit postflop.

I think a very good argument could be made for flatting 100% of my range in this spot. Without any bluffs to create balance and an incredibly narrow value range, I think it's better to remain deceptive and strengthen my cold calling range. It would be a totally different scenario if OR was a fish with a wide range because I'd have significant preflop value along with reasons to isolate.
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Old 12-28-2015, 06:25 AM   #16
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

If I had to do it over again, I'd call the $100 on the flop. I'd call every turn except non-spade Tx/Jx. If anything 9 or less hits, I'll call the river and hope for a busted flush, tptk, TT, or JJ, or some other overplayed value hand.

The tough decision comes on the river if a spade, King, or Ace falls and he bets. I'm not sure he barrels there with one pair, and I don't believe he has enough air to make calling down worthwhile on the river. It would suck to make that fold, but I'm confident it would be the right thing to do.
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Old 12-28-2015, 05:06 PM   #17
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

The problem with calling flop is we've got less than a PSB left. If we're going with it, we've got to decide now. As you've mentioned, a lot of turn cards are gonna suck because they hit villain's range. If you think he's got enough combo draws in his range, go ahead and stick it in now. He's never folding a big draw at this point, so go ahead and ride the variance train. It's very close for sure either way.

BTW: 150bb's effective is not deep-stacked.
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:26 PM   #18
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
The problem with calling flop is we've got less than a PSB left. If we're going with it, we've got to decide now. As you've mentioned, a lot of turn cards are gonna suck because they hit villain's range. If you think he's got enough combo draws in his range, go ahead and stick it in now. He's never folding a big draw at this point, so go ahead and ride the variance train. It's very close for sure either way..
It's a bit confusing with 2 different villains (TAG Reg and LAG Fish), but we have effective starting stacks of $900 with the Villain who x/r out of BB (the TAG Reg). If we assume the fish folds for $100 more, the pot is $315 and we each have ~$765 behind. If the LAG Fish calls the flop, he's probably committing his last ~$165 on the turn, but I think that is actually good for us b/c his range is quite weak.

Last edited by SuckoutKing; 12-28-2015 at 08:27 PM. Reason: clarification
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:35 PM   #19
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

so you shoved and he folded?
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:49 PM   #20
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

I misread stack sizes. Calling here otf is fine, I thought we were 150bb eff.

Shoving flop would be a massive overplay.
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Old 12-29-2015, 12:28 AM   #21
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

TAG Reg (BB) c/r to $125.

Tight Reg (UTG +1) folded as expected.

I folded.

LAG Fish (CO) folded.

And on to the next hand...
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Old 12-29-2015, 10:21 AM   #22
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Re: $1/2 Deep Stacks, Overpair vs. Flop XR

Villain could easily be doing this with A2 or 108. I get the feeling it could be one of these hands. This really does not look like 97/22. The raise is too big. It looks like it does NOT want to get called. I'd rethink this line of reasoning if the opponent was advanced enough to think ahead here, but I doubt much high level thinking goes on in your typical live 1/2 game. If he had 97/22 (or even 99/77), he would put in a value c/r to $75-$100, and then bet hard OTT to actually make you go away after donating some chips. One hundred on top seems like he wants to blow you out of the pot.

I would raise to $275-$325 and MAYBE fold to a shove. At this point, he could (should) even fold 97. Only the absolute top of his range would go over the top. If he's a good TAG, I would do this post-flop 3-bet with the info on points 4 and 5 alone. It's better than calling the hundred and risking filling a draw.

You could employ some meta game here. How much is he in for tonight? What about you? Some players will really harden like a rock when it gets near their stop loss point. Are you okay with bet/folding with 40% of your stack committed (10+25+325/900)? What about him? Does he play scared with a deep stack? I've pulled similar moves and gotten bottom sets to fold at 1/2 (I know, lol) playing effective 550BB against tighties, only because I knew they were actually afraid to lose their stack (they would definitely go south, if it was allowed). I think this move could work here too.
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