Quote:
Originally Posted by SuckoutKing
He is good enough to realize his fold equity plummeted with the fish's flop call. Thus, I don't think he would c/r any of his normal bluffs that could be easily folded. But I'm not sure. He has demonstrated in the past that he has no fear.
Well then, we have to narrow him down to JJ,TT,99,77,22 Ts8s, 97s [4 hands] 8s6s.
You stated:
"I believe he'd c/r with combo draws. But with only an oesd or fd, I'm assuming he would not." - so nut flush draws are out.
I've never actually done the math at the table to determine my equity, but with this narrow of a range it shouldn't be too difficult. We'd just have to have some equities vs. specific hands memorized.
The way I'd look at it now - I have 6 combos of JJ or TT crushed; I have a chance to catch up vs. 97 along with a bdfd [if the fish doesn't have a higher one] & I'm <even money vs. Ts8s & 8s6s.
However, if he has JJ/TT or 97 & the 3s comes ott & he bets, what then? Throw away all our equity??? So, we'd have to call when he has the flush......'cause we'd have 7 outs?
If he has a set & the 3s comes on the turn, is he shoving? Then we're payin' to catch 2 outs.
So, you have 6 combos [JJ or TT] you have crushed & 6 combos [97s [4] Ts8s & 8s6s] & 3 ways to make a set that he's shovin' otf if you 3!
But why would you?! That's 15 possible combos. 40% of the time you're crushin' him [90% favorite] & 40% of the time you have ~36% equity vs. OESFD & 97s & 20% of the time you're crushed [12% equity] vs. a set.
That's [.4*.9]+[.4*.36]+[.12*.2] = 52.4% which is close to the actual equity....there's an easier way to do it in your head over the table, but the stress of it all!
But that doesn't really matter. The problem is - you don't know where you stand when he bets the turn - you're clueless as to how much equity you have - because his bet sizing is no indication of his holding.
So.....fold away your ~53% equity otf.....or.......shove.....and say "Adios" to $900 ~47% of the time??
This is all assuming he's gonna' bet his 2 pair hand or set ott when the flush comes & that it is not going to be significantly less/more than when he flushes ott & that he bets the same ott when he's on a flush draw & misses ott.
In other words Sorry, I don't know how to play it, other than to shove......damn ! That's a lotta' money! But then.......I don't play 2/5NLHE
Who shoves with nuttin' but an overpair when they 'know' what they're up against and a 'fish' yet to act? How the heck will he react?!
I don't know if I could shove with AsAx & it was a 1/2NL game & I had $400 left in front of me vs. that range.
Last edited by ZuneIt; 12-27-2015 at 07:48 AM.